Objective: Vehicle safety rating systems aim firstly to inform consumers about safe vehicle choices and, secondly, to encourage vehicle manufacturers to aspire to safer levels of vehicle performance. Primary rating systems (that measure the ability of a vehicle to assist the driver in avoiding crashes) have not been developed for a variety of reasons, mainly associated with the difficult task of disassociating driver behavior and vehicle exposure characteristics from the estimation of crash involvement risk specific to a given vehicle. The aim of the current study was to explore different approaches to primary safety estimation, identifying which approaches (if any) may be most valid and most practical, given typical data that may be available for producing ratings.
Methods: Data analyzed consisted of crash data and motor vehicle registration data for the period 2003 to 2012: 21,643,864 observations (representing vehicle-years) and 135,578 crashed vehicles. Various logistic models were tested as a means to estimate primary safety: Conditional models (conditioning on the vehicle owner over all vehicles owned); full models not conditioned on the owner, with all available owner and vehicle data; reduced models with few variables; induced exposure models; and models that synthesised elements from the latter two models.
Results: It was found that excluding young drivers (aged 25 and under) from all primary safety estimates attenuated some high risks estimated for make/model combinations favored by young people. The conditional model had clear biases that made it unsuitable. Estimates from a reduced model based just on crash rates per year (but including an owner location variable) produced estimates that were generally similar to the full model, although there was more spread in the estimates. The best replication of the full model estimates was generated by a synthesis of the reduced model and an induced exposure model.
Conclusions: This study compared approaches to estimating primary safety that could mimic an analysis based on a very rich data set, using variables that are commonly available when registered fleet data are linked to crash data. This exploratory study has highlighted promising avenues for developing primary safety rating systems for vehicle makes and models. 相似文献
World governments have committed to increase the global protected areas coverage by 2020, but the effectiveness of this commitment for protecting biodiversity depends on where new protected areas are located. Threshold‐ and complementarity‐based approaches have been independently used to identify important sites for biodiversity. We brought together these approaches by performing a complementarity‐based analysis of irreplaceability in important bird and biodiversity areas (IBAs), which are sites identified using a threshold‐based approach. We determined whether irreplaceability values are higher inside than outside IBAs and whether any observed difference depends on known characteristics of the IBAs. We focused on 3 regions with comprehensive IBA inventories and bird distribution atlases: Australia, southern Africa, and Europe. Irreplaceability values were significantly higher inside than outside IBAs, although differences were much smaller in Europe than elsewhere. Higher irreplaceability values in IBAs were associated with the presence and number of restricted‐range species; number of criteria under which the site was identified; and mean geographic range size of the species for which the site was identified (trigger species). In addition, IBAs were characterized by higher irreplaceability values when using proportional species representation targets, rather than fixed targets. There were broadly comparable results when measuring irreplaceability for trigger species and when considering all bird species, which indicates a good surrogacy effect of the former. Recently, the International Union for Conservation of Nature has convened a consultation to consolidate global standards for the identification of key biodiversity areas (KBAs), building from existing approaches such as IBAs. Our results informed this consultation, and in particular a proposed irreplaceability criterion that will allow the new KBA standard to draw on the strengths of both threshold‐ and complementarity‐based approaches. 相似文献
Tourism and hunting both generate substantial revenues for communities and private operators in Africa, but few studies have quantitatively examined the trade‐offs and synergies that may result from these two activities. We evaluated financial and in‐kind benefit streams from tourism and hunting on 77 communal conservancies in Namibia from 1998 to 2013, where community‐based wildlife conservation has been promoted as a land‐use that complements traditional subsistence agriculture. We used data collected annually for all communal conservancies to characterize whether benefits were derived from hunting or tourism. We classified these benefits into 3 broad classes and examined how benefits flowed to stakeholders within communities under the status quo and under a simulated ban on hunting. Across all conservancies, total benefits from hunting and tourism increased at roughly the same rate, although conservancies typically started generating benefits from hunting within 3 years of formation as opposed to after 6 years for tourism. Disaggregation of data revealed that the main benefits from hunting were income for conservancy management and food in the form of meat for the community at large. The majority of tourism benefits were salaried jobs at lodges. A simulated ban on trophy hunting significantly reduced the number of conservancies that could cover their operating costs, whereas eliminating income from tourism did not have as severe an effect. Given that the benefits generated from hunting and tourism typically begin at different times in a conservancy's life‐span (earlier vs. later, respectively) and flow to different segments of local communities, these 2 activities together may provide the greatest incentives for conservation on communal lands in Namibia. A singular focus on either hunting or tourism would reduce the value of wildlife as a competitive land‐use option and have grave repercussions for the viability of community‐based conservation efforts in Namibia, and possibly other parts of Africa. 相似文献
