A test of the mismatch hypothesis: How is timing of reproduction related to food abundance in an aerial insectivore?

In seasonal environments, vertebrates are generally thought to time their reproduction so offspring are raised during the peak of food abundance. The mismatch hypothesis predicts that reproductive success is maximized when animals synchronize their reproduction with the food supply. Understanding the mechanisms influencing the timing of reproduction has taken on new urgency as climate change is altering environmental conditions during reproduction, and there is concern that species will not be able to synchronize their reproduction with changing food supplies. Using data from five sites over 24 years (37 site-years), we tested the assumptions of the mismatch hypothesis in the Tree Swallow (Tachycineta bicolor), a widespread aerial insectivore, whose timing of egg-laying has shifted earlier by nine days since the 1950s. Contrary to the mismatch hypothesis, the start of egg-laying was strongly related to food abundance (flying insect biomass) during the laying period and not to timing of the seasonal peak in food supply. In fact, food abundance generally continued to increase throughout the breeding season, and there was no evidence of selection based on the mistiming of laying with the seasonal peak of food abundance. In contrast, there was selection for laying earlier, because birds that lay earlier generally have larger clutches and fledge more young. Overall, initial reproductive decisions in this insectivore appear to be based on the food supply during egg formation and not the nestling period. Thus, the mismatch hypothesis may not apply in environments with relatively constant or abundant food throughout the breeding season. Although climate change is often associated with earlier reproduction, our results caution that it is not necessarily driven by selection for synchronized reproduction.     

A novel statistical method for classifying habitat generalists and specialists

We develop a novel statistical approach for classifying generalists and specialists in two distinct habitats. Using a multinomial model based on estimated species relative abundance in two habitats, our method minimizes bias due to differences in sampling intensities between two habitat types as well as bias due to insufficient sampling within each habitat. The method permits a robust statistical classification of habitat specialists and generalists, without excluding rare species a priori. Based on a user-defined specialization threshold, the model classifies species into one of four groups: (1) generalist; (2) habitat A specialist; (3) habitat B specialist; and (4) too rare to classify with confidence. We illustrate our multinomial classification method using two contrasting data sets: (1) bird abundance in woodland and heath habitats in southeastern Australia and (2) tree abundance in second-growth (SG) and old-growth (OG) rain forests in the Caribbean lowlands of northeastern Costa Rica. We evaluate the multinomial model in detail for the tree data set. Our results for birds were highly concordant with a previous nonstatistical classification, but our method classified a higher fraction (57.7%) of bird species with statistical confidence. Based on a conservative specialization threshold and adjustment for multiple comparisons, 64.4% of tree species in the full sample were too rare to classify with confidence. Among the species classified, OG specialists constituted the largest class (40.6%), followed by generalist tree species (36.7%) and SG specialists (22.7%). The multinomial model was more sensitive than indicator value analysis or abundance-based phi coefficient indices in detecting habitat specialists and also detects generalists statistically. Classification of specialists and generalists based on rarefied subsamples was highly consistent with classification based on the full sample, even for sampling percentages as low as 20%. Major advantages of the new method are (1) its ability to distinguish habitat generalists (species with no significant habitat affinity) from species that are simply too rare to classify and (2) applicability to a single representative sample or a single pooled set of representative samples from each of two habitat types. The method as currently developed can be applied to no more than two habitats at a time.     

Reducing fall risk by improving balance control: development, evaluation and knowledge-translation of new approaches

Problem

Falling is a leading cause of serious injury, loss of independence, and nursing-home admission in older adults. Impaired balance control is a major contributing factor.

Methods

Results from our balance-control studies have been applied in the development of new and improved interventions and assessment tools. Initiatives to facilitate knowledge-translation of this work include setting up a new network of balance clinics, a research-user network and a research-user advisory board.

Results

Our findings support the efficacy of the developed balance-training methods, balance-enhancing footwear, neuro-prosthesis, walker design, handrail-cueing system, and handrail-design recommendations in improving specific aspects of balance control.

Impact on Knowledge Users

A new balance-assessment tool has been implemented in the first new balance clinic, a new balance-enhancing insole is available through pharmacies and other commercial outlets, and handrail design recommendations have been incorporated into 10 Canadian and American building codes. Work in progress is expected to have further impact.     

