Climate and air quality-driven scenarios of ozone and aerosol precursor abatement

In addition to causing domestic and regional environmental effects, many air pollutants contribute to radiative forcing (RF) of the climate system. However, climate effects are not considered when cost-effective abatement targets for these pollutants are established, nor are they included in current international climate agreements. We construct air pollution abatement scenarios in 2030 which target cost-effective reductions in RF in the EU, USA, and China and compare these to abatement scenarios which instead target regional ozone effects and particulate matter concentrations. Our analysis covers emissions of PM (fine, black carbon and organic carbon), SO₂, NO_x, CH₄, VOCs, and CO. We find that the effect synergies are strong for PM/BC, VOC, CO and CH₄. While an air quality strategy targeted at reducing ozone will also reduce RF, this will not be the case for a strategy targeting particulate matter. Abatement in China dominates RF reduction, but there are cheap abatement options also available in the EU and USA. The justification for international cooperation on air quality issues is underlined when the co-benefits of reduced RF are considered. Some species, most importantly SO₂, contribute a negative forcing on climate. We suggest that given current knowledge, NO_x and SO₂ should be ignored in RF-targeted abatement policies.     

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Land transport

Emissions from land transport, and from road transport in particular, have significant impacts on the atmosphere and on climate change. This assessment gives an overview of past, present and future emissions from land transport, of their impacts on the atmospheric composition and air quality, on human health and climate change and on options for mitigation.In the past vehicle exhaust emission control has successfully reduced emissions of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds and particulate matter. This contributed to improved air quality and reduced health impacts in industrialised countries. In developing countries however, pollutant emissions have been growing strongly, adversely affecting many populations. In addition, ozone and particulate matter change the radiative balance and hence contribute to global warming on shorter time scales. Latest knowledge on the magnitude of land transport's impact on global warming is reviewed here.In the future, road transport's emissions of these pollutants are expected to stagnate and then decrease globally. This will then help to improve the air quality notably in developing countries. On the contrary, emissions of carbon dioxide and of halocarbons from mobile air conditioners have been globally increasing and are further expected to grow. Consequently, road transport's impact on climate is gaining in importance. The expected efficiency improvements of vehicles and the introduction of biofuels will not be sufficient to offset the expected strong growth in both, passenger and freight transportation. Technical measures could offer a significant reduction potential, but strong interventions would be needed as markets do not initiate the necessary changes. Further reductions would need a resolute expansion of low-carbon fuels, a tripling of vehicle fuel efficiency and a stagnation in absolute transport volumes. Land transport will remain a key sector in climate change mitigation during the next decades.     

Evaluation of measures of impairment in real and simulated driving: Results from a randomized,placebo-controlled study

Objective: Standard deviation of lateral position (SDLP) is often the primary outcome in experimental studies on impaired driving. However, other measures may be easier and more practical to obtain and reflect a broader range of driving-related behaviors. We wanted to assess the validity and sensitivity of a range of measures in a driving simulator as well as during real driving and compare these to SDLP.

Methods: Twenty healthy male volunteers undertook 6 driving trials each, 3 in a regular car on a closed track resembling rural road conditions and 3 in a simulator with an identical driving scenario. Ethanol was used as impairing substance due to its well-characterized effects on driving. The subjects were tested sober and at blood alcohol concentrations (BAC) of approximately 0.5 and 0.9 g/L. We explored dose–response relationships between BAC and a range of driving-related measures, as well as their BAC-dependent effect sizes.

Results: In simulator driving, ethanol intake increased steering wheel reversal frequency, steering wheel movement measures, average speed, standard deviation of speed, and pedal use frequency. At the test track, only steering wheel movement and standard deviation of speed were significantly correlated to BAC. Likewise, reaction to unexpected incidents and observance of red traffic lights were adversely affected by ethanol in the simulator but not at the test track. Whereas SDLP showed a relatively large effect size that was similar in simulated and real driving, all other measures demonstrated smaller effect sizes, with less pronounced BAC effects on the test track than in the simulator.

Conclusions: The results suggest that the driving-related measures explored in this study are less sensitive to alcohol-mediated driving impairment than SDLP, especially during real (test track) driving. The discrepancy in effect sizes between simulated and real driving may imply low external validity of these measures in simulator studies.     

