Estimating the mitigation effect of Tokai earthquake measures on housing damage: a counterfactual approach

This paper evaluates the mitigation effect of Tokai earthquake measures on housing damage using a counterfactual approach. It focuses on those measures that stimulate ex‐ante investment in disaster prevention in the supposedly affected area, including earthquake‐proof retrofitting and improved housing construction; the effect of the measures on housing losses is estimated monetarily. The study compares factual disaster damage computed using a real distribution of houses with counterfactual damage to a hypothetical housing distribution that would occur if the measures were not implemented. The key findings are: (i) the disaster mitigation effects of Tokai earthquake measures on housing amount to approximately JPY 18 billion (USD 0.18 billion) for Yamanashi Prefecture and JPY 0.26 trillion (USD 2.6 billion) for Shizuoka Prefecture, which would be at the centre of the event; (ii) a before–after comparison biases estimates of the mitigation effect; and (iii) statistically, the measures do not mitigate the housing damage predicted for an earthquake in Tokai.     

Effects of whole spine alignment patterns on neck responses in rear end impact

Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the whole spine alignment in automotive seated postures for both genders and the effects of the spinal alignment patterns on cervical vertebral motion in rear impact using a human finite element (FE) model.

Methods: Image data for 8 female and 7 male subjects in a seated posture acquired by an upright open magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) system were utilized. Spinal alignment was determined from the centers of the vertebrae and average spinal alignment patterns for both genders were estimated by multidimensional scaling (MDS). An occupant FE model of female average size (162 cm, 62 kg; the AF 50 size model) was developed by scaling THUMS AF 05. The average spinal alignment pattern for females was implemented in the model, and model validation was made with respect to female volunteer sled test data from rear end impacts. Thereafter, the average spinal alignment pattern for males and representative spinal alignments for all subjects were implemented in the validated female model, and additional FE simulations of the sled test were conducted to investigate effects of spinal alignment patterns on cervical vertebral motion.

Results: The estimated average spinal alignment pattern was slight kyphotic, or almost straight cervical and less-kyphotic thoracic spine for the females and lordotic cervical and more pronounced kyphotic thoracic spine for the males. The AF 50 size model with the female average spinal alignment exhibited spine straightening from upper thoracic vertebra level and showed larger intervertebral angular displacements in the cervical spine than the one with the male average spinal alignment.

Conclusions: The cervical spine alignment is continuous with the thoracic spine, and a trend of the relationship between cervical spine and thoracic spinal alignment was shown in this study. Simulation results suggested that variations in thoracic spinal alignment had a potential impact on cervical spine motion as well as cervical spinal alignment in rear end impact condition.     

Relationship between indoor and outdoor carbonaceous particulates in roadside households

Concentrations of particulate matter (PM) and carbonaceous particulates in indoor and outdoor air at roadside private households were measured in Osaka, Japan. The particulate samples were collected on filters using a portable AND sampler capable of separating particles into three different size ranges: over 10 microm, 2-10 microm (coarse) and below 2 microm (fine) in aerodynamic diameter. The filters were weighed and then analyzed for elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC) by thermal oxidation using a CHN CORDER. The results showed that indoor fine PM concentration is considerably affected by fine EC and the fine EC in indoor air is significantly correlated to that in outdoor air, r=0.86 (n=30, p<0.001). A simple estimation from EC content ratio in diesel exhaust particles indicated that about 30% of indoor particulates of less than 10 microm (PM10) were contributed from diesel exhaust. Additionally, the size characteristics of outdoor PM at roadside and background sites were examined using Andersen Cascade Impactors.     

Comparison of trace element accumulation in Baikal seals (Pusa sibirica), Caspian seals (Pusa caspica) and northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus)

Concentrations of 18 trace elements (V, Cr, Mn, Co, Cu, Zn, Se, Rb, Sr, Zr, Mo, Ag, Cd, Sb, Cs, Hg, Tl and Pb) were determined in liver, kidney, muscle and hair of Baikal seals, Caspian seals and northern fur seals. All the three species showed the highest concentrations of Hg, V, Mn, Se and Ag in liver, Cd, Co and Tl in kidney, and Cs in muscle among the soft tissues examined. The highest burdens of Zn, Rb and Cs were observed in muscle, Mo and Ag in liver, and Sb and Pb in hair in all the three species. Concentrations of non-essential elements, Rb, Cd, Cs and Hg, showed significant positive correlations among liver, kidney and muscle, whereas correlation coefficients for essential elements, Mn, Co, Cu, Zn and Se, between the three tissues were generally low for all the species, suggesting that homeostasis controls the concentrations of essential elements but not the non-essential elements in the tissues of these animals. Significant age-dependent increase was found in the concentrations of V, Se and Ag in liver and Hg in liver and kidney of all the three species. Hair concentrations showed significant positive correlations with Zn levels in liver and kidney and Hg in muscle for Caspian seals, Hg in liver and kidney for Baikal seals, and Pb in liver for northern fur seals. Furthermore, regression analysis using the data in the present study and in the literature showed significant positive correlations between Hg levels in hair, and liver, kidney and muscle for various species of pinnipeds. These results indicate the possibility of using hair samples for monitoring these trace elements in pinnipeds.     

