Future-year ozone prediction for the United States using updated models and inputs

The relationship between emission reductions and changes in ozone can be studied using photochemical grid models. These models are updated with new information as it becomes available. The primary objective of this study was to update the previous Collet et al. studies by using the most up-to-date (at the time the study was done) modeling emission tools, inventories, and meteorology available to conduct ozone source attribution and sensitivity studies. Results show future-year, 2030, design values for 8-hr ozone concentrations were lower than base-year values, 2011. The ozone source attribution results for selected cities showed that boundary conditions were the dominant contributors to ozone concentrations at the western U.S. locations, and were important for many of the eastern U.S. locations. Point sources were generally more important in the eastern United States than in the western United States. The contributions of on-road mobile emissions were less than 5 ppb at a majority of the cities selected for analysis. The higher-order decoupled direct method (HDDM) results showed that in most of the locations selected for analysis, NOx emission reductions were more effective than VOC emission reductions in reducing ozone levels. The source attribution results from this study provide useful information on the important source categories and provide some initial guidance on future emission reduction strategies.

Implications: The relationship between emission reductions and changes in ozone can be studied using photochemical grid models, which are updated with new available information. This study was to update the previous Collet et al. studies by using the most current, at the time the study was done, models and inventory to conduct ozone source attribution and sensitivity studies. The source attribution results from this study provide useful information on the important source categories and provide some initial guidance on future emission reduction strategies.     

Early wheezing phenotypes and severity of respiratory illness in very early childhood: Study on intrauterine exposure to fine particle matter

The main goal of the paper was to assess the pattern of risk factors having an impact on the onset of early wheezing phenotypes in the birth cohort of 468 two-year olds and to investigate the severity of respiratory illness in the two-year olds in relation to both wheezing phenotypes, environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) and personal PM_2.5 exposure over pregnancy period (fine particulate matter). The secondary goal of the paper was to assess possible association of early persistent wheezing with the length of the baby at birth. Pregnant women were recruited from ambulatory prenatal clinics in the first and second trimester of pregnancy. Only women 18–35 years of age, who claimed to be non-smokers, with singleton pregnancies, without illicit drug use and HIV infection, free from chronic diseases were eligible for the study. In the statistical analysis of respiratory health of children multinomial logistic regression and zero-inflated Poisson regression models were used. Approximately one third of the children in the study sample experienced wheezing in the first 2 years of life and in about two third of cases (67%) the symptom developed already in the first year of life. The early wheezing was easily reversible and in about 70% of infants with wheezing the symptom receded in the second year of life. The adjusted relative risk ratio (RRR) of persistent wheezing increased with maternal atopy (RRR = 3.05; 95%CI: 1.30–7.15), older siblings (RRR = 3.05; 95%CI: 1.67–5.58) and prenatal ETS exposure (RRR = 1.13; 95%CI: 1.04–1.23), but was inversely associated with the length of baby at birth (RRR = 0.88; 95%CI: 0.76–1.01). The adjusted incidence risk ratios (IRR) of coughing, difficult breathing, runny/stuffy nose and pharyngitis/tonsillitis in wheezers were much higher than that observed among non-wheezers and significantly depended on prenatal PM_2.5 exposure, older siblings and maternal atopy. The study shows a clear inverse association between maternal age or maternal education and respiratory illnesses and calls for more research efforts aiming at the explanation of factors hidden behind proxy measures of quality of maternal care of babies. The data support the hypothesis that burden of respiratory symptoms in early childhood and possibly in later life may be programmed already in prenatal period when the respiratory system is completing its growth and maturation.     

