How China’s current energy pricing mechanisms will impact its marginal carbon abatement costs?

Economic and social costs and benefits are critical factors affecting greenhouse gas abatement activities. Recognizing that energy prices are one of the most important factors influencing abatement costs, this study improved the basic China Energy and Environmental Policy Analysis (CEEPA) model by introducing a current energy pricing mechanism for China. The improved model was applied to generate marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves for China including the current energy pricing mechanism and to analyze MACs for the whole country and main abatement sectors in China under different energy pricing mechanisms. The results show that China MACs are sensitive to pricing mechanisms for electricity and refined oil. Ignoring the current regulation of these prices will lead to MAC underestimation, and price liberalization of these two energy sources could lead to a decrease in China MACs. Under a 50 % emission reduction target, if the electricity price regulation is ignored, the China MAC is underestimated by almost 16 %. Energy pricing reforms will lead to variations in sectoral abatement costs and overall abatement potential, and these impacts are projected to be large in the electricity sector. Under a 50 % reduction target, if the electricity price regulation is liberalized, MAC for the electricity sector nearly will decrease 50 %.     

Managing the nitrogen cycle to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from crop production and biofuel expansion

Public policies are promoting biofuels as an alternative to fossil fuel consumption in order to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the mitigation benefit can be at least partially compromised by emissions occurring during feedstock production. One of the key sources of GHG emissions from biofuel feedstock production, as well as conventional crops, is soil nitrous oxide (N₂O), which is largely driven by nitrogen (N) management. Our objective was to determine how much GHG emissions could be reduced by encouraging alternative N management practices through application of nitrification inhibitors and a cap on N fertilization. We used the US Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS2) as the basis for a case study to evaluate technical and economic drivers influencing the N management mitigation strategies. We estimated soil N₂O emissions using the DayCent ecosystem model and applied the US Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOMGHG) to project GHG emissions for the agricultural sector, as influenced by biofuel scenarios and N management options. Relative to the current RSF2 policy with no N management interventions, results show decreases in N₂O emissions ranging from 3 to 4 % for the agricultural sector (5.5–6.5 million metric tonnes CO₂?eq.?year^?1; 1 million metric tonnes is equivalent to a Teragram) in response to a cap that reduces N fertilizer application and even larger reductions with application of nitrification inhibitors, ranging from 9 to 10 % (15.5–16.6 million tonnes CO₂?eq.?year^?1). The results demonstrate that climate and energy policies promoting biofuel production could consider options to manage the N cycle with alternative fertilization practices for the agricultural sector and likely enhance the mitigation of GHG emissions associated with biofuels.     

Assessing agricultural systems vulnerability to climate change to inform adaptation planning: an application in Khorezm,Uzbekistan

Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change. The current vulnerability assessments through traditional fragmented sectoral methods are insufficient to capture the effects on complex agricultural systems. Therefore, the traditional methods need to be replaced by integrated approaches. The objective of this study is to propose a holistic vulnerability assessment method for agricultural systems. By aggregating both agro-ecological and socio-economic information, we develop an agricultural systems vulnerability index (ASVI) which allows for (i) a classification of geographical units according to their vulnerability level, (ii) an identification of key determinants of vulnerability for each unit and (iii) an assessment of adaptation policy scenarios considering their effects on the sustainability of the analysed systems. The proposed method is applied in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan—a representative irrigated agricultural region in the lower Amu Darya river basin. A decision support tool is used to facilitate multi-criteria decision analysis, including the computation of the index and performing sensitivity analysis of the results. The assessment for Khorezm reveals significant spatial differences of vulnerability levels due to a variation of contributing factors, e.g. natural resources, water productivity, rural-urban ratio. It reveals also that feasible land and water management policies could reduce the vulnerability in Khorezm, particularly in the districts with the poorest agro-ecological conditions. Overall, the proposed method could support national and local authorities in the identification of sustainable adaptation policies for the agriculture sector.     

