Mathematical equivalence of geometric mean fitness with probabilistic optimization under environmental uncertainty

Natural selection can be considered as optimising fitness. Because ‘mean’ fitness is maximized with respect to the genotypes of carriers, traditional theory can be viewed as a statistical theory of natural selection. Probabilistic optimisation is a way to incorporate such uncertainty into optimality analyses of natural selection, where environmental uncertainty is expressed as a probability distribution. Its canonical form is a weighted average of fitness with respect to a given probabilistic distribution. This concept should be applicable to three different levels of uncertainty: (1) behavioural variations of an individual, (2) individual variations within a generation, and (3) temporal change over generations (geometric mean fitness). The former two levels are straightforward with many empirical evidences, but the last category, the geometric mean fitness, has not well understood. Here we studied the geometric mean fitness by taking its logarithm, where the log growth rates become the fitness value. By further transforming the log growth rates, the fitness of log growth rates becomes its linear function. Therefore, a simple average of these distributions becomes the fitness measure across generations and consideration of variance discount or the entire probability distributions becomes unnecessary. We discuss some characteristic features of probabilistic optimization in general. Our view is considered a probabilistic view of natural selection, in contrast with the traditional statistical view of natural selection.     

Cesium-137 and mercury contamination in lake sediments.

The contribution of fluvial discharge and global fallout of 137Cs and mercury to sedimentation fluxes in Lake Shinji and Lake Nakaumi, Japan, was studied. The fluvial flux through soil erosion accounted for 11 to 27% of accumulated 137Cs in the sediments in the 1950's and 1960's, which were the periods of the most extensive atmospheric input, and for 90 to 100% in the 1990's. The vertical profiles of mercury concentrations in the lake sediments studied showed a maximum between 1959 and 1963, which was originated mostly from the extensive use of mercury-agrochemicals in paddyfields of the watershed in the past. These findings are representative examples of long-term contamination of lake sediments caused by the contaminated ground soil erosion.     

Screening of endophytic bacteria against fungal plant pathogens

Bacterial endophytes were found from 6 plant leaves among 35 plant leaves screened. Two of the isolated bacteria showed antagonistic activity against fungal plant pathogens. An isolate named KL1 showed the clear inihibition against plant pathogens, Fusarium oxysporum and Rhizoctonia solani, on PDA as well as TSA plate. Supernatant of the bacterial culture also showed the clear inhibition against the fungal growth on the plate and the antibiotic substance was identified as iturin A by HPLC analysis. KL1 was identified as Bacillus sp. from the 16S rRNA gene analysis. Very thin hyphae of R. solani was miccroscopically observed when the fungus was co-cultivated with KL1.     

A quantitative risk assessment of waterborne infectious disease in the inundation area of a tropical monsoon region

Flooding and inundation are annual events that occur during the rainy season in Cambodia, and inundation has a strong relationship with human health. This study simulated the coliform bacteria distribution using a hydraulic model and estimated the impact of inundation on public health using a dose–response model. The model parameters were calibrated using field survey data from Cambodia and obtained good agreement with the coliform group count distribution. The results suggest that the impact of inundation on human health is most noticeable in residential areas. The annual average risk of infection during medium-sized flood events is 0.21. The risk due to groundwater use ranges from 0.12 to 0.17 in inundation areas and reaches as high as 0.23 outside the inundation areas. The risk attributed to groundwater use is therefore higher than that for surface water use (0.02–0.06), except in densely populated areas at the city center. There is a high risk for infection with waterborne disease in residential areas, and the annual average risk during small flood events is 0.94. An assessment of possible countermeasures to reduce the risk shows that the control of inundation may bring more risk to public health in Cambodia. Shallower inundation water (<0.3 m) leads to a higher risk of infection, but if the depth is greater than 2 m, the risk is low in residential areas. The simulated results explain the spatial distributions of infection risk,, which are vitally important for determining the highest priority places with relatively high risk and will be helpful for decision makers when considering the implementation of countermeasures.     