Determination of relative assay response factors for toxic chlorinated and brominated dioxins/furans using an enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and a chemically-activated luciferase gene expression cell bioassay (CALUX)

Determination of toxic activity requires knowledge of both the concentration and toxicity to evaluate the risk for adverse human health and environmental effects. A chemically-activated luciferase gene expression cell bioassay system (CALUX) and an antibody-based method enzyme immunoassay (EIA) were used to detect the dioxin-like response of several polybrominated, polychlorinated, and polybrominated/chlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/furans (PBDDs/Fs, PCDDs/Fs, and PBCDDs/Fs, respectively). It has been suggested that the biological activity of the brominated and mixed bromo/chloro compounds is similar to their chlorinated analogues (measured by binding to the Ah receptor). PBDD/F, PCDD/F, and PBCDD/F laboratory standards exhibited biological activity ranging over three orders of magnitude. The highest relative potency (REP) values from CALUX analysis, when compared to 2,3,7,8-TCDD, were 2,3,7,8-TBDD at 0.99 (± 0.07), 1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD at 0.69, and 2-Br-3,7,8-TriCDD at 0.72 (± 0.02). Cross-reactivities were calculated using EIA for several PBDDs/Fs and PBCDDs. The highest percent cross-reactivity was found for 2,3,7,8-TBDD at 138 (± 34%), and 2,3,7-TriBDD at 84 (± 36%).     

Satellite observations of Mexico City pollution outflow from the Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES)

Concurrent tropospheric O₃ and CO vertical profiles from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) during the MILAGRO/INTEX-B aircraft campaigns over the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) and its surrounding regions were used to examine Mexico City pollution outflow on a regional scale. The pollution outflow from the MCMA occurred predominantly at 600–800 hPa as evident in O₃, CO, and NO_x enhancements in the in situ aircraft observations. TES O₃ and CO are sensitive to the MCMA pollution outflow due to their relatively high sensitivities at 600–800 hPa. We examined O₃, CO, and their correlation at 600–800 hPa from TES retrievals, aircraft measurements, and GEOS-Chem model results. TES captures much of the spatial and day-to-day variability of O₃ seen in the in situ data. TES CO, however, shows much less spatial and day-to-day variability compared with the in situ observations. The ΔO₃/ΔCO slope is significantly higher in the TES data (0.43) than the in situ data (0.28) due partly to the lack of variability in TES CO. Extraordinarily high ΔO₃/ΔCO slope (0.81) from TES observations at 618 hPa over the Eastern U.S. was previously reported by Zhang et al. [Zhang, L., Jacob, D.J., Bowman, K.W., et al., 2006. Ozone–CO correlations determined by the TES satellite instrument in continental outflow regions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L18804. 10.1029/2006GL026399.]. Thus the application of TES CO–O₃ correlation to map continental pollution outflow needs further examination.     

Housing growth,forests, and public lands in Northern Wisconsin from 1940 to 2000

Rural, forested areas throughout the United States are experiencing strong housing growth with potentially detrimental impacts on the environment. In this paper, we quantify housing growth in Northern Wisconsin over the last sixty years to determine if growth rates were higher near public lands, which may represent an important recreational amenity. We used data from the U.S. Census to produce decadal housing density estimates, “backcasts,” from 1940 to 2000 for northern Wisconsin to examine “rural sprawl” in northern Wisconsin and its relationship to forested areas and public lands. We integrated housing density estimates with the 1992/1993 National Land Cover Dataset to examine the relationship between rural sprawl and land cover, especially forests. Between 1940 and 2000, private land with <2 housing units/km² decreased from 47% to 21% of the total landscape. Most importantly, housing growth was concentrated along the boundaries of public lands. In 14 of the 19 counties that we studied, housing growth rates within 1 km of a public land boundary exceeded growth rates in the remainder of the county, and three of the five counties that did not exhibit this pattern, were the ones with the least amount of public land. Future growth can be expected in areas with abundant natural amenities, highlighting the critical need for additional research and effective natural resource management and regional planning to address these challenges.     