Species monitoring, defined here as the repeated, systematic collection of data to detect long-term changes in the populations of wild species, is a vital component of conservation practice and policy. We created a database of nearly 1200 schemes, ranging in start date from 1800 to 2018, to review spatial, temporal, taxonomic, and methodological patterns in global species monitoring. We identified monitoring schemes through standardized web searches, an online survey of stakeholders, in-depth national searches in a sample of countries, and a review of global biodiversity databases. We estimated the total global number of monitoring schemes operating at 3300–15,000. Since 2000, there has been a sharp increase in the number of new schemes being initiated in lower- and middle-income countries and in megadiverse countries, but a decrease in high-income countries. The total number of monitoring schemes in a country and its per capita gross domestic product were strongly, positively correlated. Schemes that were active in 2018 had been running for an average of 21 years in high-income countries, compared with 13 years in middle-income countries and 10 years in low-income countries. In high-income countries, over one-half of monitoring schemes received government funding, but this was less than one-quarter in low-income countries. Data collection was undertaken partly or wholly by volunteers in 37% of schemes, and such schemes covered significantly more sites and species than those undertaken by professionals alone. Birds were by far the most widely monitored taxonomic group, accounting for around half of all schemes, but this bias declined over time. Monitoring in most taxonomic groups remains sparse and uncoordinated, and most of the data generated are elusive and unlikely to feed into wider biodiversity conservation processes. These shortcomings could be addressed by, for example, creating an open global meta-database of biodiversity monitoring schemes and enhancing capacity for species monitoring in countries with high biodiversity. Article impact statement: Species population monitoring for conservation purposes remains strongly biased toward a few vertebrate taxa in wealthier countries. 相似文献
The emergence of the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning debate in the last decade has renewed interest in understanding why some communities are more easily invaded than others and how the impact of invasion on recipient communities and ecosystems varies. To date most of the research on invasibility has focused on taxonomic diversity, i.e., species richness. However, functional diversity of the communities should be more relevant for the resistance of the community to invasions, as the extent of functional differences among the species in an assemblage is a major determinant of ecosystem processes. Although coastal marine habitats are among the most heavily invaded ecosystems, studies on community invasibility and vulnerability in these habitats are scarce. We carried out a manipulative field experiment in tide pools of the rocky intertidal to test the hypothesis that increasing functional richness reduces the susceptibility of macroalgal communities to invasion. We selected a priori four functional groups on the basis of previous knowledge of local species characteristics: encrusting, turf, subcanopy, and canopy species. Synthetic assemblages containing one, two, three, or four different functional groups of seaweeds were created, and invasion by native species was monitored over an eight-month period. Cover and resource availability in the assemblages with only one functional group showed different patterns in the use of space and light, confirming true functional differences among our groups. Experimental results showed that the identity of functional groups was more important than functional richness in determining the ability of macroalgal communities to resist invasion and that resistance to invasion was resource-mediated. 相似文献
Generalist mammalian browsers and folivores feed on a range of chemically different plant species, which may assist them in diluting toxins and diversifying nutrient consumption. The frequency and order in which their diets are mixed are important determinants of intake. As a result, the degree of plant heterogeneity in an environment, and the spatial scale at which this occurs, should directly influence herbivore foraging decisions. We tested whether altering the Spatial scale of plants, and thus plant secondary metabolites (PSMs), affected foraging efficiency of a generalist folivore, the common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula). First, we demonstrated that possums were able to consume more from a mixed diet of two chemically different species, Eucalyptus globulus and E. tenuiramis, than when either of these species was offered alone. We then tested whether altering the spatial scale between E. globulus and E. tenuiramis, as small- or large-scale plant heterogeneity "patches," affected possum foraging behavior and, ultimately, their foraging efficiency. Possums increased their foraging efficiency when the spatial scale of plant heterogeneity was small rather than large. We argue that the ability to regularly switch diets, when plant spatial distribution is at a small scale, reduces the negative effects of PSM ingestion. We predict that the heterogeneity of plant patches, in relation to PSM distribution, and the scale at which this occurs across a landscape, are critical factors that influence foraging efficiency and, ultimately, fitness of mammalian herbivores. This research provides a fundamental link between plant chemistry, foraging, and habitat heterogeneity. 相似文献