Improving inverse model fitting in trees—Anisotropy,multiplicative effects,and Bayes estimation

Model fitting for individual-based effects in forests has some problems. Because samples measuring the separate influence of each individual are rarely available, the measured value in the sample represents the influence of all surrounding individual trees. Therefore, it is helpful to build inverse models that use the spatial pattern of the variable as well as that of the source trees. For example, since seed dispersal is influenced by wind effects, a model is discussed describing anisotropic effects to ensure an unbiased estimate of the total fruit number. Further, we present a model describing the absorption of radiation by trees. In this case a multiplicative combination of individual effects yields the total effect. Our approach uses logarithmic transformations of the original data to model multiplicative combinations as sum of transformed single effects. For fitting model parameters we propose an approach based on Bayesian statistics, to ensure ecologically interpretable parameters.     

Ecosystems emerging. 5: Constraints

Ecosystem constraints are both ontic and epistemic. They limit activity, and as problems to be solved they drive organization, which is our hypothesis:

The driver of organization is constraint.

Solutions proliferate further constraints in an unending spiral of problem (constraint) generation and solution. As constraints proliferate, behavior narrows, and species diversify to compensate (paradox of constraint). Resource enrichment reduces constraints, releases behavior, and reduction of challenges decreases diversity (paradox of enrichment)—high diversity is expressed in low-resource environments and low diversity in high-resource environments. A three-part model of constraints is formulated for non-living systems, and also for goal-directed, problem-solving biota. Mode 1: dynamical means behavior is co-determined by internal states and external inputs. Mode 2: cybernetic employs negative feedback to keep dynamics within goal-oriented operating limits. Mode 3: model-making entails ability to represent (model) physical reality and respond to both phenomenal (modeled) and physical inputs; this property distinguishes living from nonliving systems. Principal sections of the paper elaborate dynamical constraints (three classes), boundary constraints (expressed in edge effects and trophic dynamics), physical constraints (space, time, temperature), chemical constraints (environment fitness, ecological stoichiometry, chemical evolution, limiting factors), coding constraints (environmental vs. genetic coding), network and pathway constraints (connectivity), and natural selection constraints (fitting to the biosphere). Consideration of how the world would look without constraints suggests how fundamental these are in ecosystem emergence, and how the next property in this series, differentiation, would be unmotivated without them. We conclude that constraints as a category are under-studied in ecology, poorly understood in ecological phenomenology, and (our hypothesis) comprise a ubiquitous organizing force in nature.     

近期和长远时段内北极生态系统结构受到的影响

生物在物种水平上对全球气候变暖和紫外线B(UV-B)辐射增强的反应受到其群落内其他物种以及生态系统内养分循环的调节,所有的这些反应将会导致生态系统结构的变化.根据高纬度地区坏境因子的可能变化而做的控制试验表明,由夏季变暖而引起苔原植被的变化要小于增加施肥而引起的变化,试验涉及的某些环境因子对北极生态系统的结构有非常强烈地影响,但是这些影响因地区而异,观测结果表明,处于最寒冷地区的植物群落和无脊椎动物群落对全球气候变暖和紫外线B辐射的增强反应最为强烈.尽管微生物量和养分储存量相对稳定,北极无脊椎动物群落还是很可能会对全球变暖产生迅速的反应.试验结果显示,加强紫外线B辐射会改变革兰氏阴性细菌和真菌的群落组成结构,但不会对植物群落的组成产生影响.由夏季气温升高而提高的植物生产力将会控制食物网的动态变化,以苔原植被和亚极地森林植物为基础的食物网中的营养流动会明显地影响到几种优势动物种群数量的周期性波动,在某些年分这些动物的种群数量会达到峰值.小型啮齿动物和食叶昆虫如秋毛虫种群数量的周期性变化则会影响苔原和森林苔原植物的组成结构和多样性,同时也会影响到一些专性捕食者和寄生虫的变化.在暖冬,雪表形成冰壳可能会减少旅鼠的植物食物来源,然而较深的雪也可以使它们免受雪地表面上捕食者对它们的捕食.在芬诺斯堪的亚地区,已有证据表明小型啮齿类动物群落结构和种群动态的显著变化会导致专门以小型啮齿类动物为食物的捕食者的数量减少.气候还可能改变昆虫在白桦森林生态系统中的作用,因为暖冬可以增加这些昆虫卵的成活率,并且扩大其分布范围.此外,在夏季困扰驯鹿的昆虫会由于夏季气候的变暖而扩大其分布范围、增加种群数量并且种群更为活跃;同时在另一方面也会对驯鹿不利,即那些昔日驯鹿/北美驯鹿的避难场所--冰川和未融的成片的雪--在这样温暖的夏季则可能会消失.     