Influence of Habitat Patchiness on Genetic Diversity and Spatial Structure of a Serpentine Endemic Plant

Abstract: Conservation of rare plant species often involves small, local populations dispersed within apparently suitable habitat. We used enzyme electrophoresis to study genotypic diversity in 32 populations of Calystegia collina , a self-incompatible clonal plant endemic to serpentine substrate in northern California's Coast Range. Genotypic diversity within a population was a good predictor of seed set by randomly marked flowers. Ramets from the most abundant genotypes in a population were most likely to produce flowers, but flowers from abundant genotypes were less likely to produce seed capsules than were flowers from rarer genotypes. These results are consistent with previous findings that reproductive success in C. collina is limited by the availability of compatible pollen. On small serpentine outcrops supporting only one or two populations, C. collina did not show reduced genotypic diversity or heterozygosity compared with populations on large outcrops supporting many populations. Instead, genotypic diversity and outcrop size had strong but independent influences on reproductive success. Although large serpentine outcrops contain more populations and provide better conditions for flower and seed production, significant diversity of unique genotypes clearly exists in isolated serpentine outcrops. Our findings suggest that plant conservation strategies must take into account the natural distribution of populations. The effects of habitat fragmentation on C. collina and other plant species that occur naturally in small, discrete patches may be unlike those that have been documented in more recently fragmented species.     

Song-type sharing in song sparrows: implications for repertoire function and song learning

One hypothesis for the function of song repertoires is that males learn multiple song types so that they may share songs with neighbors, allowing them to match during territorial interactions. In at least one song sparrow population, in Washington, territorial males share a high proportion of song types with their neighbors and use these shared songs in matching. We recorded song sparrows in Pennsylvania and quantified sharing of whole songs and song segments. We found that song sharing is an order of magnitude less common in the Pennsylvania population. We found sharing of song segments to be significantly more common than the sharing of whole songs in three of the five fields we examined, while we found no significant differences between whole and partial song sharing in the remaining two fields. Finally, we found no evidence that sharing is greater between birds in the same field compared to birds in different fields. Taken with the data from Washington song sparrows, these results provide evidence for intraspecific geographic variation in the organization of song repertoires, and suggest that song sharing has not been a strong selective force in the evolution of song repertoires in song sparrows as a species. Furthermore, Washington and Pennsylvania song sparrows differ in how they learn song, in that Washington birds copy whole songs, while Pennsylvania birds appear to copy and recombine song segments, as has been found in laboratory studies of song learning. Thus both song learning and the function of song repertoires differ between populations of song sparrows. Such intraspecific geographic variation offers a unique opportunity to explore the ecological and historical factors which have influenced the evolution of song. Received: 30 June 1997 / Accepted after revision: 8 March 1998     

Behavioral and demographic changes following the loss of the breeding female in cooperatively breeding marmosets

Recent models of the evolution and dynamics of family structure in cooperatively breeding vertebrates predict that the opening of breeding vacancies in cooperatively breeding groups will result in (1) dispersal movements to fill the reproductive position, and (2) within-group conflict over access to reproduction. We describe the behavioral and demographic changes that followed the creation of breeding vacancies in three wild groups of cooperatively breeding common marmosets (Callithrix jacchus). Replacement of the breeding female was rapid when no adult females remained in the group, but did not occur for several months when other adult females were present. Aggression of adult animals towards same-sex potential immigrants was associated with a period of reduced affiliation, increased intragroup agonism, no intragroup sexual behavior, and frequent extragroup copulations. This ended with the fissioning of groups along sexual lines. After replacement, multiple males copulated with multiple females and vice versa, with no increases in sexually related aggression. Female-female conflict was resolved through infanticide. The lack of direct conflict between males is consistent with cooperative polyandry. After a breeding vacancy appeared, marmoset groups showed conflict of interests among group members similar to those shown by cooperatively breeding birds, but they used different behavioral mechanisms to resolve those conflicts. Our data provide important evidence from a cooperatively breeding mammal to support Emlen’s model for the evolution of vertebrate families, but they suggest that species-specific inter- and intrasexual competitive strategies should be considered before the model can be applied to other cooperatively breeding vertebrates. Received: 23 November 1999 / Received in revised form: 28 March 2000 / Accepted: 1 April 2000