Mark-recapture estimators for dual frame population size of prominent nesting structures: the effect of uncertain detection probability

The combined mark-recapture and line transect sampling methodology proposed by Alpizar-Jara and Pollock [Journal of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 3(4), 311–327, 1996; In Marine Mammal Survey and Assessment Methods Symposium. G.W. Garner, S.C. Amstrup, J.L. Laake, B.F.J. Manly, L.L. McDonald, and D.C. Robertson (Eds.), A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam, Netherlands, pp. 99–114, 1999] is used to illustrate the estimation of population size for populations with prominent nesting structures (i.e., bald eagle nests). In the context of a bald eagle population, the number of nests in a list frame corresponds to a pre-marked sample of nests, and an area frame corresponds to a set of transect strips that could be regularly monitored. Unlike previous methods based on dual frame methodology using the screening estimator [Haines and Pollock (Journal of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 5, 245–256, 1998a; Survey Methodology, 24(1), 79–88, 1998b)], we no longer need to assume that the area frame is complete (i.e., all the nests in the sampled sites do not need to be seen). One may use line transect sampling to estimate the probability of detection in a sampled area. Combining information from list and area frames provides more efficient estimators than those obtained by using data from only one frame. We derive an estimator for detection probability and generalize the screening estimator. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of the Chapman modification of the Lincoln–Petersen estimator to the screening estimator. Simulation results show that although the Chapman estimator is generally less precise than the screening estimator, the latter can be severely biased in presence of uncertain detection. The screening estimator outperforms the Chapman estimator in terms of mean squared error when detection probability is near 1 wheareas the Chapman estimator outperforms the screening estimator when detection probability is lower than a certain threshold value depending on particular scenarios.     

Concentrations of inorganic elements in bottled waters on the Swedish market

This study presents the concentrations of about 50 metals and ions in 33 different brands of bottled waters on the Swedish market. Ten of the brands showed calcium (Ca) concentrations ≤10 mg L⁻¹ and magnesium (Mg) levels <3 mg L⁻¹, implying very soft waters. Three of these waters had in addition low concentrations of sodium (Na; <7 mg L⁻¹), potassium (K; <3 mg L⁻¹) and bicarbonate (HCO₃ ≤31 mg L⁻¹). These brands were collected from barren districts. Nine of the brands were collected from limestone regions. They showed increased Ca-levels exceeding 50 mg L⁻¹ with a maximum of 289 mg L⁻¹. Corresponding Mg-levels were also raised in two brands exceeding 90 mg L⁻¹. Two soft and carbonated waters were supplemented with Na₂CO₃ and NaCl, resulting in high concentrations of Na (644 and 648 mg L⁻¹) and chloride (Cl; 204 and 219 mg L⁻¹). Such waters may make a substantial contribution to the daily intake of NaCl in high water consumers. The storage of carbonated drinking water in aluminum (Al) cans increased the Al-concentration to about 70 μg L⁻¹. Conclusion As there was a large variation in the material as regards concentrations of macro-elements such as Ca, Mg, Na, K and Cl. Supplementation with salts, e.g., Na₂CO₃, K₂ CO₃ and NaCl, can lead to increased concentrations of Na, K and Cl, as well as decreased ratios of Ca/Na and larger ratios of Na/K. Water with high concentrations of e.g., Ca and Mg, may make a substantial contribution to the daily intake of these elements in high water consumers. Al cans are less suited for storage of carbonated waters, as the lowered pH-values may dissolve Al. The levels of potentially toxic metals in the studied brands were generally low.     

Neighborhood Level Spatial Analysis of the Relationship Between Alcohol Outlet Density and Criminal Violence

Misuse of alcohol is a significant public health problem, potentially resulting in unintentional injuries, motor vehicle crashes, drownings, and, perhaps of greatest concern, serious acts of violence, including assaults, rapes, suicides, and homicides. Although previous research establishes a link between alcohol consumption increased levels of violence, studies relating the density of alcohol outlets (e.g., restaurants, bars, liquor stores) and the likelihood of violent crime have been less common. In this paper we test for such a relationship at the small area level, using data from 79 neighborhoods in the city of Minneapolis, Minnesota. We adopt a fully Bayesian point of view using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) computational methods as available in the popular and freely available WinBUGS language. Our models control for important covariates (e.g., neighborhood racial heterogeneity, age heterogeneity) and also account for spatial association in unexplained variability using conditionally autoregressive (CAR) random effects. Our results indicate a significant positive relationship between alcohol outlet density and violent crime, while also permitting easy mapping of neighborhood-level predicted and residual values, the former useful for intervention in the most at-risk neighborhoods and the latter potentially useful in identifying covariates still missing from the fixed effects portion of the model.     

