Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.     

建筑和建造部门:可持续的要素

在全球社会为实现真正的可持续性所做的努力中,建筑和建造业比其他产业部门的潜力可能都要大.     

Frequency of sublethal injury in a deepwater ophiuroid, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ophiacantha bidentata</Emphasis>, an important component of western Atlantic <Emphasis Type="Italic">Lophelia</Emphasis> reef communities

The occurrence and relative abundance of tissue (arm) regeneration in the ophiuroid, Ophiacantha bidentata (Retzius), was examined in individuals collected primarily among colonies of the deep-water coral Lophelia pertusa off the southeastern United States. Seven deep-water coral sites (384–756 m), located between Cape Lookout, NC, and Cape Canaveral, FL, were sampled in June 2004 using a manned submersible. The presence of regenerative tissue was evaluated by visual inspection of each individual ophiuroid, and the proportion of regenerating arms per individual was examined relative to size of individual, geographic location, and depth of collection. Ophiacantha bidentata, the dominant brittle star collected, commonly displayed signs of sublethal injury with over 60% of individuals displaying some evidence of regeneration. These levels of regeneration rival those reported for shallow-water ophiuroids. Larger individuals (>6.5 mm disc size) had a higher incidence of regeneration than smaller individuals. Size of individual and percent of regeneration were negatively correlated with depth. Although O. bidentata was significantly less abundant in southern versus northern sites, ophiuroid abundance did not appear to be influenced by amount or density of coral substratum. Presence of dense aggregations of O. bidentata indicates that they are an important component of the invertebrate assemblage associated with deep-water coral habitat especially in the northern part of the study area. Assuming that observed frequencies of injury and subsequent regeneration represent predation events then dense ophiuroid aggregations in deep-water coral habitats represent an important renewable trophic resource within these communities.     

Habitat edge, land management, and rates of brood parasitism in tallgrass prairie.

Bird populations in North America's grasslands have declined sharply in recent decades. These declines are traceable, in large part, to habitat loss, but management of tallgrass prairie also has an impact. An indirect source of decline potentially associated with management is brood parasitism by the Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater), which has had substantial negative impacts on many passerine hosts. Using a novel application of regression trees, we analyzed an extensive five-year set of nest data to test how management of tallgrass prairie affected rates of brood parasitism. We examined seven landscape features that may have been associated with parasitism: presence of edge, burning, or grazing, and distance of the nest from woody vegetation, water, roads, or fences. All five grassland passerines that we included in the analyses exhibited evidence of an edge effect: the Grasshopper Sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum), Henslow's Sparrow (A. henslowii), Dickcissel (Spiza americana), Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus), and Eastern Meadowlark (Sturnella magna). The edge was represented by narrow strips of woody vegetation occurring along roadsides cut through tallgrass prairie. The sparrows avoided nesting along these woody edges, whereas the other three species experienced significantly higher (1.9-5.3x) rates of parasitism along edges than in prairie. The edge effect could be related directly to increase in parasitism rate with decreased distance from woody vegetation. After accounting for edge effect in these three species, we found evidence for significantly higher (2.5-10.5x) rates of parasitism in grazed plots, particularly those burned in spring to increase forage, than in undisturbed prairie. Regression tree analysis proved to be an important tool for hierarchically parsing various landscape features that affect parasitism rates. We conclude that, on the Great Plains, rates of brood parasitism are strongly associated with relatively recent road cuts, in that edge effects manifest themselves through the presence of trees, a novel habitat component in much of the tallgrass prairie. Grazing is also a key associate of increased parasitism. Areas managed with prescribed fire, used frequently to increase forage for grazing cattle, may experience higher rates of brood parasitism. Regardless, removing trees and shrubs along roadsides and refraining from planting them along new roads may benefit grassland birds.     

A methodology for assessing blast protection in explosive ordnance disposal bomb suits.

To reduce human casualties associated with explosive ordnance disposal, a wide range of protective wear has been designed to shield against the blast effects of improvised explosive devices and munitions. In this study, 4 commercially available bomb suits, representing a range of materials and armor masses, were evaluated against 0.227 and 0.567 kg of spherical C-4 explosives to determine the level of protection offered to the head, neck, and thorax. A Hybrid III dummy, an instrumented human surrogate [1], was tested with and without protection from the 4 commercially available bomb suits. 20 tests with the dummy torso mounted to simulate a kneeling position were performed to confirm repeatability and robustness of the dummies, as well as to evaluate the 4 suits. Correlations between injury risk assessments based on past human or animal injury model data and various parameters such as bomb suit mass, projected area, and dummy coverage area were drawn.