A risk perspective suitable for resilience engineering

In recent years, resilience engineering has been given considerable attention among safety researchers and analysts. The area represents a new way of thinking about safety. Whereas conventional risk management approaches are based on hindsight knowledge, failure reporting and risk assessments calculating historical data-based probabilities, resilience engineering looks for ways to enhance the ability of organisations to be resilient in the sense that they recognise, adapt to and absorb variations, changes, disturbances, disruptions and surprises. The implications of this shift in thinking are many. We focus in this paper on the understanding of the risk concept and how risk can be assessed and treated. The traditional ways of looking at risk are not suitable for use in resilience engineering, but other risk perspectives exist. A main purpose of this paper is to draw attention to such perspectives, in particular one category of perspectives where probability is replaced by uncertainty in the definition of risk. We argue that the basic ideas of resilience engineering can be supported by such risk perspectives.     

Variation in sperm morphometry and sperm competition among barn swallow (Hirundo rustica) populations

Spermatozoa vary greatly in size and shape among species across the animal kingdom. Postcopulatory sexual selection is thought to be the major evolutionary force driving this diversity. In contrast, less is known about how sperm size varies among populations of the same species. Here, we investigate geographic variation in sperm size in barn swallows Hirundo rustica, a socially monogamous passerine with a wide Holarctic breeding distribution. We included samples from seven populations and three subspecies: five populations of ssp. rustica in Europe (Czech, Italy, Norway, Spain, and Ukraine), one population of ssp. transitiva in Israel, and one population of ssp. erythrogaster in Canada. All sperm traits (head length, midpiece length, tail length, and total length) varied significantly among populations. The variation among the European rustica populations was much lower than the differences among subspecies, indicating that sperm traits reflect phylogenetic distance. We also performed a test of the relationship between the coefficient of between-male variation in total sperm length and extrapair paternity levels across different populations within a species. Recent studies have found a strong negative relationship between sperm size variation and extrapair paternity among species. Here, we show a similar negative relationship among six barn swallow populations, which suggests that the variance in male sperm length in a population is shaped by the strength of stabilizing postcopulatory sexual selection.     

The Precautionary Principle: Scientific Uncertainty and Omitted Research in the Context of GMO Use and Release

Commercialization of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) have sparked profound controversies concerning adequate approaches to risk regulation. Scientific uncertainty and ambiguity, omitted research areas, and lack of basic knowledge crucial to risk assessmentshave become apparent. The objective of this article is to discuss the policy and practical implementation of the Precautionary Principle. A major conclusion is that the void in scientific understanding concerning risks posed by secondary effects and the complexity ofcause-effect relations warrant further research. Initiatives to approach the acceptance or rejection of a number of risk-associated hypotheses is badly needed. Further, since scientific advice plays a key role in GMOregulations, scientists have a responsibility to address and communicate uncertainty to policy makers and the public. Hence, the acceptance of uncertainty is not only a scientific issue, but is related to public policy and involves an ethical dimension.     

Invasives, Introductions and Acidification: The Dynamics of a Stressed River Fish Community

We describe the development of the fish community in the acidified and limed river Litleåna in southern Norway, and describe how chemical restoration, compensatory introductions of exotics, and accidental invasion of exotics interact to influence the population of the naturally occurring brown trout (Salmo trutta). The river Litleåna is a tributary to the river Kvina in Vest-Agder County, southern Norway. During the years 1996–2004, annual mean pH was 4.9–5.0 and 6.1–6.4 above and below the liming facility, which was installed in 1994. Originally, brown trout was the only fish species in the river, but brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) have been intentionally introduced, whereas European minnow (Phoxinus phoxinus) was introduced by accident. Fish densities were recorded by means of electrofishing annually over the ten year period 1995–2004. Although close to extinction before liming was initiated, brown trout fry densities increased from 1995 to 1999, with subsequent varying densities. There has been a simultaneous major increase in the occurrence and density of European minnow since 1997. Our results show that both brown trout and European minnow increase after liming. Minnow densities are negatively affected by low pH episodes in the river. The growth rates of brown trout fry are negatively correlated to minnow densities, indicating competition between the species. Brook trout densities have decreased since liming started, and during the brown trout recovery.