Arsenic in groundwaters of the Lower Mekong

Increasing incidence and awareness of arsenic in many alluvial aquifers of South-east Asia has raised concern over possible arsenic in the Lower Mekong Basin. Here, we have undertaken new research and reviewed many previous small-scale studies to provide a comprehensive overview of the status of arsenic in aquifers of Cambodia and the Cuu Long Delta of Vietnam. In general natural arsenic originates from the Upper Mekong basin, rather than from the local geology, and is widespread in soils at typical concentrations of between 8 and 16 ppm; (dry weight). Industrial and agricultural arsenic is localised and relatively unimportant compared to the natural alluvial arsenic. Aquifers most typically contain groundwaters of no more than 10 μg L⁻¹, although scattered anomalous areas of 10 to 30 μg L⁻¹ are also quite common. The most serious, but possibly ephemeral arsenic anomalies, of up to 600 μg L⁻¹, are associated with iron and organic-rich flood-plain sediments subject to very large flood-related fluctuations in water level, resulting in transient arsenopyrite dissolution under oxidizing conditions. In general, however, high-arsenic groundwaters result from the competing interaction between sorption and dissolution processes, in which arsenic is only released under reducing and slightly alkaline conditions. High arsenic groundwaters are found both in shallow water-tables, and in deeper aquifers of between 100 and 120 m depth. There is no evidence of widespread arsenicosis, but there are serious localised health-hazards, and some risk of low-level arsenic ingestion through indirect pathways, such as through contaminated rice and aquaculture. An almost ubiquitous presence of arsenic in soils, together with the likelihood of greatly increased groundwater extraction in the future, will require continuing caution in water resources development throughout the region.     

Migratory and reproductive movements of male leatherback turtles (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Dermochelys coriacea</Emphasis>)

The biology of the endangered leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) at sea is poorly understood. As research has been almost exclusively limited to studies of nesting females, the movements of male turtles and the timing and location of mating activity have remained unknown. We report on the first deployments of satellite tags on male leatherbacks. Male migration to and residency in waters adjacent low-latitude nesting beaches in the western Atlantic suggest that this is where mating occurs, and return migration to these areas reveals male fidelity for breeding sites. Rate of travel decreased markedly after arriving in coastal breeding areas, where males remained for up to 96 days before assuming northward migrations. The initiation of these northward migrations coincided with peak nesting activity in adjacent nesting colonies. Data from satellite-linked time-depth recorders attached to two males revealed diel dive patterns in breeding areas and marked differences in diving behaviour between migratory and breeding periods in one turtle. When male turtles were in waters adjacent nesting colonies, their movements differed from those reported for nesting females, with females ranging farther from shore. Our results suggest that male leatherbacks may be vulnerable to entanglement in coastal fishing gear in waters adjacent nesting beaches.Communicated by R.J. Thompson, St. Johns     

An updated scheme of imposex for<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Cantharus cecillei</Emphasis> (Gastropoda: Buccinidae) and a new mechanism leading to the sterilization of imposex-affected females

