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981.
Assessing epistemic uncertainties is considered as a milestone for improving numerical predictions of a dynamical system. In hydrodynamics, uncertainties in input parameters translate into uncertainties in simulated water levels through the shallow water equations. We investigate the ability of generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) surrogate to evaluate the probabilistic features of water level simulated by a 1-D hydraulic model (MASCARET) with the same accuracy as a classical Monte Carlo method but at a reduced computational cost. This study highlights that the water level probability density function and covariance matrix are better estimated with the polynomial surrogate model than with a Monte Carlo approach on the forward model given a limited budget of MASCARET evaluations. The gPC-surrogate performance is first assessed on an idealized channel with uniform geometry and then applied on the more realistic case of the Garonne River (France) for which a global sensitivity analysis using sparse least-angle regression was performed to reduce the size of the stochastic problem. For both cases, Galerkin projection approximation coupled to Gaussian quadrature that involves a limited number of forward model evaluations is compared with least-square regression for computing the coefficients when the surrogate is parameterized with respect to the local friction coefficient and the upstream discharge. The results showed that a gPC-surrogate with total polynomial degree equal to 6 requiring 49 forward model evaluations is sufficient to represent the water level distribution (in the sense of the \(\ell _2\) norm), the probability density function and the water level covariance matrix for further use in the framework of data assimilation. In locations where the flow dynamics is more complex due to bathymetry, a higher polynomial degree is needed to retrieve the water level distribution. The use of a surrogate is thus a promising strategy for uncertainty quantification studies in open-channel flows and should be extended to unsteady flows. It also paves the way toward cost-effective ensemble-based data assimilation for flood forecasting and water resource management.  相似文献   
982.
The level of concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in surface soils from petroleum handling facilities (kerosene tank, generating plant, petrol stations, mechanic workshops, leaking pipeline and air port fuel dump) from Calabar metropolis southeastern Nigeria was determined by gas chromatography/ mass spectrometry. The results show that total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) varied from 1.80 to 334.43 mg/kg with a mean of 50.31 mg/kg. The lowest value of 1.80 mg/kg was obtained from petrol station while the highest value of 334.43 mg/kg was obtained from facility characterised by petrol stations and mechanic workshops. The ratio of phenanthrene/anthracene and fluoranthene/pyrene, varied from 0.43 to 27.72 and from 0.14 to 17.76 respectively. These ratios indicate various sources for the PAH. The two to three ring PAHs are the most abundant. Based on the PAH ratios and content alone it is not possible to distinguish between contribution from motor vehicle exhaust, gasoline spillage, used engine oil or petroleum production. However, considering the area of the study, it is very likely that the major source of soil contamination is originating from petroleum product.  相似文献   
983.
Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.  相似文献   
984.
The objective of the study is to reveal the seasonal variations in the river water and sediment quality with respect to heavy metal contamination. To get the extent of trace metals contamination, water and sediment samples were collected from five different sites along the course of Sabarmati River and its tributary Kharicut canal in pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. The concentration of trace metals such as chromium, copper, lead, nickel and zinc was determined using inductively coupled plasma spectroscopy. The concentrations of heavy metals were found to be higher in the pre-monsoon season than in the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons in water samples. The pollution load index, contamination factor and degree of contamination (C d) in sediments were calculated to know the extent of anthropogenic pressures. The values of C d clearly indicated very high degree of contamination at Kharicut canal (S-4: 32.25 and S-5: 54.52) and considerable degree of contamination at three sites of Sabarmati river viz; S-1, S-2 and S-3 with values 14.30, 14.42 and 17.21, respectively. Lead and nickel could not be traced in any of the river water samples.  相似文献   
985.
Groundwater recharge and available groundwater resources in Chithar River basin, Tamil Nadu, India spread over an area of 1,722 km2 have been estimated by considering various hydrological, geological, and hydrogeological parameters, such as rainfall infiltration, drainage, geomorphic units, land use, rock types, depth of weathered and fractured zones, nature of soil, water level fluctuation, saturated thickness of aquifer, and groundwater abstraction. The digital ground elevation models indicate that the regional slope of the basin is towards east. The Proterozoic (Post-Archaean) basement of the study area consists of quartzite, calc-granulite, crystalline limestone, charnockite, and biotite gneiss with or without garnet. Three major soil types were identified namely, black cotton, deep red, and red sandy soils. The rainfall intensity gradually decreases from west to east. Groundwater occurs under water table conditions in the weathered zone and fluctuates between 0 and 25 m. The water table gains maximum during January after northeast monsoon and attains low during October. Groundwater abstraction for domestic/stock and irrigational needs in Chithar River basin has been estimated as 148.84 MCM (million m3). Groundwater recharge due to monsoon rainfall infiltration has been estimated as 170.05 MCM based on the water level rise during monsoon period. It is also estimated as 173.9 MCM using rainfall infiltration factor. An amount of 53.8 MCM of water is contributed to groundwater from surface water bodies. Recharge of groundwater due to return flow from irrigation has been computed as 147.6 MCM. The static groundwater reserve in Chithar River basin is estimated as 466.66 MCM and the dynamic reserve is about 187.7 MCM. In the present scenario, the aquifer is under safe condition for extraction of groundwater for domestic and irrigation purposes. If the existing water bodies are maintained properly, the extraction rate can be increased in future about 10 % to 15 %.  相似文献   
986.
