On interacting bee/mite populations: a stochastic model with analysis using cumulant truncation

Parasitism by the Varroa mite has had recent drastic impact on both managed and feral bee colonies. This paper proposes a stochastic population dynamics model for interacting African bee colony and Varroa mite populations. Cumulant truncation procedures are used to obtain approximate transient cumulant functions, unconstrained by the usual assumption of bivariate Normality, for an assumed large-scale model. The apparent size of the variance and skewness functions suggest the importance of the proposed truncation procedure which retains some higher-order cumulants, but determining the accuracy of the approximations is problematical. A smaller-scale bee/Varroa mite model is hence proposed and investigated. The accuracy for the means is exceptional, for the second-order cumulants is moderate, and for some third-order cumulants is poor. Notwithstanding the poor accuracy of a skewness approximation, the saddlepoint approximations for the marginal transient population size distributions are excellent. The cumulant truncation methodology is very general, and research is continuing in its application to this new class of host-parasite models.     

Spatial occurrence of a habitat-tracking saproxylic beetle inhabiting a managed forest landscape.

Because of the dynamic nature of many managed habitats, proper evaluation of conservation efforts calls for models that take into account both spatial and temporal habitat dynamics. We develop a metapopulation model for successional-type systems, in which habitat quality changes over time in a predictable fashion. The occupancy and recruitment of the predatory saproxylic (dependent on dead wood) beetle Harminius undulatus was studied in a managed boreal forest landscape, covering 24,449 ha, in central Sweden. In a first step, we analyzed the beetle's occupancy pattern in relation to stand characteristics, and the amounts of present and past habitat in the surrounding landscape. Managed forest is suitable habitat when > or =60 years old, and immediately after cutting, but not between the ages of 10 and 60 years. The observed occupancy of H. undulatus was positively correlated with the stand's age as habitat. We used a metapopulation model to predict the current probability of occurrence in each forest stand, given the spatiotemporal distribution of suitable forest stands during the last 50 years. Metapopulation parameters were estimated by matching predicted spatial distributions with observed spatial distributions. The model predicted observed spatial distributions better than a similar model that assumed constant habitat quality of each forest stand. Thus, metapopulation models for successional-type systems, such as dead wood dependent organisms in managed forest landscapes, should include habitat dynamics. An estimated 82% of the landscape-wide recruitment took place in managed stands, which covered 87% of the forest area, in comparison with 18% in unmanaged stands, which covered 13% of the forest area. Among the managed stand types, > or =60-year-old stands and 3-7-year-old clear-cuttings contributed to 79% of the total recruitment while 8-59-year-old stands only contributed 3%. The results suggest the following guidelines to improve conditions for H. undulatus and other species with similar habitat requirements: (1) the proportion of the landscape constituted by younger stands should not be allowed to grow too large, (2) the rotation period of managed stands should not be allowed to be too short, and (3) dead wood should be retained and created at final cutting.     

The trophic link between squid and the emperor penguin <Emphasis Type="Italic">Aptenodytes forsteri</Emphasis> at Pointe Géologie,Antarctica

Cephalopod beaks retrieved from stomachs of dead emperor penguin chicks at Pointe Géologie, Terre Adélie, provide information on taxonomic and size composition of the penguin’s squid diet, on the trophic range of the squid species preyed upon and on the fractional trophic impact of the penguin on the whole food web. Emperor penguins prey upon four squid species (Psychroteuthis glacialis, Kondakovia longimana, Gonatus antarcticus, Alluroteuthis antarcticus) and do not take squid larger than 480 mm mantle length. Larger squid live either below the penguin’s diving range or are beyond its handling capacity. Nitrogen stable isotope ratios indicate that squids cover a range of about two trophic levels (2.5–8‰ δ¹⁵N). The impact of the emperor penguin, however, concentrates on the upper part of this range, about 68% of its squid prey being >6‰ δ¹⁵N. The principal components of the emperor’s diet, fish, krill and squid, differ distinctly in average trophic level. Consequently the trophic position of the emperor penguin changes accordingly with diet composition and may differ by almost one trophic level between different emperor penguin colonies.     

Nitrogen spatial heterogeneity influences diversity following restoration in a ponderosa pine forest, Montana.