Contamination of butyltin and phenyltin compounds in the marine environment of Otsuchi Bay, Japan

Butyltin (BT) and phenyltin (PT) compounds were measured in seawater, sediment, and biological samples collected from coastal areas of Otsuchi Bay, Japan. Tributyltin (TBT) compounds in seawater, sediment, plankton, mussels, scallops and fish were in the range of 0.008-0.074 microg liter(-1), 0.01-0.64 mg (kg dry wt)(-1), 0.24-9.8 mg (kg dry wt)(-1), 0.04-0.18 mg (kg wet wt)(-1), 0.10-0.13 mg (kg wet wt)(-1) and 0.01-0.02 mg (kg wet wt)(-1), respectively. Trace amount of PTs were found in seawater. The highest concentrations of TBT and triphenyltin (TPT) were found near a shipyard. Triorganotin compounds were more dominant than their metabolites. A positive correlation was observed between the concentrations of TBT and TPT in the mussels. Concentrations of TBT and TPT in mussels were high in the upper intertidal zone, and decreased toward the water.     

Bioaccumulation profiles of polychlorinated biphenyls including coplanar congeners and possible toxicological implications in Baikal seal (Phoca sibirica)

Isomer specific concentrations of individual polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) including toxic non-ortho (IUPAC 77, 126, 169), mono-ortho (105, 118, 156) and di-ortho (137, 138, 153, 180) coplanar congeners were determined in the blubber of 40 Baikal seals (Phoca sibirica) and as their fish diet collected from Lake Baikal, Siberia. Residue levels of total PCBs in Baikal seals were noticeably high and comparable to those reported for seals from the North Sea, suggesting the recent usage of this compound in the watershed of Lake Baikal. Non-, mono-, and di-ortho coplanar congeners were also detected in Baikal seals and fish. An approach to estimate bioaccumulation profiles of PCB congeners revealed that the non-ortho PCBs, IUPAC 77, 126 and 169 seemed to be less persistent than other congeners. Furthermore, selective biotransformation of PCB congeners having either meta-para vicinal H atoms or both adjacent chlorinated meta-para and ortho-meta positions has been suggested. Comparison of 2,3,7,8-TCDD toxic equivalents (TEQ) of non-, mono- and di-ortho coplanar congeners in Baikal seals with those for other marine mammals suggested higher enrichment of mono-ortho congeners, particularly IUPAC 105 and 118, which contributed significantly to the total TEQs in Baikal seals. Results imply that the TCDD-like toxicity is relatively serious in Baikal seals, because of the enrichment of these toxic PCB congeners in tissues.     

Perfluorinated organic compounds in human blood serum and seminal plasma: a study of urban and rural tea worker populations in Sri Lanka

Concentrations and accumulation of 13 fluorinated organic compounds (FOCs) in human sera and seminal plasma were measured in an Asian developing country, Sri Lanka. Six of the FOCs, PFOS (perfluorooctanesulfonate), PFHS (perfluorohexanesulfonate), PFUnA (perfluoroundecanoic acid), PFDA (perfluorodecanoic acid), PFNA (perfluorononanoic acid) and PFOA (perfluorooctanoic acid), were detected in all of the sera samples. Measurable quantities of two main perfluorosulfonates, PFOS and PFHS, were found in all seminal plasma samples. The detection frequency of the predominant perfluoroalkylcarboxylate, PFOA, in seminal plasma was >70%. Accumulation of PFOS in sera was significantly positively correlated with PFOA, PFHS and PFNA. Positive linear regressions were also found between PFNA and PFUnA and PFNA and PFDA suggesting that these compounds may have a similar origin of exposure and accumulation. Significantly positive associations were observed for partitioning of both PFOS and PFNA between sera and seminal plasma. The accumulation of FOCs was not significantly different in sera from Colombo (urban population) and Talawakele (rural conventional tea workers). However, the Haldummulla population (rural organic tea workers) had relatively lower exposure to FOCs compared to the other two groups, urban and rural conventional tea workers. Concentrations of FOCs in Sri Lanka were similar to those reported for industrialized countries suggesting that human exposure to such chemicals is widespread even in developing countries. The novel finding of FOCs in human seminal plasma implies that further studies are needed to determine whether long-term exposure in humans can result in reproductive impairments.     

