Emissions Scenarios Database and Review of Scenarios

This paper reviews and analyzes more than 400 scenarios of global and regional greenhouse gas emissions and their main driving forces - population, economy, energy intensity, and carbon intensity - drawn from an extensive literature survey and summarized in a database. This new and growing database is available online, which makes summary statistics on these scenarios widely available. The scenarios in the database were collected from almost 200 different literature sources and other scenario evaluation activities. The ultimate objective of the database is to include all relevant global and regional emissions scenarios. This paper shows how the database can be utilized for the analysis of greenhouse gas emissions ranges across the scenarios in the literature and for the analysis of their main driving forces. The scenarios in the database display a large range of future greenhouse gas emissions. Part of the range can be attributed to the different methods and models used to formulate the scenarios, which include simple spreadsheet models, macroeconomic models and systems-engineering models. However, most of the range is due to differences in the input assumptions for the scenarios, in particular of the main scenario driving forces. Special emphasis is given to an analysis of medians and ranges of scenario distributions and the distributions of the main scenario driving forces in the database. The analysis shows that the range for projected population increase in the world, across the scenarios in the database, is the smallest of all main driving forces (about a factor of 3 in 2100). The range of economic growth, measured by the gross world product, and the range of primary energy consumption vary by a factor of 10 in 2100. Carbon intensity of energy, an indicator of the degree of technological change, varies by nearly two orders of magnitude in the year 2100. In addition, this paper presents the first attempt to analyze the relationships among the main scenario driving forces. Subsequent papers in this special issue give further analyses of the relationships among the main scenario driving forces and their other relevant characteristics.     

Verification of lipofuscin-based crustacean ageing: seasonality of lipofuscin accumulation in the stomatopod Oratosquilla oratoria in relation to water temperature

To verify the lipofuscin-based age estimation of crustaceans of unknown age from wild populations, we conducted a modal analysis of lipofuscin-concentration histograms in the stomatopod Oratosquilla oratoria seasonally collected from Tokyo Bay, Japan. Confocal microscopy and subsequent image analysis were used to quantify lipofuscin concentrations in the protocerebral bridge cell mass in the brain. Conventional body length frequency analysis failed to detect modes corresponding to ≥1 year old. In contrast, four or five distinct modes were found in the lipofuscin-concentration histograms, in which modes could be readily traced across months, suggesting that each mode represented an independent age group. The lipofuscin accumulation rate fluctuated seasonally: it was high in summer (June–July) and low in winter (December–January). Cross-correlation analysis showed that the highest instantaneous lipofuscin accumulation rate was achieved in early summer before maximum bottom temperatures were reached and when the temperature was increasing most rapidly. Our findings support the usefulness of lipofuscin concentration analysis in age estimation in wild crustacean populations.     

Starvation-induced barotolerance as a survival mechanism of a psychrophilic marine vibrio in the waters of the Antarctic convergence

Ant-300, a psychrophilic marine vibrio isolated from the Antarctic convergence, was tested for survival under conditions simulating those expected in situ for this organism. In particular, the organism's response to increased hydrostatic pressure was examined. Under a hydrostatic pressure of 250 atm, the viability of Ant-300 was reduced over 755 in growth media and under starvation conditions after 3 and 2 days, respectively. However, if the cells were starved for 1 week prior to pressurization of the starving suspension, 100% viability was maintained for over 6 weeks at the same pressure. After 10 weeks, the viability of a population of cells suspended for 1 week in natural or artificial seawater at a density of 10³ cells ml^–1 prior to pressurization of the suspension was 2 to 3 times greater than 1 atm controls. The data indicate that starvation conditions are a contributory if not the primary factor for the barotolerance of this organism in Antarctic waters. The data also indicate that under certain conditions, not unlike those expected in situ, hydrostatic pressure actually increases the survival of this organism under low nutrient conditions.Technical Paper No. 4907, Oregon Agricultural Experiment Station.     

Levels of 3,3′,4,4′-tetrachloroazobenzene in herbicides and bulk reagents

The contamination levels of different commercial herbicides and bulk reagents with the carcinogen 3,3′,4,4′-tetrachloroazobenzene (TCAB) were determined by high resolution mass spectrometry. The concentrations vary from 0.00071 to 2.8 ug/g (ppm) for the herbicides and from 0.085 to 14 ug/g for the bulk reagents. They are thus lower than those of other reports.     

Control of mercury emissions from a municipal solid waste incinerator in Japan

The control of Hg emissions from a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) is very important, because more than 78% of municipal solid waste (MSW) is incinerated. The Hg content of coal used in utility boilers is relatively low in Japan. In this study, recent trends in the Hg content of MSW in Japan and activated carbon (AC) injection as a control technology of Hg emission from an MSWI are discussed. The effect of AC injection on Hg removal from flue gas in an MSWI was investigated by pilot-scale experiments using a bag filter (BF). The injection of AC increases the Hg reduction ratio by 20-30% compared with cases without AC injection. The Hg reduction ratio increases as the flue gas temperature decreases. The Hg reduction ratio is closely related to the inlet Hg concentration and was expressed with a Langmuir-type adsorption isotherm.     

Formation of chlorodibenzofurans by thermal decomposition of vinylidene chloride polymer

This is the first reported measurement of four kinds of chlorodibenzofurans formed in the pyrolytic decomposition of vinylidene chloride, a polymer used as wrapping film. 3-Chloro isomer was the most abundant among four monochlorodibenzofurans.     

Resurrection of the iron and phosphorus resource in steel-making slag

 This research focused on the treatment of steel-making slags to recycle and recover iron and phosphorus. The carbothermal reduction behavior of both synthesized and factory steel-making slag in microwave irradiation was investigated. The slags were mixed with graphite powder and heated to a temperature higher than 1873 K to precipitate a lump of Fe–C alloy with a diameter of 2–8 mm. The larger the carbon equivalent (C_eq, defined in the text), the higher the fractional reduction of iron and phosphorus. An increase in the SiO₂ content of slag led to a considerable improvement in the reduction for both iron and phosphorus because of the improvement in the fluidity of the slags and an increase in the activity coefficient of P₂O₅ in the slags. The extraction behavior of phosphorus from Fe–P–C_satd alloy was also investigated at 1473 K by carbonate flux treatment. For all the experiments with a processing time longer than 10 min, the phosphorus in the fluxes could be concentrated to more than 9% (w/w) showing that it could be used as a phosphorus resource. Compared with K₂CO₃ flux treatment, that using Na₂CO₃ was more effective for the extraction of phosphorus, and this was attributed to the lower evaporation of Na₂CO₃. Finally, a recycling scheme for steel-making slag is proposed. Received: March 16, 2001 / Accepted: November 12, 2001     

Evaluating Japanese policy instruments for the promotion of renewable energy sources

In Japan, the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) and the Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) have been used for the exploitation of renewable energy sources (RES). Although these are significant to enhance the use of RES, the RES penetration is not reaching the expected percentage. The identification of their strengths/weaknesses will allow their improvement for achieving the target. This paper concerned the evaluation of RPS and FIT using a multi-criteria evaluation method. First, official data/information were used to assess their performance using the method. Second, national experts were asked about their performance to verify the outcomes. We found FIT was more effective than RPS.