The morphological expressions of imposex in gastropods have been classified into seven stages (S₀–S₆) with three types (a, b and c). This typical imposex scheme, however, fails to cover some new findings such as specimens with the proximal vas deferens section passing by the vaginal opening (VDSP) and aborted egg capsules. In the present study, Cantharus cecillei was sampled from the coastal waters of China from May to November in 2003. This species showed all the morphological expressions in the typical imposex scheme with the exception of S_1b and S_2b. In addition, specimens with VDSP occurred in all stages other than stage 4, and were documented for the first time with scanning electron micrographs or in histological sections. Besides VDSP, which was observed exteriorly, excrescent tissue, e.g. the vas deferens, also originated in the ventral channel or the inner wall of the pallial oviduct was extruded. Based on these new findings, the typical imposex scheme was modified to obtain one valid for C. cecillei. Types a*, b* and c* were added as new types corresponding to types a, b and c, respectively. S_4* was also rearranged to correspond to S₄; S_4*, thus, no longer represented the end of imposex development. The updated scheme was not only valid for describing diverse expressions of imposex development in C. cecillei and Nassarius reticulatus, but could also be generalized to define various forms of VDSP in other species. Histological observation indicated that egg capsules would be blocked by the tissues of the vas deferens section or the extrusion of the pallial oviduct wall. This new mechanism, leading to the sterilization of imposex-affected females, was first conclusively revealed and described in the present scheme.Communicated by T. Ikeda, Hakodate     

Recycling plant wax constituents for chemical defense: hemi-biosynthesis of triterpene saponins from β-amyrin in a leaf beetle

Several species of Doryphorina leaf beetles from Central- and South America produce oleanane triterpene glycosides in their defensive glands. The presence of pentacyclic triterpenes in insects is intriguing since they lack the key enzymes necessary to synthesize these compounds. Since -amyrin is a common constituent of leaf waxes, we hypothesized that these leaf beetles use this compound as a precursor to their oleanane glycosides. To test this hypothesis we first confirmed the presence of -amyrin in Ipomoea batatas, the food plant of Platyphora kollari. Next, adults of P. kollari were fed for 10 days with I. batatas leaf disks painted with a solution of [2,2,3-²H₃]-amyrin ([2,2,3-²H₃]-1). The secretion from their defensive glands was collected and analyzed by HPLC-ESIMS. The results demonstrated that the secretion of beetles fed with an amount of [2,2,3-²H₃]-amyrin corresponding to the quantity of unlabeled (natural) -amyrin present in the leaf disks contained on average 5.1% of [2,2,3-²H₃]-3-O--d-glucopyranosyl-(1-->4)--d-glucuronopyranosyl-hederagenin ([2,2,3-²H₃]-2), whereas the secretions of beetles fed with 10 times this amount of [2,2,3-²H₃]-amyrin contained on average 23.9% of [2,2,3-²H₃]-2. In both series of experiments, the percentage of labeled versus unlabeled triterpene glycoside in the secretion was positively correlated with the amount of deuterated -amyrin ingested. These results demonstrate for the first time that some leaf beetles are able to metabolize a widespread triterpenic constituent of leaf wax into more complex glycosides that are stored in their defensive glands.     

A modular approach to Integrated Assessment modeling

In this paper, we present a new approach to model coupling that probably forms the methodological basis of a new generation of Integrated Assessment models. This approach respects the knowledge and expertise that is embodied in existing models and encourages their gradual evolution. Modularity is the guiding principle. Our approach is distinguished by the way modules are coupled which is based on an interplay of a job control module, a numerical coupling module, and a couple of stand-alone functional modules. The numerical coupling module - the core component - serves to treat the feedbacks between the functional modules. A first implemented example that couples an economic and a climate module by means of a two-phase meta-optimization is presented here. The algorithm and mathematical structure behind are discussed as well as important features such as convergence behavior and reliability.     

Development and Adoption of a Simple Nonpoint Source Pollution Model for Port Phillip Bay,Australia

New computing tools and approaches allow tailored development of software to meet the needs of environmental managers. The processes required for such tailoring fit well with adaptive management concepts where, as knowledge and system understanding develop among managers, the software can be developed or replaced to match. This paper reports on development and adoption of a simple nonpoint source pollution modeling tool, including technical aspects of data support for modeling and social aspects of software design. The software, named FILTER, used a unit load model to generate expected pollutant loads from subcatchments of Port Phillip Bay, Australia. Monitoring data were used for calibration to modify the delivery of generated pollutants to receiving waters. Spatial, tabular, and charting software components were used to provide alternative forms of output visualization. FILTER was developed using a process that resulted in manager-stakeholders taking responsibility for setting of model parameter values and operation of the user interface, thereby encouraging uptake. The inclusive development process, tailoring of the software to manager needs and styles of usage, and matching of model complexity to data and knowledge, resulted in a successful application that has become the current agreed system representation among disparate stakeholder organizations.