Environmental Surveillance of Polioviruses in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil, in Support to the Activities of Global Polio Eradication Initiative

Wild polioviruses still remain endemic in three countries (Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Nigeria) and re-emergency of wild polio has been reported in previously polio-free countries. Environmental surveillance has been used as a supplementary tool in monitoring the circulation of wild poliovirus (PVs) and/or vaccine-derived PVs even in the absence of acute flaccid paralysis cases. This study aimed to monitor the presence of polioviruses in wastewater samples collected at one wastewater treatment plant located in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. From December 2011 to June 2012 and from September to December 2012, 31 samples were collected and processed. RD and L20B cell cultures were able to isolate PVs and non-polio enteroviruses in 27/31 samples. Polioviruses were isolated in eight samples (type 1 Sabin = 1, type 2 Sabin = 5, and type 3 Sabin = 2). Vaccine-derived polioviruses were not detected nor evidence of recombination with other PVs or non-polio enterovirus serotypes were observed among the isolates. The Sabin-related serotypes 2 and 3 presented nucleotide substitutions in positions associated with the neurovirulent phenotype at the 5′-UTR. Changes in important Amino acid residues at VP1 were also observed in the serotypes 2 and 3. Environmental surveillance has been used successfully in monitoring the circulation of PVs and non-polio enteroviruses and it is of crucial importance in the final stages of the WHO global polio eradication initiative. Our results show the continuous circulation of Sabin-like PVs and non-polio enteroviruses in the analyzed area during the study period.     

Somatic Coliphage Profiles of Produce and Environmental Samples from Farms in Northern México

Somatic coliphages were quantified in 459 produce and environmental samples from 11 farms in Northern Mexico to compare amounts of somatic coliphages among different types of fresh produce and environmental samples across the production steps on farms. Rinsates from cantaloupe melons, jalapeño peppers, tomatoes, and the hands of workers, soil, and water were collected during 2011–2012 at four successive steps on each farm, from the field before harvest through the packing facility, and assayed by FastPhage MPN Quanti-tray method. Cantaloupe farm samples contained more coliphages than jalapeño or tomato (p range <0.01–0.03). Across production steps, jalapeños had higher coliphage percentages before harvest than during packing (p = 0.03), while tomatoes had higher coliphage concentrations at packing than all preceding production steps (p range <0.01–0.02). These findings support the use of targeted produce-specific interventions at multiple points in the process of growing and packing produce to reduce the risk of enteric virus contamination and improve food safety during fruit and vegetable production.     

Vulnerability assessment and adaptation to the impacts of sea level rise on the Kingdom of Bahrain

This paper assesses quantitatively the impact of sea level rise (SLR) at the global and regional scale as a result of climate change (CC) on the coastal areas of the Kingdom of Bahrain’s islands (36 Islands). The standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines was modified as appropriate for the situation of the study area. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) coupled with Remote Sensing (RS) were used as the main techniques of collecting, analyzing, modeling simulating and disseminating information to build SLR scenarios in a geographically referenced context. Also, these tools were used to assess vulnerability and risk of the coastal area of the islands with the expectation that coastal planner and government authorities will profit from integrating these knowledge into a broad based environmental decision making. Three SLR scenarios: low, moderate and high were developed to examine the impacts from SLR on all islands. The low SLR scenario (Optimistic) assumes a 0.5-m rise above current sea level, the moderate scenario (Intermediate) assumes a one meter rise, and the high scenario (Pessimistic) assumes a 1.5 m rise in sea level. Two more SLR scenarios were assumed to perform risk analysis, a 2 and 5 meter rise above current sea level. The simulation of SLR are quite straightforward, emphasizing on the uses of both of the data that are incorporated from the satellite images and the created Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to estimate SLR scenarios that are adapted in the study. These data were used to predict consequences of the possibility of the rise in sea level at different scenarios which may alter the landuse and patterns of human communities. Results indicate that low-lying coastal areas of Bahrain islands are at risk from the effects of any SLR resulting from CC. These islands are vulnerable under different SLR Scenarios. More than 17% of the country total area may be inundated under 1.5 m SLR in 2100. The total area that might be lost under different sea level scenarios will vary from more than 77 km² if SLR reaches 0.5 m, to about 100 km² under 1.0 m SLR and may reach 124 km² under 1.5 m SLR scenario. The total inundated areas due to risk scenarios will reach 133 km², if the SLR rises to 2.0 m, and it is estimated to be more than (22%) of the main island total area. Under the second scenario, if the SLR reaches 5.0 m, the main islands will lose approximately half of its area (47%) equal to 280 km². Hawar islands group will lose about (30%) of its total area under 2.0 m SLR, which is about 15.5 km².A SLR adaptation policy framework (APF) and adaptation policy initiatives (APIs) are suggested for planners to build upon for reducing the likely effects of SLR in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The framework is composed of four steps namely, acquisition of information, planning and design, implementation and monitoring and evaluation. A general policy framework for a national response to SLR is suggested. Additionally, a range of policy adaptation options/initiatives to sustain coastal developments under the likely effects of SLR are recommended.     