Sequential chemical extraction using chelating agents were used to study the P dynamics and its bioavailability along the surface sediments of the Cochin estuary (southwest coast of India). Sediments were analyzed for major P species (iron bound P, calcium bound P, acid soluble organic P, alkali soluble organic P and residual organic P), Fe, Ca, total carbon, organic carbon, total nitrogen and total sulfur contents. An abrupt increase in the concentration of dissolved inorganic P with increasing salinity was observed in the study region. Iron-bound P exhibited a distinct seasonal pattern with maximum values in the monsoon season when fresh water condition was prevailed in the estuary. As salinity increased, the percentage of iron-bound P decreased, while that of calcium-bound P and total sedimentary sulfur increased. C/P and N/P ratios were low which indicate that large amounts of organic matter enriched with P tend to accumulate in surface sediments. The high organic P contribution in the sedimentary P pool may indicate high organic matter load with incomplete mineralization, as well as comparatively greater percentage of humic substance and resistant organic compounds. Principal component analysis is employed to find the possible processes influencing the speciation of P in the study region and indicate the following processes: (1) the spatial and seasonal variations of calcium bound P and acid soluble organic P was mainly controlled by sediment texture and organic carbon content, (2) sediment redox conditions control the distribution of iron bound P and (3) the terrigenous input of organic P is a significant processes controlling total P content in surface sediments. The bioavailable P was very high in the surface sediments which on an average accounts for 59 % in the pre-monsoon, 65 % in the monsoon and 53 % in the post-monsoon seasons. The surface sediments act as a potential internal source of P in the Cochin estuary.  相似文献   
987.
The glyphosate-based herbicide, Roundup®, is one of the most used pesticides worldwide. In concert with the advent of transgenic crops resistant to glyphosate, the use of this pesticide has led to an increase in agricultural yields. The objective of this study was to evaluate the genotoxic effect that the herbicide Roundup® (at a concentration of 6.67 μg/L, corresponding to 3.20 μg/L glyphosate) can have on the fish Corydoras paleatus. Treatment groups were exposed for 3, 6, and 9 days, and effects were analyzed using the piscine micronucleus test (PMT) and comet assay. A group subjected to filtered water only was used as a negative control. The PMT did not show differences between the control and exposed groups for any of the treatment times. In contrast, the comet assay showed a high rate of DNA damage in group exposed to Roundup® for all treatment times, both for blood and hepatic cells. We conclude that for the low concentration used in this research, the herbicide shows potential genotoxic effects. Future research will be important in evaluating the effects of this substance, whose presence in the environment is ever-increasing.  相似文献   
988.
The lower portion of the Reconquista River is highly polluted. However, little is known about the state of the high and middle basins. The aims of this work were to assess the water quality on the high and middle Reconquista River basins and to determinate if the presence of a reservoir in the river has a positive effect on the water quality. We conducted a seasonal study between August 2009 and November 2010 at the mouth of La Choza, Durazno, and La Horqueta streams at the Roggero reservoir—which receives the water from the former streams—at the origin of the Reconquista River and 17 km downstream from the reservoir. We measured 25 physical and chemical parameters, including six heavy metal concentrations, and performed a multivariate statistical analysis to summarize the information and allow the interpretation of the whole data set. We found that the Durazno and La Horqueta streams had better water quality than La Choza, and the presence of the reservoir contributed to the improvement of the water quality, allowing oxygenation of the water body and processing of organic matter and ammonia. The water quality of the Reconquista River at its origin is good and similar to the reservoir, but a few kilometers downstream, the water quality declines as a consequence of the presence of industries and human settlements. Therefore, the Roggero reservoir produces a significant improvement of water quality of the river, but the discharge of contaminants downstream quickly reverses this effect.  相似文献   
989.
Chemical weathering is one of the major geochemical processes that control the mobilization of heavy metals. The present study provides the first report on heavy metal fractionation in sediments (8–156 m) of Lake Titicaca (3,820 m a.s.l.), which is shared by the Republic of Peru and the Plurinational State of Bolivia. Both contents of total Cu, Fe, Ni, Co, Mn, Cd, Pb, and Zn and also the fractionation of these heavy metals associated with four different fractions have been determined following the BCR scheme. The principal component analysis suggests that Co, Ni, and Cd can be attributed to natural sources related to the mineralized geological formations. Moreover, the sources of Cu, Fe, and Mn are effluents and wastes generated from mining activities, while Pb and Zn also suggest that their common source is associated to mining activities. According to the Risk Assessment Code, there is a moderate to high risk related to Zn, Pb, Cd, Mn, Co, and Ni mobilization and/or remobilization from the bottom sediment to the water column. Furthermore, the Geoaccumulation Index and the Enrichment Factor reveal that Zn, Pb, and Cd are enriched in the sediments. The results suggest that the effluents from various traditional mining waste sites in both countries are the main source of heavy metal contamination in the sediments of Lake Titicaca.  相似文献   
990.
Approximately 20,000 topsoil samples were collected in 25 European Union (EU) Member States (EU-27 except Bulgaria and Romania) with the aim to produce the first coherent pan-European physical and chemical topsoil database, which can serve as baseline information for an EU wide harmonized soil monitoring. The soil sampling was undertaken within the frame of the Land Use/Land Cover Area Frame Survey (LUCAS), a project to monitor changes in the management and character of the land surface of the EU. Soil samples have been analysed for basic soil properties, including particle size distribution, pH, organic carbon, carbonates, NPK, cation exchange capacity (CEC) and multispectral signatures. Preliminary studies show the outstanding potential of the dataset for enhancing the knowledge base on soils in the EU. The current paper provides an introduction to the LUCAS Topsoil 2009 project and provides an example of data applicability for cropland assessment by highlighting initial results for regional and national comparisons.  相似文献   
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