ASSESSMENT OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AN URBAN CATCHMENT1

ABSTRACT: Stationarity of rainfall statistical parameters is a fundamental assumption in hydraulic infrastructure design that may not be valid in an era of changing climate. This study develops a framework for examining the potential impacts of future increases in short duration rainfall intensity on urban infrastructure and natural ecosystems of small watersheds and demonstrates this approach for the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed in British Columbia, Canada. Nonstationarities in rainfall records are first analyzed with linear regression analysis, and the detected trends are extrapolated to build potential future rainfall scenarios. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used to analyze the effects of increased rainfall intensity on design peak flows and to assess future drainage infrastructure capacity according to the derived scenarios. While the framework provided herein may be modified for cases in which more complex distributions for rainfall intensity are needed and more sophisticated stormwater management models are available, linear regressions and SWMM are commonly used in practice and are applicable for the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed. Potential future impacts on stream health are assessed using methods based on equivalent total impervious area. In terms of impacts on the drainage infrastructure, the results of this study indicate that increases in short duration rainfall intensity may be expected in the future but that they would not create severe impacts in the Mission/Wagg Creek system. The equivalent levels of imperviousness, however, suggest that the impacts on stream health could be far more damaging.     

HYDROLOGIC MODELING OF A BIOINFILTRATION BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICE1

ABSTRACT: The goal of this research was to develop a methodology for modeling a bioinfiltration best management practice (BMP) built in a dormitory area on the campus of Villanova University in Pennsylvania. The objectives were to quantify the behavior of the BMP through the different seasons and rainfall events; better understand the physical processes governing the system's behavior; and develop design criteria. The BMP was constructed in 2001 by excavating within an existing traffic island, backfilling with a sand/soil mixture, and planting with salt tolerant grasses and shrubs native to the Atlantic shore. It receives runoff from the asphalt (0.26 hectare) and turf (0.27 hectare) surfaces of the watershed. Monitoring supported by the hydrologic model shows that the facility infiltrates a significant fraction of the annual precipitation, substantially reducing the delivery of nonpoint source pollution and erosive surges downstream. A hydrologic model was developed using HEC‐HMS to represent the site and the BMP using Green‐Ampt and kinematic wave methods. Instruments allow comparison of the modeled and measured water budget parameters. The model, incorporating seasonally variable parameters, predicts the volumes infiltrated and bypassed by the BMP, confirming the applicability of the selected methods for the analysis of bioinfiltration BMPs.     

Leadership self‐efficacy and managers' motivation for leading change

This study develops and tests a leadership model that focuses on managers' motivation for attempting the leadership of change. The construct of leadership self‐efficacy (LSE) is defined, and a measure comprising three dimensions (direction‐setting, gaining followers' commitment, and overcoming obstacles to change) is developed. Based on Bandura's (1986) social cognitive theory, the primary hypothesis is that high LSE managers will be seen by direct reports as engaging in more leadership attempts. Relationships are also proposed between LSE and several factors that are expected to influence this confidence judgment. Managers' organizational commitment and crisis perceptions are modelled as potential moderators of the relationship between LSE and leadership attempts. The model was tested through surveys distributed to managers (n = 150) and their direct reports (n = 415) in a real estate management company and an industrial chemicals firm. Positive relationships (p < 0.05) were found between the first two dimensions of LSE and managers' leadership attempts. An interaction effect involving organizational commitment was discovered for the LSE/overcoming obstacles dimension (p < 0.05). Several positive relationships were found between LSE dimensions and proposed antecedents, including self‐esteem (p < 0.05), subordinates' performance abilities (p < 0.05), and managers' job autonomy (p < 0.05). Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Results from Three Field Tracer Experiments on the Neighbourhood Scale in the City of Birmingham UK

The physical processes governing flow and pollutantdispersion at the neighbourhood scale, a spatial scaleintermediate between the street scale and the city scale, is notwell understood. Furthermore, it is not clear whether a traditional approach using averaged characteristics such as theaerodynamic roughness length is sufficient to predict the concentration field at this scale. To investigate pollutant dispersion in a real urban area, three field experiments were designed within the UK-URGENT programme sponsored by NERC. Theexperiments were performed in the City of Birmingham using a finite duration release of inert, non-toxic and non-depositingtracers, vis. perfluoromethylcyclohexane (PMCH) and perfluoromethylcyclopentane (PMCP). Measurements were taken using air bag samplers placedin an arc at 3.5 km (first experiment) and 1 km (second andthird experiments) from the source; some trap samplers wereplaced outside the main arc in the outskirts of the city. Measurements were analysed in the laboratory using anovel gas-chromatography technique. Data so obtained werecompared with predictions from a simple steady-state modeland a time-dependent model. The concentration-time serieswere very asymmetrical with a sharp rise, a plateau followedby a relatively slow decrease and finally a long-livedplateau above (or possibly very slow decrease to) thebackground level.     

