Dividing and Uniting Through Naming: The Case of North Carolina's Sea-Level-Rise Policy

Opponents of a proposed sea-level-rise policy in North Carolina, USA, reasoned rhetorically to promote a narrative claiming that the policy supporters’ efforts had failed to meet the criteria of “good” science and the American dream expectancy of “progress.” The critics worked to hinder policy adoption by naming as “villains” scientists who provided research to support the proposed policy. In addition, the opponents named their own efforts to prevent policy based on “bad” science that would “destroy” the American dream as “heroic.” To more effectively respond to such narratives, scientists and policy proponents need to shift away from reporting just climate change “facts” in the attempt to gain stakeholder support for mitigation and adaptation initiatives. They need to move toward reasoning rhetorically to construct narratives that encourage the public to name them as the “heroes” who will achieve the American dream by their actions to mitigate climate-change outcomes.     

Analysis of short-term ozone and PM2.5 measurements: Characteristics and relationships for air sensor messaging

Air quality sensors are becoming increasingly available to the general public, providing individuals and communities with information on fine-scale, local air quality in increments as short as 1 min. Current health studies do not support linking 1-min exposures to adverse health effects; therefore, the potential health implications of such ambient exposures are unclear. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) establishes the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Air Quality Index (AQI) on the best science available, which typically uses longer averaging periods (e.g., 8 hr; 24 hr). Another consideration for interpreting sensor data is the variable relationship between pollutant concentrations measured by sensors, which are short-term (1 min to 1 hr), and the longer term averages used in the NAAQS and AQI. In addition, sensors often do not meet federal performance or quality assurance requirements, which introduces uncertainty in the accuracy and interpretation of these readings. This article describes a statistical analysis of data from regulatory monitors and new real-time technology from Village Green benches to inform the interpretation and communication of short-term air sensor data. We investigate the characteristics of this novel data set and the temporal relationships of short-term concentrations to 8-hr average (ozone) and 24-hr average (PM_2.5) concentrations to examine how sensor readings may relate to the NAAQS and AQI categories, and ultimately to inform breakpoints for sensor messages. We consider the empirical distributions of the maximum 8-hr averages (ozone) and 24-hr averages (PM_2.5) given the corresponding short-term concentrations, and provide a probabilistic assessment. The result is a robust, empirical comparison that includes events of interest for air quality exceedances and public health communication. Concentration breakpoints are developed for short-term sensor readings such that, to the extent possible, the related air quality messages that are conveyed to the public are consistent with messages related to the NAAQS and AQI.

Implications: Real-time sensors have the potential to provide important information about fine-scale current air quality and local air quality events. The statistical analysis of short-term regulatory and sensor data, coupled with policy considerations and known health effects experienced over longer averaging times, supports interpretation of such short-term data and efforts to communicate local air quality.     

Future year ozone source attribution modeling study using CMAQ-ISAM

ABSTRACT

To achieve the current United States National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) attainment level for ozone or particulate matter, current photochemical air quality models include tools to determine source apportionment and/or source sensitivity. Previous studies by the authors have used the Ozone and Particulate Matter Source Apportionment Technology and Higher-order Decoupled Direct Method probing tools in CAMx to investigate these source-receptor relationships for ozone. The recently available source apportionment for CMAQ, referred to as the Integrated Source Apportionment Method (ISAM), was used in this study to conduct future year (2030) source attribution modeling. The CMAQ-ISAM ozone source attribution results for selected cities across the U.S. showed boundary conditions were the dominant contributor to the future year highest July maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) ozone concentrations. Point sources were generally larger contributors in the eastern U.S. than in the western U.S. The contributions of on-road mobile emissions were around 5 ppb at most of the cities selected for analysis. Off-road mobile source contributions were around 20 ppb or nearly 30%. Since boundary conditions play an important role in future year ozone levels, it is important to characterize future year boundary conditions accurately. The current implementation of ISAM in CMAQ 5.0.2 requires significant computing resources for ozone source attribution, making it difficult to conduct long-term simulations for large domains. The computing requirements for PM source attribution are even more onerous. CMAQ 5.2 was released after this study was completed, and does not include ISAM. If an efficient version of ISAM becomes available, it could be used in long-term ozone and PM2.5 studies. Implications: Ozone source attribution results provide useful information on important emission source contribution categories and provide some initial guidance on future emission reduction strategies. This study explains a new source apportionment technique, CMAQ-ISAM, and compares it to CAMx OSAT. The techniques have similar results: ozone’s highest source contributor is boundary conditions, followed by point sources, then off-road mobile sources. The current version of ISAM in CMAQ 5.0.2 requires significant computing resources for ozone source attribution, while the computing requirements for PM source attribution are even more onerous. CMAQ 5.2 was released after this study was completed, and does not include ISAM.     

Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics1

Waite, Ian R., Jonathan G. Kennen, Jason T. May, Larry R. Brown, Thomas F. Cuffney, Kimberly A. Jones, and James L. Orlando, 2012. Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 570-583. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00632.x Abstract: We aggregated invertebrate data from various sources to assemble data for modeling in two ecoregions in Oregon and one in California. Our goal was to compare the performance of models developed using multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques with models developed using three relatively new techniques: classification and regression trees (CART), random forest (RF), and boosted regression trees (BRT). We used tolerance of taxa based on richness (RICHTOL) and ratio of observed to expected taxa (O/E) as response variables and land use/land cover as explanatory variables. Responses were generally linear; therefore, there was little improvement to the MLR models when compared to models using CART and RF. In general, the four modeling techniques (MLR, CART, RF, and BRT) consistently selected the same primary explanatory variables for each region. However, results from the BRT models showed significant improvement over the MLR models for each region; increases in R² from 0.09 to 0.20. The O/E metric that was derived from models specifically calibrated for Oregon consistently had lower R² values than RICHTOL for the two regions tested. Modeled O/E R² values were between 0.06 and 0.10 lower for each of the four modeling methods applied in the Willamette Valley and were between 0.19 and 0.36 points lower for the Blue Mountains. As a result, BRT models may indeed represent a good alternative to MLR for modeling species distribution relative to environmental variables.     

Modeling urban films using a dynamic multimedia fugacity model

A thin film coats impervious urban surfaces that can act as a source or sink of organic pollutants to the greater environment. We review recent developments in the understanding of film and film-associated pollutant behavior and incorporate them into an unsteady-state version of the fugacity based Multimedia Urban Model (MUM), focusing on detailed considerations of surface film dynamics. The model is used to explore the conditions under which these atmospherically-derived films act as a temporary source of chemicals to the air and/or storm water. Assuming film growth of 2.1 nm d⁻¹ (Wu et al., 2008a), PCB congeners 28 and 180 reach air-film equilibrium within hours and days, respectively. The model results suggest that the film acts as a temporary sink of chemicals from air during dry and cool weather, as a source to air in warmer weather, and as a source to storm water and soil during rain events. Using the downtown area of the City of Toronto Canada, as a case study, the model estimates that nearly 1 g d⁻¹ of ∑₅PCBs are transferred from air to film to storm water.     

Factors diminishing the effectiveness of phosphorus loading from municipal effluent: critical information for TMDL analyses

Factors that diminish the effectiveness of phosphorus inputs from a municipal wastewater treatment facility (Metro) in contributing to phosphorus levels and its availability to support algae growth in a culturally eutrophic urban lake (Onondaga Lake, NY) were characterized and quantified. These factors included the bioavailability and settling characteristics of particulate phosphorus from this effluent, the dominant form (70%) of phosphorus in this input, and the plunging of the discharge to stratified layers in the lake. Supporting studies included: (1) chemical and morphometric characterization of the phosphorus-enriched particles of this effluent, compared to particle populations of the tributaries and lake, with an individual particle analysis technique; (2) conduct of algal bioavailability assays of the particulate phosphorus of the effluent; (3) conduct of multiple size class settling velocity measurements on effluent particles; and (4) determinations of the propensity of the discharge to plunge, and documentation of plunging through three-dimensional monitoring of a tracer adjoining the outfall. All of these diminishing effects were found to be operative for the Metro effluent in Onondaga Lake and will be integrated into a forthcoming phosphorus "total maximum daily load" analysis for the lake, through appropriate representation in a supporting mechanistic water quality model. The particulate phosphorus in the effluent was associated entirely with Fe-rich particles formed in the phosphorus treatment process. These particles did not contribute to concentrations in pelagic portions of the lake, due to local deposition associated with their large size. Moreover, this particulate phosphorus was found to be nearly entirely unavailable to support algae growth. While substantial differences are to be expected for various inputs, the effective loading concept and the approaches adopted here to assess the diminishing factors are broadly applicable.     