Toxicity and metabolism of copper pyrithione and its degradation product, 2,2'-dipyridyldisulfide in a marine polychaete

We conducted acute toxicity tests and sediment toxicity tests for copper pyrithione (CuPT) and a metal pyrithione degradation product, 2,2′-dipyridyldisulfide [(PS)₂], using a marine polychaete Perinereis nuntia. The acute toxicity tests yielded 14-d LC₅₀ concentrations for CuPT and (PS)₂ of 0.06 mg L⁻¹ and 7.9 mg L⁻¹, respectively. Sediment toxicity tests resulted in 14-d LC₅₀ concentrations for CuPT and (PS)₂ of 1.1 mg kg⁻¹ dry wt. and 14 mg kg⁻¹ dry wt., respectively. In addition to mortality, sediment avoidance behavior and decreases in animal growth rate were observed; growth rate was the most susceptible endpoint in the sediment toxicity tests of both toxicants. Thus, we propose lowest observed effect concentrations of 0.3 mg kg⁻¹ dry wt. and 0.2 mg kg⁻¹ dry wt. for CuPT and (PS)₂, respectively, and no observed effect concentrations of 0.1 mg kg⁻¹ dry wt. for both CuPT and (PS)₂. The difference in the toxicity values between CuPT and (PS)₂ observed in the acute toxicity test was greater than the difference in these values in the sediment toxicity test, and we attribute this to (PS)₂ being more hydrophilic than CuPT. In addition to the toxicity tests, we analyzed conjugation activity of several polychaete enzymes to the toxicants and marked activity of palmitoyl coenzyme-A:biocides acyltransferase and UDP-glucuronosyl transferase was observed.     

Specific accumulation of organochlorines in human breast milk from Indonesia: levels, distribution, accumulation kinetics and infant health risk

This study determined concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine compound (OC) pesticides in the milk samples of women from the general population in four locations of Indonesia. The most prevalent residues of OCs were DDTs, PCBs and hexachlorocyclohexane isomers (HCHs), whereas other OCs such as chlordane compounds (CHLs), tris(4-chlorophenyl)methane and hexachlorobenzene were lower. The levels of OCs varied between locations and individuals, with DDTs higher in suburban and rural areas than urban localities, may be due to the differences in food habits and sources between the individuals and locations. Data from Purwakarta site indicated continuing DDT exposure, which may confirm recent usage of DDT in Indonesia. A positive correlation was observed between concentration of OCs in human milk and age of mothers, primiparas women having higher OCs than multiparas, suggesting these parameters play an important role influencing the OC burdens in lactating women. Some individuals accumulated DDTs and HCHs in breast milk close to or even higher than the TDI (tolerable daily intake) guidelines proposed by Health Canada.     

Low-carbon transitions in world regions: comparison of technological mitigation potential and costs in 2020 and 2030 through bottom-up analyses

This study focuses on low-carbon transitions in the mid-term and analyzes mitigation potentials of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2020 and 2030 in a comparison based on bottom-up-type models. The study provides in-depth analyses of technological mitigation potentials and costs by sector and analyzes marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves from 0 to 200 US $/tCO₂ eq in major countries. An advantage of this study is that the technological feasibility of reducing GHG emissions is identified explicitly through looking at distinct technological options. However, the results of MAC curves using the bottom-up approach vary widely according to region and model due to the various differing assumptions. Thus, this study focuses on some comparable variables in order to analyze the differences between MAC curves. For example, reduction ratios relative to 2005 in Annex I range from 9 % to 31 % and 17 % to 34 % at 50 US $/tCO₂ eq in major countries. An advantage of this study is that the technological feasibility of reducing GHG emissions is identified explicitly through looking at distinct technological options. However, the results of MAC curves using the bottom-up approach vary widely according to region and model due to the various differing assumptions. Thus, this study focuses on some comparable variables in order to analyze the differences between MAC curves. For example, reduction ratios relative to 2005 in Annex I range from 9 % to 31 % and 17 % to 34 % at 50 US /tCO₂ eq in 2020 and 2030, respectively. In China and India, results of GHG emissions relative to 2005 vary very widely due to the difference in baseline emissions as well as the diffusion rate of mitigation technologies. Future portfolios of advanced technologies and energy resources, especially nuclear and renewable energies, are the most prominent reasons for the difference in MAC curves. Transitions toward a low-carbon society are not in line with current trends, and will require drastic GHG reductions, hence it is important to discuss how to overcome various existing barriers such as energy security constraints and technological restrictions.     