Status and future of the forest health indicators program of the USA

For two decades, the US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, has been charged with implementing a nationwide field-based forest health monitoring effort. Given its extensive nature, the monitoring program has been gradually implemented across forest health indicators and inventoried states. Currently, the Forest Service??s Forest Inventory and Analysis program has initiated forest health inventories in all states, and most forest health indicators are being documented in terms of sampling protocols, data management structures, and estimation procedures. Field data from most sample years and indicators are available on-line with numerous analytical examples published both internally and externally. This investment in national forest health monitoring has begun to yield dividends by allowing evaluation of state/regional forest health issues (e.g., pollution and invasive pests) and contributing substantially to national/international reporting efforts (e.g., National Report on Sustainability and US EPA Annual Greenhouse Gas Estimates). With the emerging threat of climate change, full national implementation and remeasurement of a forest health inventory should allow for more robust assessment of forest communities that are undergoing unprecedented changes, aiding future land management and policy decisions.     

Modelling of occupational respirable crystalline silica exposure for quantitative exposure assessment in community-based case-control studies

We describe an empirical model for exposure to respirable crystalline silica (RCS) to create a quantitative job-exposure matrix (JEM) for community-based studies. Personal measurements of exposure to RCS from Europe and Canada were obtained for exposure modelling. A mixed-effects model was elaborated, with region/country and job titles as random effect terms. The fixed effect terms included year of measurement, measurement strategy (representative or worst-case), sampling duration (minutes) and a priori exposure intensity rating for each job from an independently developed JEM (none, low, high). 23,640 personal RCS exposure measurements, covering a time period from 1976 to 2009, were available for modelling. The model indicated an overall downward time trend in RCS exposure levels of -6% per year. Exposure levels were higher in the UK and Canada, and lower in Northern Europe and Germany. Worst-case sampling was associated with higher reported exposure levels and an increase in sampling duration was associated with lower reported exposure levels. Highest predicted RCS exposure levels in the reference year (1998) were for chimney bricklayers (geometric mean 0.11 mg m(-3)), monument carvers and other stone cutters and carvers (0.10 mg m(-3)). The resulting model enables us to predict time-, job-, and region/country-specific exposure levels of RCS. These predictions will be used in the SYNERGY study, an ongoing pooled multinational community-based case-control study on lung cancer.     

How well does XAD resin extraction recover halogenated disinfection byproducts for comprehensive identification and toxicity testing?

Halogenated disinfection byproducts (DBPs) are an unintended consequence of drinking water disinfection, and can have significant toxicity. XAD resins are commonly used to extract and enrich trace levels of DBPs for comprehensive, nontarget identification of DBPs and also for in vitro toxicity studies. However, XAD resin recoveries for complete classes of halogenated DBPs have not been evaluated, particularly for low, environmentally relevant levels (ng/L to low µg/L). Thus, it is not known whether levels of DBPs or the toxicity of drinking water might be underestimated. In this study, DAX-8/XAD-2 layered resins were evaluated, considering both adsorption and elution from the resins, for extracting 66 DBPs from water. Results demonstrate that among the 7 classes of DBPs investigated, trihalomethanes (THMs), including iodo-THMs, were the most efficiently adsorbed, with recovery of most THMs ranging from 50%-96%, followed by halonitromethanes (40%-90%). The adsorption ability of XAD resins for haloacetonitriles, haloacetamides, and haloacetaldehydes was highly dependent on the individual species. The adsorption capacity of XAD resins for haloacetic acids was lower (5%-48%), even after adjusting to pH 1 before extraction. Recovery efficiency for most DBPs was comparable with their adsorption, as most were eluted effectively from XAD resins by ethyl acetate. DBP polarity and molecular weight were the two most important factors that determine their recovery. Recovery of trichloromethane, iodoacetic acid, chloro- and iodo-acetonitrile, and chloroacetamide were among the lowest, which could lead to underestimation of toxicity, particularly for iodoacetic acid and iodo-acetonitrile, which are highly toxic.     

Self-Reported Seat Belt Use in Four Countries: A Telephone Survey

A telephone survey was conducted in four countries in November 1998 to compare drivers in the United States with those in Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom regarding their attitudes toward seat belts and belt use laws. More than 90 percent of the 2251 respondents said they thought seat belts are effective, but self-reported belt use was significantly lower in the United States than in the other countries. Respondents in Australia and the United Kingdom had similar views about what they thought were important reasons for using seat belts and had the highest self-reported use. Reasons given for using belts by Canadian and US respondents were quite similar to one another, yet US respondents had significantly lower self-reported use rates, a difference thought to be due to vigorous enforcement of the law in Canada. US drivers were less likely than Australian and UK drivers to say they used belts out of habit, to avoid a ticket, or because it is required by law and more likely to say they used belts for situational reasons. US drivers were least likely to be in favor of belt use laws. Canadian drivers reported the most experience being checked by police for belt use and were most likely to think that nonusers would be caught. US drivers in primary enforcement jurisdictions were more likely than those in secondary jurisdictions to think that drivers not using belts would be caught and more likely to say they always used belts. Results of this survey indicate that seat belt use in the United States could be increased by adoption of primary enforcement laws and highly visible enforcement programs of the type used in Canada, and that seat belt use could be increased in all countries by increasing the penalties for nonuse.     