Nutrient leaching in a Colombian savanna Oxisol amended with biochar

Nutrient leaching in highly weathered tropical soils often poses a challenge for crop production. We investigated the effects of applying 20 t ha biochar (BC) to a Colombian savanna Oxisol on soil hydrology and nutrient leaching in field experiments. Measurements were made over the third and fourth years after a single BC application. Nutrient contents in the soil solution were measured under one maize and one soybean crop each year that were routinely fertilized with mineral fertilizers. Leaching by unsaturated water flux was calculated using soil solution sampled with suction cup lysimeters and water flux estimates generated by the model HYDRUS 1-D. No significant difference ( > 0.05) was observed in surface-saturated hydraulic conductivity or soil water retention curves, resulting in no relevant changes in water percolation after BC additions in the studied soils. However, due to differences in soil solution concentrations, leaching of inorganic N, Ca, Mg, and K measured up to a depth of 0.6 m increased ( < 0.05), whereas P leaching decreased, and leaching of all nutrients (except P) at a depth of 1.2 m was significantly reduced with BC application. Changes in leaching at 2.0 m depth with BC additions were about one order of magnitude lower than at other depths, except for P. Biochar applications increased soil solution concentrations and downward movement of nutrients in the root zone and decreased leaching of Ca, Mg, and Sr at 1.2 m, possibly by a combination of retention and crop nutrient uptake.     

Risk and cooperation: managing hazardous fuel in mixed ownership landscapes

Managing natural processes at the landscape scale to promote forest health is important, especially in the case of wildfire, where the ability of a landowner to protect his or her individual parcel is constrained by conditions on neighboring ownerships. However, management at a landscape scale is also challenging because it requires cooperation on plans and actions that cross ownership boundaries. Cooperation depends on people's beliefs and norms about reciprocity and perceptions of the risks and benefits of interacting with others. Using logistic regression tests on mail survey data and qualitative analysis of interviews with landowners, we examined the relationship between perceived wildfire risk and cooperation in the management of hazardous fuel by nonindustrial private forest (NIPF) owners in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Oregon. We found that NIPF owners who perceived a risk of wildfire to their properties, and perceived that conditions on nearby public forestlands contributed to this risk, were more likely to have cooperated with public agencies in the past to reduce fire risk than owners who did not perceive a risk of wildfire to their properties. Wildfire risk perception was not associated with past cooperation among NIPF owners. The greater social barriers to private-private cooperation than to private-public cooperation, and perceptions of more hazardous conditions on public compared with private forestlands may explain this difference. Owners expressed a strong willingness to cooperate with others in future cross-boundary efforts to reduce fire risk, however. We explore barriers to cooperative forest management across ownerships, and identify models of cooperation that hold potential for future collective action to reduce wildfire risk.     

Insights into the dissolution and the three-dimensional structure of insensitive munitions formulations

Two compounds, 2,4-dinitroanisole (DNAN) and 3-nitro-1,2,4-triazol-5-one (NTO) are the main ingredients in a suite of explosive formulations that are being, or soon will be, fielded at military training ranges. We aim to understand the dissolution characteristics of DNAN and NTO and three insensitive muntions (IM) formulations that contain them. This information is needed to accurately predict the environmental fate of IM constituents, some of which may be toxic to people and the environment. We used Raman spectroscopy to identify the different constituents in the IM formulations and micro computed tomography to image their three-dimensional structure. These are the first three-dimensional images of detonated explosive particles.     

Enzyme-based resource allocated decomposition and landscape heterogeneity in the Florida Everglades

Enzyme catalyzed reactions are generally considered the rate-limiting step in organic matter degradation and may be significantly influenced by the structure and composition of plant communities. Changes in these rates have the potential to effect long-term peat accumulation and influence the topography of a wetland ecosystem. To determine habitat influences on enzyme activities, we examined slough and sawgrass plots within enriched and reference phosphorus (P) sites in the Everglades. Assays were performed for the enzymes involved in carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and P cycling and lignin depolymerization. Enzyme activities were normalized and analyzed in terms of a resource allocation strategy. Plant composition was found to significantly alter the allocation of enzymatic resources due to varying substrate complexities. Potential decomposition in the slough was less influenced by lignin than in the sawgrass habitats. Additionally, an index relating hydrolytic and oxidative enzymes was significantly greater in the slough habitats, whereas C/N ratios were significantly lower. These indices suggest more favorable decomposition conditions and thus slower peat accretion within the slough communities, which may contribute to the development of elevation differences within the sawgrass ridge and slough topography of the Everglades.