Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science

Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge.     

Plant-mediated and nonadditive effects of two global change drivers on an insect herbivore community

Warmer temperatures can alter the phenology and distribution of individual species. However, differences across species may blur community-level phenological responses to climate or cause biotic homogenization by consistently favoring certain taxa. Additionally, the response of insect communities to climate will be subject to plant-mediated effects, which may or may not overshadow the direct effect of rising temperatures on insects. Finally, recent evidence for the importance of interaction effects between global change drivers suggests that phenological responses of communities to climate may be altered by other drivers. We used a natural temperature gradient (generated by elevation and topology), combined with experimental nitrogen fertilization, to investigate the effects of elevated temperature and globally increasing anthropogenic nitrogen deposition on the structure and phenology of a seminatural grassland herbivore assemblage (lepidopteran insects). We found that both drivers, alone and in combination, severely altered how the relative abundance and composition of species changed through time. Importantly, warmer temperatures were associated with biotic homogenization, such that herbivore assemblages in the warmest plots had more similar species composition than those in intermediate or cool plots. Changes in herbivore composition and abundance were largely mediated by changes in the plant community, with increased nonnative grass cover under high treatment levels being the strongest determinant of herbivore abundance. In addition to compositional changes, total herbivore biomass more than doubled under elevated nitrogen and increased more than fourfold with temperature, bearing important functional implications for herbivores as consumers and as a prey resource. The crucial role of nonnative plant dominance in mediating responses of herbivores to change, combined with the frequent nonadditive (positive and negative) effects of the two drivers, and the differential responses of species, highlight that understanding complex ecosystem responses will benefit from multifactor, multitrophic experiments at community scales or larger.     

Improving visitor management approaches for the changing preferences and behaviours of country park visitors in Hong Kong

This study identified the changing preferences of country park visitors in Hong Kong and the potential for such changes to have further negative impacts on the ecologically sensitive areas of country parks. A questionnaire was used to collect feedback from 644 country park visitors to understand their preferences and visitation patterns. To investigate visitors’ preferences and behaviours and to develop better visitor management strategies, the survey data were compared with studies conducted 20 years ago. The results showed that the most popular nature‐based activities of 20 years ago, namely, picnicking and barbecuing, have significantly declined in popularity, while other activities, namely, nature studies and nature photography, have surged in popularity in recent years. These changes in visitor preferences have directly increased the negative impacts of visitors on country parks as they dispersed away from the high intensity recreation zones to the ecological sensitive areas. This emerging group of country park visitors has not been fully considered in the existing approach to visitor management and may irreversibly impact the ecological value of country parks. In this study, visitor management in Hong Kong's country parks was reviewed based on these research findings, and potential improvements were suggested.     

Major Forest Types and the Evolution of Sustainable Forestry in China

In this article, we introduce China’s major forest types and discuss the historical development of forest management in China, including actions taken over the last decade toward achieving SMF. Major challenges are identified, and a strategy for SFM implementation in China is presented. China’s forests consist of a wide variety of types with distinctive distributional patterns shaped by complex topography and multiple climate regimes. How to manage this wide array of forest resources has challenged forest managers and policy-makers since the founding of the country. Excessive exploitation of China's forest resources from the 1950s to the late 1990s contributed to environmental problems and calamities, such as floods, soil erosion, and desertification. At the start of the new millennium, the Chinese government decided to shift its emphasis from timber production towards the achievement of sustainable forest management (SFM). With a series of endeavors such as the implementation of the “Six Key Forestry Projects” and the reform of forest tenure policies, and the adoption of a classification system for China's forests, a beginning has been made at reversing the trend of environmental degradation that occurred throughout the latter half of the last century. At the same time, huge challenges remain to be tackled for the development of forestry in China.     

Inferring linear feature use in the presence of GPS measurement error

Global Positioning System (GPS) collars are increasingly used to study animal movement and habitat use. Measurement error is defined as the difference between the observed and true value being measured. In GPS data measurement error is referred to as location error and leads to misclassification of observed locations into habitat types. This is particularily true when studying habitats of small spatial extent with large amounts of edge, such as linear features (e.g. roads and seismic lines). However, no consistent framework exists to address the effect of measurement error on habitat classification of observed locations and resulting biological inference. We developed a mechanistic, empirically-based method for buffering linear features that minimizes the underestimation of animal use introduced by GPS measurement error. To do this we quantified the distribution of measurement error and derived an explicit formula for buffer radius which incorporated the error distribution, the width of the linear feature, and a predefined amount of acceptable type I error in location classification. In our empirical study we found the GPS measurement error of the Lotek GPS_3300 collar followed a bivariate Laplace distribution with parameter ρ = 0.1123. When we applied our method to a simulated landscape, type I error was reduced by 57%. This study highlights the need to address the effect of GPS measurement error in animal location classification, particularily for habitats of small spatial extent.     

