Exploring the effects of multiple management objectives and exotic species on great lakes food webs and contaminant dynamics

A simulation model was developed to describe linkages among fish food web, nutrient cycling, and contaminant processes in the southern basin of Lake Michigan. The model was used to examine possible effects of management actions and an exotic zooplankter (Bythotrephes) on Lake Michigan food web and contaminant dynamics. The model predicts that contaminant concentrations in salmonines will decrease by nearly 20% ifBythotrephes successfully establishes itself in the lake. The model suggests that this decrease will result from lowered transfer efficiencies within the food web and increased flux of contaminants to the hypolimnion. The model also indicates that phosphorus management will have little effect on contaminant concentrations in salmonines. The modeling exercise helped identify weaknesses in the data base (e.g., incomplete information on contaminant loadings and on the biomass, production, and ecological efficiencies of dominant organisms) that should be corrected in order to make reliable management decisions.     

Applying assessments of adaptive capacity to inform natural-resource management in a changing climate

Adaptive capacity (AC)—the ability of a species to cope with or accommodate climate change—is a critical determinant of species vulnerability. Using information on species’ AC in conservation planning is key to ensuring successful outcomes. We identified connections between a list of species’ attributes (e.g., traits, population metrics, and behaviors) that were recently proposed for assessing species’ AC and management actions that may enhance AC for species at risk of extinction. Management actions were identified based on evidence from the literature, a review of actions used in other climate adaptation guidance, and our collective experience in diverse fields of global-change ecology and climate adaptation. Selected management actions support the general AC pathways of persist in place or shift in space, in response to contemporary climate change. Some actions, such as genetic manipulations, can be used to directly alter the ability of species to cope with climate change, whereas other actions can indirectly enhance AC by addressing ecological or anthropogenic constraints on the expression of a species’ innate abilities to adapt. Ours is the first synthesis of potential management actions directly linked to AC. Focusing on AC attributes helps improve understanding of how and why aspects of climate are affecting organisms, as well as the mechanisms by which management interventions affect a species’ AC and climate change vulnerability. Adaptive-capacity-informed climate adaptation is needed to build connections among the causes of vulnerability, AC, and proposed management actions that can facilitate AC and reduce vulnerability in support of evolving conservation paradigms.