Physical basis of coastal adaptation on tropical small islands

Small tropical islands are widely recognized as having high exposure and vulnerability to climate change and other natural hazards. Ocean warming and acidification, changing storm patterns and intensity, and accelerated sea-level rise pose challenges that compound the intrinsic vulnerability of small, remote, island communities. Sustainable development requires robust guidance on the risks associated with natural hazards and climate change, including the potential for island coasts and reefs to keep pace with rising sea levels. Here we review these issues with special attention to their implications for climate-change vulnerability, adaptation, and disaster risk reduction in various island settings. We present new projections for 2010–2100 local sea-level rise (SLR) at 18 island sites, incorporating crustal motion and gravitational fingerprinting, for a range of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change global projections and a semi-empirical model. Projected 90-year SLR for the upper limit A1FI scenario with enhanced glacier drawdown ranges from 0.56 to 1.01 m for islands with a measured range of vertical motion from ?0.29 to +0.10 m. We classify tropical small islands into four broad groups comprising continental fragments, volcanic islands, near-atolls and atolls, and high carbonate islands including raised atolls. Because exposure to coastal forcing and hazards varies with island form, this provides a framework for consideration of vulnerability and adaptation strategies. Nevertheless, appropriate measures to adjust for climate change and to mitigate disaster risk depend on a place-based understanding of island landscapes and of processes operating in the coastal biophysical system of individual islands.     

In vitro conservation and sustained production of breadfruit (Artocarpus altilis, Moraceae): modern technologies for a traditional tropical crop

Breadfruit (Artocarpus altilis, Moraceae) is a traditionally cultivated, high-energy, high-yield crop, but widespread use of the plant for food is limited by poor quality and poor storage properties of the fruit. A unique field genebank of breadfruit species and cultivars exists at the National Tropical Botanical Garden in the Hawaiian Islands and is an important global resource for conservation and sustainable use of breadfruit. However, this plant collection could be damaged by a random natural disaster such as a hurricane. We have developed a highly efficient in vitro plant propagation system to maintain, conserve, mass propagate, and distribute elite varieties of this important tree species. Mature axillary shoot buds were collected from three different cultivars of breadfruit and proliferated using a cytokinin-supplemented medium. The multiple shoots were maintained as stock cultures and repeatedly used to develop whole plants after root differentiation on a basal or an auxin-containing medium. The plantlets were successfully grown under greenhouse conditions and were reused to initiate additional shoot cultures for sustained production of plants. Flow cytometry was used to determine the nuclear deoxyribonucleic acid content and the ploidy status of the in vitro grown population. The efficacy of the micropropagation protocols developed in this study represents a significant advancement in the conservation and sustained mass propagation of breadfruit germplasm in a controlled environment free from contamination.     

Lessons from an Evaluation of a Boater Outreach Program for Manatee Protection

Watercraft collisions account for 25–30% of manatee deaths annually in Florida. Education and outreach interventions for boaters are strategies for reducing manatee mortality. We evaluated the effectiveness of the Manatee Watch program by surveying primary boat users whose boats were approached by Manatee Watch. We compared the attitudes, knowledge, and behavioral intentions of boaters who received Manatee Watch materials with a control group of boaters observed by the Florida Marine Research Institute in Tampa Bay during 1999–2001. Results of the 51-item telephone survey with 499 boaters indicated that the Manatee Watch intervention had little effect on boater’s attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors regarding manatees. However, individual attitude scores were positively correlated with safe boating behaviors in shallow waters including maintaining a slower speed and watching out for manatees. Overall knowledge about manatees was correlated with one manatee-safe boating behavior. To improve efficacy, educators should (a) incorporate evaluation into the planning stages of program development; (b) target messages to influence boaters’ attitudes toward manatees and ecosystem health, and their feelings of ownership and empowerment; (c) facilitate active participation of the boaters; and (d) increase the duration and variety of intervention.