Trace elements and butyltins in a Dall's porpoise (Phocoenoides dalli) from the Sanriku coast of Japan

Concentrations and body burdens of 14 trace elements (Hg, Cr, Mn, Co, Cu, Zn, Sr, Ag, Cd, V, Se, Pb, Mo, and Fe) and butyltins (BTs) (tributyltin TBT, dibutyltin DBT, and monobutyltin MBT) were determined in various tissues of a mature male Dall's porpoise (Phocoenoides dalli) collected off the Sanriku coast of Japan. Selective accumulation in this porpoise was observed for Hg, Mn, Cu, Ag, Mo, Fe, and total BTs (TBT, DBT, and MBT) in the liver, Cd in the kidney, Zn, Sr, V, Pb, and Co in the bone, and Se in the skin. In contrast, Cr concentrations in all tissues were similar. This distribution pattern in this mature porpoise was in general agreement with the accumulation characteristics of trace elements and butyltins reported for other marine mammals. The whole body of the porpoise contained approximately 62 g Fe, 8.8 g Zn, 4.0 g Sr, 0.6g Se, 0.41 g Cu, 0.19 g Hg, 0.17 g Cd, 0.16 g Mn, 0.05 g Cr, 0.009 g Ag, 0.008 g Mo, 0.005 g Pb, 0.004 g Co, and 0.7 mg of BTs (0.4 mg TBT, 0.2 mg DBT, and 0.1 mg MBT). Metabolism of TBT to its breakdown products of this porpoise seems to be limited, since TBT still accounted for about half of the total burden of BTs. As in the cases of Hg, Mn, Cu, Se, and Fe, the muscle was the most important reservoir (43%) for the whole body burden of total BTs, 80% of which was TBT, and thus muscle played a crucial role in the higher body composition of TBT in this Dall's porpoise.     

Degradation of microcystins using immobilized microorganism isolated in an eutrophic lake

The final purpose of our series of studies is to establish a biological removal method of cyanobacteria and their toxic products using immobilized microorganisms that can lyse cyanobacteria and decompose microcystins. To establish the biological removal method in non-point areas and water purification plants, as the first step, we explored bacteria active against the cyanobacterial hepatotoxin microcystin in the present study. Eleven active bacteria were isolated from samples taken from Lakes Tsukui and Sagami, Japan. Among 3 strains (B-9 to B-11) with degradative activity, strain B-9 exhibited the strongest activity. The 16S rDNA sequence of the strain B-9 showed the highest similarity to that of Sphingomonas sp. Y2 (AB084247, 99% similarity). Microcystins-RR and -LR were completely degraded by strain B-9 (SC16) within 1d, which led to an immobilized microorganism with a polyester resin. The degradation of microcystin-RR in a bioreactor using the immobilized strain B-9 was observed and microcystin-RR (> 90%) was completely degraded after 24 h. Microcystin-RR was added to the lake water at regular intervals and the degradation after 24 h was observed in the bioreactor over a 72-d period. An over 80% removal efficiency continued for 2 months, showing that the life of the immobilized B-9 in terms of activity was at least 2 months under the optimized conditions. From these results, this immobilized B-9 is feasible for the practical treatment of microcystins in non-point areas and water purification plants.     

Reproductive transfer of organochlorines in viviparous surfperch, Ditrema temmincki

To discuss the maternal-fetal transfer of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in viviparous fish, the whole-body burdens of POPs were determined in gravid surfperches from Otsuchi Bay, Japan, and in their fetuses. The concentrations were 2.75-15.5 times higher in the maternal tissue. To compare the characteristics of the maternal-fetal transfer between species with different gestation systems, reports on the striped dolphin and long-finned pilot whales were studied. The transfer rates of POPs in surfperches were 0.6-6.0%, while in marine mammals they were 3.0-9.4%. The difference in transfer rates may derive from the difference in their reproductive systems. On the other hand, as in marine mammals, selective transfer of POPs was seen in surfperches. The transfer rates were higher in less hydrophobic compounds such as dieldrin, and lower in more hydrophobic compounds such as DDTs. A new transfer factor is also discussed which instantly indicates the difference in the concentrations between mother and fetus.