The resource heterogeneity hypothesis (RHH) is frequently cited in the ecological literature as an important mechanism for maintaining species diversity. The RHH has rarely been evaluated in the context of restoration ecology in which a commonly cited goal is to restore diversity. In this study we focused on the spatial heterogeneity of total inorganic nitrogen (TIN) following restoration treatments in a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)/Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forest in western Montana, USA. Our objective was to evaluate relationships between understory species richness and TIN heterogeneity following mechanical thinning (thin-only), prescribed burning (burn-only), and mechanical thinning with prescribed burning (thin/burn) to discern the ecological and management implications of these restoration approaches. We employed a randomized block design, with three 9-ha replicates of each treatment and an untreated control. Within each treatment, we randomly established a 20 x 50 m (1000 m2) plot in which we measured species richness across the entire plot and in 12 1-m(2) quadrats randomly placed within each larger plot. Additionally, we measured TIN from a grid consisting of 112 soil samples (0-5 cm) in each plot and computed standard deviations as a measure of heterogeneity. We found a correlation between the net increase in species richness and the TIN standard deviations one and two years following restoration treatments, supporting RHH. Using nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordination and chi-squared analysis, we found that high and low TIN quadrats contained different understory communities in 2003 and 2004, further supporting RHH. A comparison of restoration treatments demonstrated that thin/burn and burn-only treatments created higher N heterogeneity relative to the control. We also found that within prescribed burn treatments, TIN heterogeneity was positively correlated with fine-fuel consumption, a variable reflecting burn severity. These findings may lead to more informed restoration decisions that consider treatment effects on understory diversity in ponderosa pine/Douglas-fir ecosystems.     

Using multi-objective classification to model communities of soil microarthropods

In agricultural soil, a suite of anthropogenic events shape the ecosystem processes and populations. However, the impact from anthropogenic sources on the soil environment is almost exclusively assessed for chemicals, although other factors like crop and tillage practices have an important impact as well. Thus, the farming system as a whole should be evaluated and ranked according to its environmental benefits and impacts. Our starting point is a data set describing agricultural events and soil biological parameters. Using machine learning methods for inducing regression and model trees, we produce empirical models able to predict the soil quality from agricultural measures in terms of quantities describing the soil microarthropod community. We are also interested in discovering additional higher level knowledge. In particular, we have identified the most important factors influencing the population densities of springtails and mites and their biodiversity. We also identify to which agricultural actions different microarthropods react distinctly. To obtain this higher level knowledge, we employ multi-objective regression trees.     

Land Use-related Chemical Composition of Street Sediments in Beijing

BACKGROUND: More than 10 million people are currently living in Beijing. This city faces severe anthropogenic air pollution caused by an intense vehicle increase (11% per year in China), coal combusting power plants, heavy industry, huge numbers of household and restaurant cookers, and domestic heating stoves. Additionally, each year dust storms are carrying particulate matter from the deserts of Gobi and Takla Makan towards Beijing, especially in spring. Other geogenic sources of particulate matter which contribute to the air pollution are bare soils, coal heaps and construction sites occurring in and around Beijing. Streets function as receptor surfaces for atmospheric dusts. Thus, street sediments consist of particles of different chemical compositions from many different sources, such as traffic, road side soils and industry. METHODS: Distributions and concentrations of various chemical elements in street sediments were investigated along a rural-urban transect in Beijing, China. Chemical elements were determined with X-ray fluorescence analysis. Factor analysis was used to extract most important element sources contributing to particulate pollution along a main arterial route of the Chinese capital. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The statistical evaluation of the data by factor analysis identifies three main anthropogenic sources responsible for the contamination of Beijing street sediments. The first source is a steel factory in the western part of Beijing. From this source, Mn, Fe, and Ti were emitted into the atmosphere through chimneys and by wind from coal heaps used as the primary energy source for the factory. The second source is a combination of traffic, domestic heating and some small factories in the center of Beijing discharging Cu, Pb, Zn and Sn. Calcium and Cr characterize a third anthropogenic element source of construction materials such as concrete and mortar. Beside the anthropogenic contamination, some elements like Y, Zr, Nb, Ce, and Rb are mainly derived from natural soils and from the deserts. This is supported by mineral phase analysis, which showed a clear imprint of material in road dusts coming from the West-China deserts. CONCLUSIONS: Our results clearly show that the chemical composition of urban road dusts can be used to identify distinct sources responsible for their contamination. The study demonstrates that the chemistry of road dusts is an important monitor to assess the contamination in the urban environment. Chemical composition of street sediments in Beijing comprises the information of different sources of atmospheric particles. RECOMMENDATIONS AND OUTLOOK: This study is only a small contribution to the understanding of substance fluxes related to Beijing's dust. More effort is required to assess Beijing's dust fluxes, since the dust harms the living quality of the inhabitants. Especially the measurable superimposing of long scale transported dust from dry regions with the anthropogenic polluted urban dust makes investigations of Beijing's dust scientifically valuable.     

Comparison of current Federal Reference Methods for ambient lead measurements adjacent to a secondary lead smelter

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reduced their National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for lead (Pb) an order of magnitude to a concentration level of 0.15 micrograms per cubic meter (µg/m³) when the new rule was promulgated in 2008. At that time, the possibility of revising the Pb sampling method from total suspended particulate (TSP) to particulate matter less than or equal to 10 µm in diameter (PM₁₀) was considered due to potential measurement bias of the Pb-TSP monitoring technique. The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) has been operating source-orientated colocated TSP and PM₁₀ monitors documenting ambient air lead (Pb) concentrations since 2011 at a site adjacent to a secondary Pb smelter in Wallkill, New York. The colocated Wallkill data show a very strong correlation between the readings recorded by these two sampling techniques. After the range of the variability in the individual Pb-PM₁₀/Pb-TSP ratios was reduced by using a 0.005 µg/m³ concentration cut point, because of the concerns about the measurements at low concentrations, an adjustment factor (AF) of 1.49 was calculated using the remaining data set. This AF can be used to estimate Pb-TSP concentrations from Pb-PM₁₀ readings at this Wallkill source-orientated location. It was stated by the EPA that there is only a limited data set in situations where Pb-TSP and Pb-PM₁₀ are colocated, especially for those sites considered to be source-oriented, so the analyses performed and summarized herein for the Wallkill colocated airborne Pb concentration data add to that limited data set.

