Potential effects of climate change on birds of the Northeast

We used three approaches to assess potential effects of climate change on birds of the Northeast. First, we created distribution and abundance models for common bird species using climate, elevation, and tree species variables and modeled how bird distributions might change as habitats shift. Second, we assessed potential effects on high-elevation birds, especially Bicknell’s thrush (Catharus bicknelli), that may be particularly vulnerable to climate change, by using statistical associations between climate, spruce-fir forest vegetation and bird survey data. Last, we complemented these projections with an assessment of how habitat quality of a migratory songbird, the black-throated blue warbler (Dendroica caerulescens) might be affected by climate change. Large changes in bird communities of the Northeast are likely to result from climate change, and these changes will be most dramatic under a scenario of continued high emissions. Indeed, high-elevation bird species may currently be at the threshold of critical change with as little as 1°C warming reducing suitable habitat by more than half. Species at mid elevations are likely to experience declines in habitat quality that could affect demography. Although not all species will be affected adversely, some of the Northeast’s iconic species, such as common loon and black-capped chickadee, and some of its most abundant species, including several neotropical migrants, are projected to decline significantly in abundance under all climate change scenarios. No clear mitigation strategies are apparent, as shifts in species’ abundances and ranges will occur across all habitat types and for species with widely differing ecologies.     

Modeling potential climate change impacts on the trees of the northeastern United States

We evaluated 134 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to several scenarios of climate change, and summarized those responses for nine northeastern United States. We modeled and mapped each species individually and show current and potential future distributions for two emission scenarios (A1fi [higher emission] and B1 [lower emission]) and three climate models: the Parallel Climate, the Hadley CM3, and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model. Climate change could have large impacts on suitable habitat for tree species in this region, especially under a high emissions trajectory. Results indicate that while species with potentially increasing areas of suitable habitat in the Northeastern US substantially outnumber those with decreasing areas of habitat, there are key species that show diminishing habitat area: balsam fir (Abies balsamea), paper birch (Betula papyrifera), red spruce (Picea rubens), bigtooth and quaking aspen (Populus grandidentata and P. tremuloides), and black cherry (Prunus serotina). From these results we identified the top 10 losers and gainers for each US state in the region by scenario and emissions trajectory. By combining individual species importance maps and developing assembly rules for various classes, we created maps of potential forest types for the Northeast showing a general loss of the spruce–fir zone with advancing oak–hickory type. Further data, maps, and analysis can be found at http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas.     

THE EFFECT OF ICE COVER ON VERTICAL TRANSFER IN STREAM CHANNELS1

ABSTRACT: The effect of ice cover on vertical transfer is examined based on the Reynolds' analogy and composite logarithmic velocity distributions. A finite difference scheme is used to predict concentration profiles in a two-dimensional channel. Comparisons made between the ice-covered condition and the ice-free condition show that considerable reduction in mixing capacity of the channel is caused by the ice cover.     

Thalassia testudinum productivity: A field comparison of measurement methods

A 6-day in situ comparison between the Wetzel inorganic ¹⁴C uptake and Zieman leaf-biomass techniques for measuring net primary production rates in the seagrass Thalassia testudinum was performed in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Measurement differences between the two methods were insignificant when the ¹⁴C uptake technique was corrected for sediment ¹⁴C uptake (13%), incubation-chamber light-energy absorption (14%) and differences in total light-energy which resulted from the experimental design (7.7%). These results reinforce previous observations that the ¹⁴C technique estimates net particulate-carbon production.     

Testing for a change in diet using fatty acid signatures

Determining whether the diet of predators has changed is an important ecological problem and appropriate methodology is needed in order to test for differences or changes in diet. It is known that the fatty acid (FA) signature in a predator’s adipose tissue predictably reflects the prey consumed and that, consequently, a change in the FA signatures can be largely attributed to changes in the predator’s diet composition. The use of FA signatures as a means of detecting change in diet presents some statistical challenges however, since the FA signatures are compositional and sample sizes relative to the dimension of a signature are often small due to biological constraints. Furthermore, the FA signatures often contain zeros precluding the direct use of traditional compositional data analysis methods. In this paper, we provide the methodology to carry out valid statistical tests for detecting changes in FA signatures and we illustrate both independent and paired cases using simulation studies and real life seabird and seal data. We conclude that the statistical challenges using FA data are overcome through the use of nonparametric tests applied to the multivariate setting with suitable test statistics capable of handling the zeros that are present in the data.     

Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change

Widespread extinction is a predicted ecological consequence of global warming. Extinction risk under climate change scenarios is a function of distribution breadth. Focusing on trees and birds of the eastern United States, we used joint climate and environment models to examine fit and climate change vulnerability as a function of distribution breadth. We found that extinction vulnerability increases with decreasing distribution size. We also found that model fit decreases with decreasing distribution size, resulting in high prediction uncertainty among narrowly distributed species. High prediction uncertainty creates a conservation dilemma in that excluding these species under-predicts extinction risk and favors mistaken inaction on global warming. By contrast, including narrow endemics results in over-predicting extinction risk and promotes mistaken inaction on behalf of individual species prematurely considered doomed to extinction.     

Minimax regret discounting

The paper considers an environmental policy decision in which the appropriate approach for discounting future costs and benefits is unknown. Uncertainty about the discount rate is formulated as a decision under Knightian uncertainty. To solve this, we employ minimax regret, a decision criterion that is much less conservative then the related criterion maximin—in particular, it can be shown to implement a “proportional response” in that it equally balances concern about the mistake of doing too little with that of doing too much. Despite the criterion's balanced nature, the minimax regret solution mimics a policy that maximizes the present discounted value of future net benefits with an effective (certainty-equivalent) discount rate that declines over time to the lowest possible rate. In addition to reinforcing Weitzman's (1998) original limiting result, the approach generates concrete policy advice when decision makers are unable to specify a prior over possible discount rates. We apply it to the Stern–Nordhaus discounting debate and find that the effective discount rate converges to the Stern rate in just under 200 years.