Invasion with stage-structured coupled map lattices: Application to the spread of scentless chamomile

Two fundamental aspects of invasion dynamics are population growth and population spread. These quantities have been subject of study in biological invasions and can be used to study management and control of organisms. In this paper we derive formulae to calculate wave speed and rates of spread for coupled map lattices. Coupled map lattice models are dynamical models where space and time are discrete. We also show how wave speed and rate of spread can be calculated for structured population coupled map lattices in deterministic, stochastic environments and heterogeneous landscapes. Coupled map lattices are simple mathematical models that can be easily linked to landscape data to study invading organisms control strategies.     

Stream buffer effectiveness in an agriculturally influenced area, southwestern Georgia: responses of water quality, macroinvertebrates, and amphibians

To determine useful metrics for assessing stream water quality in the Southeastern Coastal Plain, we examined differences among two buffered and three unbuffered streams in an agricultural landscape in southwestern Georgia. Potential indicators included amphibian diversity and abundance, aquatic macroinvertebrate populations, riparian vegetative structure, water quality, and stream physical parameters. Variability among sites and treatments (buffered vs. unbuffered) existed, with sites in the same treatment as most similar, and disturbances from a nearby eroding gully strongly affecting one unbuffered site. Of the invertebrate metrics examined, percentages of clingers, Ephemeroptera-Plecoptera-Trichoptera (EPT), Elmidae (Coleoptera), Crustacea (Decapoda and Amphipoda), and dipterans were found to be possible indicators of stream health for perennial streams within this region. Overall, buffered sites showed higher percentages of sensitive invertebrate groups and showed lower and more stable concentrations of nitrate N, suspended solids, and fecal coliforms (FCs). Percent canopy cover was similar among sites; however, riparian vegetative coverage and percent leaf litter were greatest at buffered sites. No differences in amphibian abundance, presence, and absence within the riparian area were apparent between sites; however, instream larval salamanders were more abundant at buffered streams. In this study, stream buffers appeared to decrease nutrient and sediment loads to adjacent streams, enhancing overall water quality. Selected benthic macroinvertebrate metrics and amphibian abundance also appeared sensitive to agricultural influences. Amphibians show potential as indicator candidates, however further information is needed on their responses and tolerances to disturbances from the microhabitat to landscape levels.     

Nitrate and sediment fluxes from a California rangeland watershed

Long-term water quality records for assessing natural variability, impact of management, and that guide regulatory processes to safeguard water resources are rare for California oak woodland rangelands. This study presents a 20-yr record (1981-2000) of nitrate-nitrogen (NO(3)-N) and suspended sediment export from a typical, grazed oak woodland watershed (103 ha) in the northern Sierra Nevada foothills of California. Mean annual precipitation over the 20-yr period was 734 mm yr(-1) (range 366-1205 mm yr(-1)). Mean annual stream flow was 353 mm y(-1) (range 87-848 mm yr(-1)). Average annual stream flow was 48.1 +/- 16% of precipitation. Mean annual NO(3)-N export was 1.6 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) (range 0.18-3.6 kg ha(-1) yr(-1)). Annual NO(3)-N export significantly (P < 0.05) increased with increasing annual stream flow and precipitation. Mean daily NO(3)-N export was 0.004 kg ha(-1) d(-1) (range 10(-5) to 0.55 kg ha(-1) d(-1)). Mean annual suspended sediment export was 198 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) (range 23-479 kg ha(-1) yr(-1)). There was a positive relationship (P < 0.05) between annual suspended sediment export, annual stream flow and precipitation. Mean daily suspended sediment export was 0.54 kg ha(-1) d(-1) (range 10(-4) to 155 kg ha(-1) d(-1)). Virtually no sediment was exported during the dry season. The large variation in daily and annual fluxes highlights the necessity of using long-term records to establish quantitative water quality targets for rangelands and demonstrates the difficulty of designing a water quality monitoring program for these ecosystems.     

Great Basin Land Management Planning Using Ecological Modeling

This report describes a land management modeling effort that analyzed potential impacts of proposed actions under an updated Bureau of Land Management Resource Management Plan that will guide management for 20 years on 4.6 million hectares in the Great Basin ecoregion of the United States. State-and-transition models that included vegetation data, fire histories, and many parameters (i.e., rates of succession, fire return intervals, outcomes of management actions, and invasion rates of native and nonnative invasive species) were developed through workshops with scientific experts and range management specialists. Alternative restoration scenarios included continuation of current management, full fire suppression, wildfire use in designated fire use zones, wildfire use in resilient vegetation types only, restoration with a tenfold budget increase, no restoration treatments, and no livestock grazing. Under all the scenarios, cover of vegetation states with native perennial understory declined and was replaced by tree-invaded and weed-dominated states. The greatest differences among alternative management scenarios resulted from the use of fire as a tool to maintain native understory. Among restoration scenarios, only the scenario assuming a tenfold budget increase had a more desirable outcome than the current management scenario. Removal of livestock alone had little effect on vegetation resilience. Rather, active restoration was required. The predictive power of the model was limited by current understanding of Great Basin vegetation dynamics and data needs including statistically valid monitoring of restoration treatments, invasiveness and invasibility, and fire histories. The authors suggest that such computer models can be useful tools for systematic analysis of potential impacts in land use planning. However, for a modeling effort to be productive, the management situation must be conducive to open communication among land management agencies and partner entities, including nonprofit organizations.