Technological feasibility and costs of achieving a 50 % reduction of global GHG emissions by 2050: mid- and long-term perspectives

In this article we examine the technological feasibility of the global target of reducing GHG emissions to 50 % of the 1990 level by the year 2050. We also perform a detailed analysis of the contribution of low-carbon technologies to GHG emission reduction over mid- and long-term timeframes, and evaluate the required technological cost. For the analysis we use AIM/Enduse[Global], a techno-economic model for climate change mitigation policy assessment. The results show that a 50 % GHG emission reduction target is technically achievable. Yet achieving the target will require substantial emission mitigation efforts. The GHG emission reduction rate from the reference scenario stands at 23 % in 2020 and 73 % in 2050. The marginal abatement cost to achieve these emission reductions reaches 150/tCO < sub > 2 < /sub > -eq in 2020 and150/tCO₂-eq in 2020 and 600/tCO₂-eq in 2050. Renewable energy, fuel switching, and efficiency improvement in power generation account for 45 % of the total GHG emission reduction in 2020. Non-energy sectors, namely, fugitive emission, waste management, agriculture, and F-gases, account for 25 % of the total GHG emission reduction in 2020. CCS, solar power generation, wind power generation, biomass power generation, and biofuel together account for 64 % of the total GHG emission reduction in 2050. Additional investment in GHG abatement technologies for achieving the target reaches US6.0 trillion by 2020 and US 6.0 trillion by 2020 and US 73 trillion by 2050. This corresponds to 0.7 and 1.8 % of the world GDP, respectively, in the same periods. Non-Annex I regions account for 55 % of the total additional investment by 2050. In a sectoral breakdown, the power generation and transport sectors account for 56 and 30 % of the total additional investment by 2050, respectively.     

Economic analysis of biogas and compost projects in a palm oil mill with clean development mechanism in Malaysia

This article is a case study to compare the economic viabilities of biogas generation and compost projects in a palm oil mill in Malaysia with and without clean development mechanism (CDM). Biogas is captured from anaerobic ponds or digester tanks treating palm oil mill effluent (POME) and converted to green renewable electricity for grid connection, while compost is produced from the shredded empty fruit bunch and raw untreated POME. The both technologies were compared by considering the changes of the materials flow and energy balances. A palm oil mill with a capacity of 54?t fresh fruit bunch per hour has the potential to produce either 6.9?GWh of electricity from biogas or fertilizer equivalent to 488?t of nitrogen, 76?t of phosphorus and 1,065?t of potassium per year. The economic analysis for 10?years project term analysis indicated that CDM gave a significant impact and ensured economic viability for both projects with 25?% of internal rate of return (IRR), RM 12.39 million of net present value (NPV) and 3.5?years of payback period (PBP) for biogas project, whereas 31?% of IRR, RM 10.87 million of NPV and 2.9?years of PBP for compost project, respectively. In addition, sensitivity analysis indicated that the profitability of both projects will vary depending on the economic situation, such as electricity price which is based on the government policy, whereas compost price that depend on fertilizer market price with 43?% NPV change in 20?% range of fertilizer value.     

Persistent organic pollutants in breast milk of mothers residing around an open dumping site in Kolkata,India: Specific dioxin-like PCB levels and fish as a potential source

Concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) such as polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides were measured in human breast milk collected from mothers residing near an open dumping site and a reference site in Kolkata, India during 2004–2005. POPs were detected in all the human milk samples analyzed, suggesting that residents of Kolkata are widely exposed to these contaminants. Concentrations of dioxin-like PCBs in the samples from the dumping site were significantly higher than in the reference site samples, whereas no such difference was found for PCDDs and PCDFs. In addition, significantly higher concentrations of total PCBs were also observed in the samples from the dumping site than the reference site. Interestingly, concentrations of total and dioxin-like PCBs in the breast milk of mothers from the dumping site significantly increased with the number of years of residence near the dumping site. These results indicate that significant pollution sources of PCBs are present in the dumping site of Kolkata and the residents living around are exposed to relatively higher levels of PCBs. When the residue levels of dioxins and related compounds in fish collected from ponds near the Kolkata dumping site and the reference site were measured, it was found that dioxin-like PCB and TEQ levels in fish from the dumping site were notably higher than those from the reference site. This result indicates that fish is a potential source of PCBs for residents living near the Kolkata dumping site.