Generality of Models that Predict the Distribution of Species: Conservation Activity and Reduction of Model Transferability for a Threatened Bustard

Abstract:  Predictive models can help clarify the distribution of poorly known species but should display strong transferability when applied to independent data. Nevertheless, model transferability for threatened tropical species is poorly studied. We built models predicting the incidence of the critically endangered Bengal Florican ( Houbaropsis bengalensis ) within the Tonle Sap (TLS) floodplain, Cambodia. Separate models were constructed with soil, land-use, and landscape data and species incidence sampled over the entire floodplain (12,000 km²) and from the Kompong Thom (KT) province (4000 km²). In each case, the probability of Bengal Florican presence within randomly selected 1 × 1 km squares was modeled by binary logistic regression with multimodel inference. We assessed the transferability of the KT model by comparing predictions with observed incidence elsewhere in the floodplain. In terms of standard model-validation statistics, the KT model showed good spatial transferability. Nevertheless, it overpredicted florican presence outside the KT calibration region, classifying 491 km² as suitable habitat compared with 237 km² predicted as suitable by the TLS model. This resulted from higher species incidence within the calibration region, probably owing to a program of conservation education and enforcement that has reduced persecution there. Because both research and conservation activity frequently focus on areas with higher density, such effects could be widespread, reducing transferability of predictive distribution models.     

Modeling the Effects of Anthropogenic Habitat Change on Savanna Snake Invasions into African Rainforest

Abstract:  We used a species-distribution modeling approach, ground-based climate data sets, and newly available remote-sensing data on vegetation from the MODIS and Quick Scatterometer sensors to investigate the combined effects of human-caused habitat alterations and climate on potential invasions of rainforest by 3 savanna snake species in Cameroon, Central Africa: the night adder (Causus maculatus) , olympic lined snake (Dromophis lineatus) , and African house snake (Lamprophis fuliginosus) . Models with contemporary climate variables and localities from native savanna habitats showed that the current climate in undisturbed rainforest was unsuitable for any of the snake species due to high precipitation. Limited availability of thermally suitable nest sites and mismatches between important life-history events and prey availability are a likely explanation for the predicted exclusion from undisturbed rainforest. Models with only MODIS-derived vegetation variables and savanna localities predicted invasion in disturbed areas within the rainforest zone, which suggests that human removal of forest cover creates suitable microhabitats that facilitate invasions into rainforest. Models with a combination of contemporary climate, MODIS- and Quick Scatterometer-derived vegetation variables, and forest and savanna localities predicted extensive invasion into rainforest caused by rainforest loss. In contrast, a projection of the present-day species-climate envelope on future climate suggested a reduction in invasion potential within the rainforest zone as a consequence of predicted increases in precipitation. These results emphasize that the combined responses of deforestation and climate change will likely be complex in tropical rainforest systems.     

Benefits of Investing in Ecosystem Restoration

Measures aimed at conservation or restoration of ecosystems are often seen as net‐cost projects by governments and businesses because they are based on incomplete and often faulty cost‐benefit analyses. After screening over 200 studies, we examined the costs (94 studies) and benefits (225 studies) of ecosystem restoration projects that had sufficient reliable data in 9 different biomes ranging from coral reefs to tropical forests. Costs included capital investment and maintenance of the restoration project, and benefits were based on the monetary value of the total bundle of ecosystem services provided by the restored ecosystem. Assuming restoration is always imperfect and benefits attain only 75% of the maximum value of the reference systems over 20 years, we calculated the net present value at the social discount rates of 2% and 8%. We also conducted 2 threshold cum sensitivity analyses. Benefit‐cost ratios ranged from about 0.05:1 (coral reefs and coastal systems, worst‐case scenario) to as much as 35:1 (grasslands, best‐case scenario). Our results provide only partial estimates of benefits at one point in time and reflect the lower limit of the welfare benefits of ecosystem restoration because both scarcity of and demand for ecosystem services is increasing and new benefits of natural ecosystems and biological diversity are being discovered. Nonetheless, when accounting for even the incomplete range of known benefits through the use of static estimates that fail to capture rising values, the majority of the restoration projects we analyzed provided net benefits and should be considered not only as profitable but also as high‐yielding investments. Beneficios de Invertir en la Restauración de Ecosistemas     

