Changing Drivers of Deforestation and New Opportunities for Conservation

Abstract: Over the past 50 years, human agents of deforestation have changed in ways that have potentially important implications for conservation efforts. We characterized these changes through a meta‐analysis of case studies of land‐cover change in the tropics. From the 1960s to the 1980s, small‐scale farmers, with state assistance, deforested large areas of tropical forest in Southeast Asia and Latin America. As globalization and urbanization increased during the 1980s, the agents of deforestation changed in two important parts of the tropical biome, the lowland rainforests in Brazil and Indonesia. Well‐capitalized ranchers, farmers, and loggers producing for consumers in distant markets became more prominent in these places and this globalization weakened the historically strong relationship between local population growth and forest cover. At the same time, forests have begun to regrow in some tropical uplands. These changing circumstances, we believe, suggest two new and differing strategies for biodiversity conservation in the tropics, one focused on conserving uplands and the other on promoting environmental stewardship in lowlands and other areas conducive to industrial agriculture.     

How Many Species Are There in Brazil?

Abstract:  We produced estimates of the total number of species currently known and the total numbers predicted to occur in Brazil. Lists of species recorded in Brazil were obtained from specialists and the literature. For taxa lacking information on total known species, we produced estimates based on bootstrap resampling from a set of 87 taxa with checklists for Brazil and the world. The estimated proportion of Brazilian species was 9.5% of the world total (95% CI, 8.5 to 11.5%). From this we estimated a known Brazilian biota of 170,000 to 210,000 species. We used a similar procedure to estimate Brazil's total biota—known plus undiscovered. Based on 17 relatively well-known taxa, the average Brazilian share in the world's biota was estimated at 13.1% (CI 10.0 to 17.6%). Accordingly we estimated the country's total biota at 1.8 million species (CI 1.4 to 2.4 million). Given that the Neotropics is the least-studied major region of the world, these figures are still likely to be underestimates and hence may be taken as a lower bound of the actual proportion of the world's species that occur in Brazil. Scientists, policy makers, and citizens will find these numbers useful in appreciating the magnitude of the tasks involved in surveying, describing, and conserving the country's biota. The numbers also bring proposals and priorities into a more realistic perspective.     

Effects of Historic Livestock Grazing on Vegetation at Chaco Culture National Historic Park, New Mexico

Abstract:   Livestock grazing is the most ubiquitous land use in western North America, yet it rarely has been studied in a controlled manner because of the lack of large areas free of grazing. We compared the ecological effects of three grazing treatments—long-term protection, short-term protection, and currently grazed—at Chaco Culture National Historic Park in northern New Mexico. Chaco has a long history of human habitation and is now one of the largest grazing exclosures in the American West. We studied the effects of livestock grazing on the cover of plants, soil crusts, and plant species richness at six sites with different potential natural vegetation. Species richness was higher under long-term protection than under current grazing at all six sites. Trends in shrub and grass response varied significantly across the six sites. Shrub cover increased with long-term protection at four upland sites, and grass cover increased with protection at four sites. The response of Chaco vegetation to release from grazing varied significantly according to each site's ecological potential, determined in part by edaphic and topographic characteristics. These nuances in vegetation response represent natural ecological variation and contrast with the notions of widespread shrub "invasion" often inferred in the past.     

Ecological Uses of Vertebrate Indicator Species: A Critique

Abstract: Plant and animal species have been used for decades as indicators of air and water quality and agricultural and range conditions. Increasingly, vertebrates are used to assess population trends and habitat quality for other species. In this paper we review the conceptual bases, assumptions, and published guidelines for selection and use of vertebrates as ecological indicators. We conclude that an absence of precise definitions and procedures, confounded criteria used to select species, and discordance with ecological literature severely weaken the effectiveness and credibility of using vertebrates as ecological indicators. In many cases the use of ecological indicator species is inappropriate, but when necessary, the following recommendations will make their use more rigorous: (1) clearly state assessment goals, (2) use indicators only when other assessment options are unavailable, (3) choose indicator species by explicitly defined criteria that are in accord with assessment goals, (4) include all species that fulfill stated selection criteria (5) know the biology of the indicator in detail, and treat the indicator as a formal estimator in conceptual and statistical models, (6) identify and define sources of subjectivity when selecting monitoring and intetpreting indicator species, (7) submit assessment design, methods of data collection and statistical analysis, interpretations, and recommendations to peer review and (8) direct research at developing an overall strategy for monitoring wildlife that accounts for natural variability in population attributes and incorporates concepts from landscape ecology.     

The Worldwide Availability of Gold

This paper summarizes Bureau of Mines research relating to the state of the world gold industry. The authors discuss the world gold industry structure, demonstrated gold resources, current production, and the long-term cost and availability of potential future gold production.
The long-term cost and availability of primary gold production from 111 significant producing mines and developing deposits in 13 market economy countries (MECs) is evaluated. Total recoverable gold available (as of January 1984) from the evaluated mines and deposits is estimated at 819 million troy ounces. The Republic of South Africa is estimated to account for 87% of total recoverable gold. The USA and Canada account for 4% and 4.5% of the total, respectively. Eighty-three per cent of total recoverable gold is available at a constant 1984 break-even price of $400 per ounce, and 70% is available at $300 per ounce. South Africa accounts for 90% of the gold available at $400 per ounce or less. Gold resources in the Soviet Union and China are discussed but not evaluated for costs of production. Some conclusions of the analyses are that South Africa should remain the largest world producer until the year 2000 and annual MEC output in the year 2000 should not be significantly different from current output, given constant 1984 gold prices of more than $300 per ounce.     