Implications: These data analyses add to the limited data set in situations where Pb-TSP and Pb-PM₁₀ are colocated to help refine the derivation of a site-specific adjustment factor for estimating TSP Pb concentrations from measured PM₁₀ Pb concentrations. This could assist the EPA in transitioning away from the use of the Pb-TSP monitoring technique, with its indicated measurement bias, for the Pb NAAQS to the use of Pb-PM₁₀ instead. An adjustment factor of 1.49 was calculated that could be used to estimate Pb-TSP concentrations from Pb-PM₁₀ values collected around this source-orientated location.     

Rejection of emerging organic micropollutants in nanofiltration-reverse osmosis membrane applications.

The rejection of emerging trace organics by a variety of commercial reverse osmosis (RO), nanofiltration (NF), and ultra-low-pressure RO (ULPRO) membranes was investigated using TFC-HR, NF-90, NF-200, TFC-SR2, and XLE spiral membrane elements (Koch Membrane Systems, Wilmington, Massachusetts) to simulate operational conditions for drinking-water treatment and wastewater reclamation. In general, the presence of effluent organic matter (EfOM) improved the rejection of ionic organics by tight NF and RO membranes, as compared to a type-II water matrix (adjusted by ionic strength and hardness), likely as a result of a decreased negatively charged membrane surface. Rejection of ionic pharmaceutical residues and pesticides exceeded 95% by NF-90, XLE, and TFC-HR membranes and was above 89% for the NF-200 membrane. Hydrophobic nonionic compounds, such as bromoform and chloroform, exhibited a high initial rejection, as a result of both hydrophobic-hydrophobic solute-membrane interactions and steric exclusion, but rejection decreased significantly after 10 hours of operation because of partitioning of solutes through the membranes. This resulted in a partial removal of disinfection byproducts by the RO membrane TFC-HR. In a type-II water matrix, the effect of increasing feed water recoveries on rejection of hydrophilic ionic and nonionic compounds was compound-dependent and not consistent for different membranes. The presence of EfOM, however, could neutralize the effect of hydrodynamic operating condition on rejection performance. The ULPRO and tight NF membranes were operated at lower feed pressure, as compared to the TFC-HR, and provided a product water quality similar to a conventional RO membrane, regarding trace organics of interest.     

Estimation of selected physicochemical properties for methylated naphthalene compounds

Liquid aqueous solubility (S(w,L)), octanol/water partition coefficients (K(ow)), liquid vapor pressure (P(v,L)), and Henry's law constants (H(c)) were estimated for 20 methylated naphthalenes ranging from monomethyl to tetramethylnaphthalenes. Chromatographic methods were used for the estimation. Chromatographic retention measurements were conducted for 11 reference compounds and regressions were fit between the retention indices and the physicochemical properties. HPLC octadecylsilyl column with acetonitrile/water eluent was used for the estimation of S(w,L) and K(ow). Two GC columns, HP5-MS and a more hydrophobic HP-1, were tested for the estimation of P(v,L). Measured retention indices for the methylated naphthalenes were entered to the regression equations to calculate the physicochemical properties for these compounds. Literature values, where available, were used to validate the calculated values. The method accurately estimated the physicochemical properties. Estimated S(w,L) and P(v,L) decreased with the number of methyl groups. K(ow) increased with the number of methyl groups. There was no obvious relation between H(c) and the number of methyl groups. Log S(w,L) ranged from 0.885 for 1,2,5,6-tetramethylnaphthalene to 2.269 for 1-methylnaphthalene (mmol/m(3)). Log K(ow) varied from 3.89 for 1-methylnaphthalene to 4.95 for 1,2,5,6-tetramethylnaphthalene. Log P(v,L) ranged from -0.983 for 1,2,5,6-tetramethylnaphthalene to 0.789 for 2-methylnaphthalene (Pa). Log H(c) varied from 1.03 for 1,4,5-trimethylnaphthalene to 1.73 for 2,6-dimethylnaphthalene (Pa m(3)/mol). There were no apparent effects of GC column hydrophobicity on the accuracy of the results. Estimation of S(w,L) and K(ow) based on GC retention indices was not as accurate as with HPLC. Comparison of the estimated values with values predicted by EPIWIN indicated that EPIWIN is useful in giving order-of-magnitude prediction of physicochemical properties.