城市污水处理厂好氧颗粒污泥的特性

对城市污水处理厂曝气池中筛选出的好氧颗粒污泥进行了分析.结果表明,这些颗粒污泥的直径主要在0.2～0.8 mm范围;平均圆度为1.29;沉淀速率约在10～42 m h-1之间;比耗氧速率(SOUR)为14.2～18.9 mg g-1h-1,小于活性污泥;挥发性物质占总固体的量与活性污泥基本相似.这些颗粒污泥占污泥总量的0.1%～0.5%.颗粒污泥的激光共聚焦扫描显微镜(CLSM)图像显示:颗粒污泥内部几乎都由胞外聚合物(EPS)组成;细菌主要分布在颗粒污泥表面至100μm厚度区域,少部分分布在100～400μm厚度区域.     

Eradication of Invasive Mammals on Islands Inhabited by Humans and Domestic Animals

Abstract: Non‐native invasive mammal species have caused major ecological change on many islands. To conserve native species diversity, invasive mammals have been eradicated from several islands not inhabited by humans. We reviewed the challenges associated with campaigns to eradicate invasive mammals from islands inhabited by humans and domestic animals. On these islands, detailed analyses of the social, cultural, and economic costs and benefits of eradication are required to increase the probability of local communities supporting the eradication campaign. The ecological benefits of eradication (e.g., improvement of endemic species’ probability of survival) are difficult to trade‐off against social and economic costs due to the lack of a common currency. Local communities may oppose an eradication campaign because of perceived health hazards, inconvenience, financial burdens, religious beliefs, or other cultural reasons. Besides these social challenges, the presence of humans and domestic animals also complicates eradication and biosecurity procedures (measures taken to reduce the probability of unwanted organisms colonizing an island to near zero). For example, houses, garbage‐disposal areas, and livestock‐feeding areas can provide refuges for certain mammals and therefore can decrease the probability of a successful eradication. Transport of humans and goods to an island increases the probability of inadvertent reintroduction of invasive mammals, and the establishment of permanent quarantine measures is required to minimize the probability of unwanted recolonization after eradication. We recommend a close collaboration between island communities, managers, and social scientists from the inception of an eradication campaign to increase the probability of achieving and maintaining an island permanently free of invasive mammals.     

Impact of Grazing Intensity during Drought in an Arizona Grassland

Abstract:  The ecological benefits of changing cattle grazing practices in the western United States remain controversial, due in part to a lack of experimentation. In 1997 we initiated an experimental study of two rangeland alternatives, cattle removal and high-impact grazing, and compared grassland community responses with those with more conventional, moderate grazing practices. The study was conducted in a high-elevation, semiarid grassland near Flagstaff, Arizona (U.S.A.). We conducted annual plant surveys of modified Whittaker plots for 8 years and examined plant composition shifts among treatments and years. High-impact grazing had strong directional effects that led to a decline in perennial forb cover and an increase in annual plants, particularly the exotic cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum L.). A twofold increase in plant cover by exotic species followed a severe drought in the sixth year of the study, and this increase was greatest in the high-impact grazing plots, where native cover declined by one-half. Cattle removal resulted in little increase in native plant cover and reduced plant species richness relative to the moderate grazing control. Our results suggest that some intermediate level of cattle grazing may maintain greater levels of native plant diversity than the alternatives of cattle removal or high-density, short-duration grazing practices. Furthermore, episodic drought interacts with cattle grazing, leading to infrequent, but biologically important shifts in plant communities. Our results demonstrate the importance of climatic variation in determining ecological effects of grazing practices, and we recommend improving conservation efforts in arid rangelands by developing management plans that anticipate this variation.