Learning from accidents – What more do we need to know?

A model of experience feedback (the CHAIN model) that emphasizes the whole chain from initial reporting to preventive measures is used to identify important research needs in the field of learning from accidents. Based on the model, six quality criteria for experience feedback after an accident or incident are presented. Research on experience feedback from accidents is reviewed. The overall conclusion is that the discipline of experience feedback has not been sufficiently self-reflective. The process of experience feedback can and should be applied to experience feedback itself, but that is rarely done. Evaluation studies are needed that provide hard (evidence-based) information about the effects of various methodologies and organizational structures. Four types of studies are particularly important for the development of evidence-based accident investigation practices: (1) studies of the effects and the efficiency of different accident investigation methods, (2) studies of the dissemination of conclusions from accident investigation, (3) follow-up studies of the extent to which accident investigation reports give rise to actual preventive measures, and (4) studies of the integration of experience feedback systems into overall systems of risk management.     

Agonistic onset during development differentiates wild house mouse males (Mus domesticus)

Wild house mouse populations have been suggested to locally adapt to varying dispersal regimes by expressing divergent aggressivity phenotypes. This conjecture implies, first, genetic polymorphism for dispersive strategies which is supported by the finding of heritable variation for male dispersal tendency in feral house mice. Secondly, aggressivity is assumed to translate into dispersal rates. This speculation is reinforced by experimental evidence showing that non-agonistic males display lower dispersal propensity than same-aged males that have established agonistic dominance. However, the actual ontogenetic behavioural pattern and its variability among populations remain unknown. Hence, in this study the timing of agonistic onset is quantified within laboratory-reared fraternal pairs, and compared between descendants from two different feral populations. Males from the two populations (G and Z) differed strongly in agonistic development, as Z fraternal pairs had a 50% risk of agonistic onset before 23.5±2.7 days of age, while this took 57.3±5.4 days in males from population G. This difference coincided with significant genetic differentiation between the males of the two populations as determined by 11 polymorphic microsatellite markers. Furthermore, in population G, males from agonistic and amicable fraternal pairs exhibited significant genetic differentiation. These results corroborate the supposition of genetic variability for dispersive strategies in house mice, and identify the ontogenetic timing of agonistic phenotype development as the potential basis for genetic differentiation. This opens a unique opportunity to study the genetic determination of a complex mammalian behavioural syndrome in a life history context, using a simple laboratory paradigm.     

Effects of pH and microbial composition on odour in food waste composting

A major problem for composting plants is odour emission. Slow decomposition during prolonged low-pH conditions is a frequent process problem in food waste composting. The aim was to investigate correlations between low pH, odour and microbial composition during food waste composting. Samples from laboratory composting experiments and two large scale composting plants were analysed for odour by olfactometry, as well as physico-chemical and microbial composition. There was large variation in odour, and samples clustered in two groups, one with low odour and high pH (above 6.5), the other with high odour and low pH (below 6.0). The low-odour samples were significantly drier, had lower nitrate and TVOC concentrations and no detectable organic acids. Samples of both groups were dominated by Bacillales or Actinobacteria, organisms which are often indicative of well-functioning composting processes, but the high-odour group DNA sequences were similar to those of anaerobic or facultatively anaerobic species, not to typical thermophilic composting species. High-odour samples also contained Lactobacteria and Clostridia, known to produce odorous substances. A proposed odour reduction strategy is to rapidly overcome the low pH phase, through high initial aeration rates and the use of additives such as recycled compost.     

Managing Protected Areas Under Climate Change: Challenges and Priorities

The implementation of adaptation actions in local conservation management is a new and complex task with multiple facets, influenced by factors differing from site to site. A transdisciplinary perspective is therefore required to identify and implement effective solutions. To address this, the International Conference on Managing Protected Areas under Climate Change brought together international scientists, conservation managers, and decision-makers to discuss current experiences with local adaptation of conservation management. This paper summarizes the main issues for implementing adaptation that emerged from the conference. These include a series of conclusions and recommendations on monitoring, sensitivity assessment, current and future management practices, and legal and policy aspects. A range of spatial and temporal scales must be considered in the implementation of climate-adapted management. The adaptation process must be area-specific and consider the ecosystem and the social and economic conditions within and beyond protected area boundaries. However, a strategic overview is also needed: management at each site should be informed by conservation priorities and likely impacts of climate change at regional or even wider scales. Acting across these levels will be a long and continuous process, requiring coordination with actors outside the “traditional” conservation sector. To achieve this, a range of research, communication, and policy/legal actions is required. We identify a series of important actions that need to be taken at different scales to enable managers of protected sites to adapt successfully to a changing climate.