Impact of bioenergy crops in a carbon dioxide constrained world: an application of the MiniCAM energy-agriculture and land use model

In the coming century, modern bioenergy crops have the potential to play a crucial role in the global energy mix, especially under policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions as proposed by many in the international community. Previous studies have not fully addressed many of the dynamic interactions and effects of a policy-induced expansion of bioenergy crop production, particularly on crop yields and human food demand. This study combines an updated agriculture and land use (AgLU) model with a well-developed energy-economic model to provide an analysis of the effects of bioenergy crops on energy, agricultural and land use systems. The results indicate that carbon dioxide mitigation policies can stimulate a large production of bioenergy crops, dependent on the level of the policy. This production of bioenergy crops can lead to several impacts on the agriculture and land use system: decreases in forestland and unmanaged land, decreases in the average yield of food crops, increases in the prices of food crops, and decreases in the level of human demand of calories.

Use of IPCC GHG key sources analysis to Mexico’s environmental policy

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 1 key sources level 1 assessment was applied to the 1994–1994 National Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emission inventory for Mexico in order to identify and analyze the key sources within it. Top key sources were from land use change and energy combustion contributing to about 60% of total national emissions. In addition, a Tier 1 trend assessment revealed some changes with respect to Tier 1 level assessment: Top key sources according to this analysis are waste disposal and delayed emissions from land clearing. Important insight for cost effective preventive mitigation actions can be extracted from this analysis. A comparison with other countries was carried out to find similarities in the GHG national emissions inventories related to common features on economic development.     

Ventral polarization vision in tabanids: horseflies and deerflies (Diptera: Tabanidae) are attracted to horizontally polarized light

Adult tabanid flies (horseflies and deerflies) are terrestrial and lay their eggs onto marsh plants near bodies of fresh water because the larvae develop in water or mud. To know how tabanids locate their host animals, terrestrial rendezvous sites and egg-laying places would be very useful for control measures against them, because the hematophagous females are primary/secondary vectors of some severe animal/human diseases/parasites. Thus, in choice experiments performed in the field we studied the behavior of tabanids governed by linearly polarized light. We present here evidence for positive polarotaxis, i.e., attraction to horizontally polarized light stimulating the ventral eye region, in both males and females of 27 tabanid species. The novelty of our findings is that positive polarotaxis has been described earlier only in connection with the water detection of some aquatic insects ovipositing directly into water. A further particularity of our discovery is that in the order Diptera and among blood-sucking insects the studied tabanids are the first known species possessing ventral polarization vision and definite polarization-sensitive behavior with known functions. The polarotaxis in tabanid flies makes it possible to develop new optically luring traps being more efficient than the existing ones based on the attraction of tabanids by the intensity and/or color of reflected light.     

Mantophasmatodea now in the Jurassic

The Mantophasmatodea is the most recently discovered insect order. The fossil records of all other ‘polyneopteran’ orders extend far in the past, but the current absence of pre-Cenozoic fossils of the Mantophasmatodea contradicts a long evolutionary history, which has to be assumed from the morphological distinctness of the group. In this paper, we report the first Mesozoic evidence of a mantophasmatodean from the Middle Jurassic of Daohugou, Inner Mongolia, China. Furthermore, the new fossil shares apomorphic characters with Cenozoic and recent Mantophasmatodea, suggesting a longer evolutionary history of this order.