Population Estimates of Fruit Bats (Pteropus mariannus) in the Mariana Islands

Abstract: Populations of Marianas fruit bats, Pteropus mariannus, were surveyed on each of the 15 Mariana Islands in 1983–1984. It is estimated that a minimum of 8,700–9,000 fruit bats occur in the archipelago, with about 8245% of these bats found on the nine northernmost and largely uninhabited islands. The islands of Anatahan, Pagan, and Agrihan had the largest populations, with minimum population estimates of 3,000, 2,500, and 1,000 bats, respectively. Smaller populations of about 400–1,000 fruit bats occurred on Asuncion, Guam, Rota, and Guam. The remaining is-ands in the archipelago were each estimated to have fewer than 125 bats. Population densities of fruit bats were highest on islands with little bunting but were generally much lower on human-inhabited islands where bunting was common. Quantity and quality of existing habitat were other important factors regulating the size of fruit bat populations in the Marianas. Increased enforcement of existing laws protecting bats and a public awareness program are important tasks needed to conserve and manage fmit bats in the Marianu Islands. The census techniques used in this study may be applicable to other fypes of colonial, mobile wildlife that inhabit islands.     

Benefits of Conservation of Plant Genetic Diversity to Arthropod Diversity

Abstract:  We argue that the genetic diversity of a dominant plant is important to the associated dependent community because dependent species such as herbivores are restricted to a subset of genotypes in the host-plant population. For plants that function as habitat, we predicted that greater genetic diversity in the plant population would be associated with greater diversity in the dependent arthropod community. Using naturally hybridizing cottonwoods (  Populus spp.) in western North America as a model system, we tested the general hypothesis that arthropod alpha (within cross-type richness) and beta (among cross-type composition) diversities are correlated with cottonwood cross types from local to regional scales. In common garden experiments and field surveys, leaf-modifying arthropod richness was significantly greater on either the F₁ (1.54 times) or backcross (1.46 times) hybrid cross types than on the pure broadleaf cross type (  P. deltoides Marshall or P. fremontii Watson). Composition was significantly different among three cross types of cottonwoods at all scales. Within a river system, cottonwood hybrid zones had 1.49 times greater richness than the broadleaf zone, and community composition was significantly different between each parental zone and the hybrid zone, demonstrating a hierarchical concentration of diversity. Overall, the habitats with the highest cottonwood cross-type diversity also had the highest arthropod diversity. These data show that the genetics of habitat is an important conservation concept and should be a component of conservation theory.     

Susceptibility of a Northern Hardwood Forest to Exotic Earthworm Invasion

Abstract:  Numerous exotic earthworm species are colonizing northern hardwood forests of North America, where no native earthworms exist. Upon invasion, earthworms have been shown to alter the surface soil environment and plant populations and communities. We sought to identify land-use factors in the Ottawa National Forest (ONF), Michigan (U.S.A.), that contribute to earthworm invasion in forest dominated by sugar maple ( Acer saccharum Marsh.) so that the susceptibility to additional colonization could be evaluated. We sampled earthworm communities in Sylvania Wilderness Area, a unique old-growth hardwood forest, and nonwilderness sites influenced by recreational fishing, recent timber harvesting, or roads. All the nonwilderness sites contained one to five species of exotic earthworms. In contrast, only 50% of wilderness sites contained exotic earthworms, all of a single species. Nonwilderness sites also had thinner litter and duff layers, higher soil C and N content, and higher nitrogen mineralization potentials than Sylvania sites. Two central differences between Sylvania and nonwilderness sites were that all nonwilderness sites were in close contact with roads and had a history of timber harvest, whereas these factors were not present in Sylvania Wilderness Area. Using average rates of colonization, we constructed two geographic information system models to estimate the percentage of sugar maple on the ONF falling within a theoretical 100-year invasion distance of roads and of second-growth sugar maple as relative indices of susceptibility to invasion. Both models indicated high susceptibility to invasion, with 91.7% and 98.9% of sugar maple habitat falling within a theoretical 100-year invasion distance of roads or historical harvests, respectively.     

Ecology of Pacific Yew (Taxus brevifolia) in Western Oregon and Washington

Taxus brevifolia , a subcanopy tree or shrub in forests of the Pacific Northwest, has been harvested intensively in recent years. With management concerns as an impetus, we examined the distribution and population dynamics of Taxus based on data from the mountains of western Oregon and Washington. Surveys of natural forests, long-term studies of forest recovery following logging, and census data on marked trees in forest stands support the hypothesis that Taxus is a widespread but predominantly late-successional species. Sensitive to fire and slow to recover from disturbance on many sites, Taxus attains maximal basal area and adult stem density in old forests. Colonization of Taxus is often slow in potentially suitable habitats. Conservation of Taxus at the landscape level may require large, unmanaged reserves and maintenance of patches of old forest within managed forests. Long rotations (centuries) between harvest events will enhance the long-term viability of the species. Practices designed to accelerate the development of old-growth forest structure will not benefit Taxus and other species requiring long disturbance-free intervals for recovery.