Chemical Changes in Sediment Pore-Waters of an Acidic Mining Lake After Addition of Organic Substrate and Lime for Stimulating Lake Remediation

In the past five years, enclosures have beeninstalled in an acidic mining lake in Lusatia to investigate insitu remediation processes. They were treated with straw, withstraw and Carbokalk, or with Carbokalk alone, where Carbokalkis a by-product of the sugar industry (solid precipitate ofnon-sugars after lime clarification of extracted sugar beetjuice). Sediment samples were taken as cores to get informationabout the behaviour of organic and inorganic components insediment pore-water with depth. Vertical distributions of pH,soluble reactive phosphate, nitrate, ammonium, silica,aluminium, iron, manganese, calcium, magnesium, sodium,potassium, sulphate, and DOC were measured. The resultingprofiles, each consisting of 15 data points at differentdepths, were compared by cluster analysis. The similarities ofsediment cores from different treated enclosures relating toprofiles of chemical components were discussed. Increasedconcentrations of potassium and sulphate were found in pore-water after substrate treatment. The data imply dissolution ofpotassium iron sulphate hydroxide minerals (jarosite) after anincrease of pH caused by dissolution of lime and by sulphatereducing processes which were stimulated by organic substrateaddition.     

Industrial Tailings in Traunsee (Austria) Revisited: The Status of 1999

Alkaline tailings from a salt work and a soda plant have been pumped into the southernmost part of Traunsee at Ebensee for many decades. A survey in 1981 showed an accumulation of more than 3 × 10⁶ m³ alkaline mud in the Bay of Ebensee and the existence of slumping structures and turbidites in the profundal zone of the lake. A new survey of the industrial tailings has been performed in 1999. Compared to the earlier survey, the accumulation in the Bay of Ebensee has grown to >4 × 10⁶ m³, which suggests an average yearly input of 90 000 m³. Slumping structures and turbidites document the unstable situation of the tailings near the waste inlet. The lake area occasionally affected by the turbidity currents in the profundal zone has increased to 19%. Within the central profundal area these tailings reach <1 m in thickness.     

Development of Stream Water Chemistry during Spring Melt in a Northern Hardwood Forest

The role of snowmelt and subsurface hydrology in determiningthe chemistry of a small headwater stream in the TurkeyLakes Watershed (TLW) was evaluated for the spring meltperiods 1992 to 1996. Spring runoff is the dominanthydrological event at the TLW each year. Processesoccurring within the snowpack during snowmelt wereprincipally responsible for the above-ground changes inchemical fluxes relative to bulk deposition (the effect ofwinter throughfall was minimal). Large changes in chemicalfluxes occurred below ground. Organic matter decomposition,weathering, nitrification, and element cycling are some ofthe more important below-ground processes that operateduring the snow accumulation and ablation season and controlthe composition of the water ultimately appearing in thestream. Maximum stream discharge was accompanied byelevated concentrations of H⁺, NO₃ ^-, K⁺,NH₄ ⁺, DOC, Al and Mn, but reduced levels ofCa²⁺, Mg²⁺, SO₄ ^2- and SiO₂. Theconcentration-discharge relationships were consistent withwater movement through and above the forest floor duringpeak discharge, a flowpath facilitated by rapid infiltrationof meltwater and the existence of a relatively impermeablelayer in the mineral soil creating a perched water table. Averaged over the five periods of snow accumulation andablation, it was estimated that pre-melt stream flow, andwater routed through the forest floor and through the uppermineral soil contributed 9, 28 and 63%, respectively, ofthe discharge measured at the outlet of the catchment. Theforest floor contribution would be greater at peak dischargeand at higher elevations. An end-member mixing modelestimated concentrations of SO₄ ^2-, NO₃ ^-,Cl^-, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺ and Al that werecomparable to average values measured in the stream. Othervariables (NH₄ ⁺, H⁺, K⁺ and DOC) wereover-estimated implying retention mechanisms operatingoutside the model assumptions.     

A comparative study of risk perception in small and large communities where chemical industries are present

Opinion polls were conducted to assess the level of risk perceived by the citizens in communities of different sizes where chemical industries were present. The aim of the study was to relate the risk perceived to variables such as the nature of risks, the specific information received regarding the industrial activity and the economic impact of this activity in the community.