SENSITWITY ANALYSIS OF SIMULATED CONTAMINATED SEDIMENT TRANSPORT1

ABSTRACT: A simulation analysis of contaminated sediment transport involves model selection, data collection, model calibration and verification, and evaluation of uncertainty in the results. Sensitivity analyses provide information to address these issues at several stages of the investigation. A sensitivity analysis of simulated contaminated sediment transport is used to identify the most sensitive output variables and the parameters most responsible for the output variable sensitivity. The output variables included are streamflow and the flux of sediment and Cs¹³⁷. The sensitivities of these variables are measured at the field and intermediate scales, for flood and normal flow conditions, using the HSPF computer model. A sensitivity index was used to summarize and compare the results of a large number of output variables and parameters. An extensive database was developed to calibrate the model and conduct the sensitivity analysis on a 6.2 mi² catchment in eastern Tennessee. The fluxes of sediment and Cs¹³⁷ were more sensitive than streamflow to changes in parameters for both flood and normal flow conditions. The relative significance of specific parameters on output variable sensitivity varied according to the type of flow condition and the location in the catchment. An implications section illustrates how sensitivity analysis results can help with model selection, planning data collection, calibration, and uncertainty analysis.     

A SEDIMENT RESUSPENSION AND WATER QUALITY MODEL OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE1

ABSTRACT: The influence of sediment resuspension on the water quality of shallow lakes is well documented. However, a search of the literature reveals no deterministic mass-balance eutrophication models that explicitly include resuspension. We modified the Lake Okeechobee water quality model - which uses the Water Analysis Simulation Package (WASP) to simulate algal dynamics and phosphorus, nitrogen, and oxygen cycles - to include inorganic suspend. ed solids and algorithms that: (1) define changes in depth with changes in volume; (2) compute sediment resuspension based on bottom shear stress; (3) compute partition coefficients for ammonia and ortho-phosphorus to solids; and (4) relate light attenuation to solids concentrations. The model calibration and validation were successful with the exception of dissolved inorganic nitrogen species which did not correspond well to observed data in the validation phase. This could be attributed to an inaccurate formulation of algal nitrogen preference and/or the absence of nitrogen fixation in the model. The model correctly predicted that the lake is light-limited from resuspended solids, and algae are primarily nitrogen limited. The model simulation suggested that biological fluxes greatly exceed external loads of dissolved nutrients; and sediment-water interactions of organic nitrogen and phosphorus far exceed external loads. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that parameters affecting resuspension, settling, sediment nutrient and solids concentrations, mineralization, algal productivity, and algal stoichiometry are factors requiring further study to improve our understanding of the Lake Okeechobee ecosystem.     

LAKE ONTARIO REGULATION UNDER TRANSPOSED CLIMATES1

ABSTRACT: The implications of Lake Ontario regulation under transposed climates with changed means and variability are presented for seasonal and annual time scales. The current regulation plan is evaluated with climates other than the climate for which it was developed and tested. This provides insight into potential conflicts and management issues, development of regulation criteria for extreme conditions, and potential modification of the regulation plan. Transposed climates from the southeastern and south central continental United States are applied to thermodynamic models of the Great Lakes and hydrologic models of their watersheds; these climates provide four alternative scenarios of water supplies to Lake Ontario. The scenarios are analyzed with reference to the present Great Lakes climate. The responses of the Lake Ontario regulation plan to the transposed climate scenarios illustrate several key issues: (1) historical water supplies should no longer be the sole basis for testing and developing lake regulation plans; (2) during extreme supply conditions, none of the regulation criteria can be met simultaneously, priority of interests may change, and new interests may need to be considered, potentially requiring substantial revision to the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909; (3) revised regulation criteria should be based on ecosystem health and socio-economic benefits for a wider spectrum of interests and not on frequencies and ranges of levels and flows of the historical climate; and (4) operational management of the lake should be improved under the present climate, and under any future climate with more variability, through the use of improved water supply forecasts and monitoring of current hydrologic conditions.     

Assessing potential bioavailability of metals in sediments: A proposed approach

Due to anthropogenic inputs, elevated concentrations of metals frequently occur in aquatic sediments. In order to make defensible estimates of the potential risk of metals in sediments and/or develop sediment quality criteria for metals, it is essential to identify that fraction of the total metal in the sediments that is bioavailable. Studies with a variety of benthic invertebrates indicate that interstitial (pore) water concentrations of metals correspond very well with the bioavailability of metals in test sediments. Many factors may influence pore water concentrations of metals; however, in anaerobic sediments a key phase controlling partitioning of several cationic metals (cadmium, nickel, lead, zinc, copper) into pore water is acid volatile sulfide (AVS). In this paper, we present an overview of the technical basis for predicting bioavailability of cationic metals to benthic organisms based on pore water metal concentrations and metal-AVS relationships. Included are discussions of the advantages and limitations of metal bioavailability predictions based on these parameters, relative both to site-specific assessments and the development of sediment quality criteria.     

PREDICTING TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL FLOOD DYNAMICS USING A PRECALIBRATED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: A large storm in December 1990 allowed the evaluation of flood predictions from a hydrologic model (TOPMODEL) that had been previously calibrated on the West Fork of Walker Branch Watershed, a gauged 37.5 ha catchment near Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The model predicts both hydrograph dynamics and the spatial distribution of overland flow using an index based on topography. Maximum extent of overland flow during the storm was determined from patterns of leaf litter removal from valley bottoms. Both the flood hydrograph and the extent of overland flow were accurately predicted using model parameters obtained from a three-month period of normal flow conditions during 1983.     

MEETING FUTURE PUBLIC WATER SUPPLY NEEDS: A SOUTHWEST PERSPECTIVE1

ABSTRACT: Most southwestern cities were founded along rivers or in areas having springs or readily available ground water. Because of the generally sparse precipitation, the renewable fresh water supply in the Southwest is smaller than most other areas of the United States. Despite the arid climate, water use has increased rapidly, first in the form of irrigation, and more recently the use in cities. This has caused extensive development of local water resources and overdraft of ground water basins in some areas. It is difficult to implement new local supplies and importation projects due to a myriad of environmental and legal constraints and a general shortage of public funds. Various opportunities and plans for water management, both on the demand and supply sides, are discussed. Evolving water strategies in four metropolitan areas - El Paso, Albuquerque, Las Vegas, and Phoenix - and issues regarding the Central Arizona Project are presented.     

The readability of federal land management plans

Regulations to implement the National Environmental Policy Act state that environmental impact statements shall be written in plain language. Federal land management agencies operate under this guideline when they prepare plans for their lands. We examined 23 agency plans, using the Flesch Reading Ease Scale, to determine if they met this criterion. The scores show that the plans are written for people with three to six years of college education, far beyond the reading ability of the average person. The results suggest that the plans may limit or bias who participates in agency planning. National policy on the readability of the plans needs to be clarified, and agencies need to evaluate, and defend or revise, their writing programs.     

GROUNDWATER CONTAMINATION BY NEMATICIDES: INFLUENCE OF RECHARGE TIMING UNDER PINEAPPLE CROP1

ABSTRACT: Toxic organic compounds, such as DBCP, EDB, and c TCP, that are associated with pineapple cultivation in Hawaii have been discovered in drinking water wells on Oahu. In order to reach and contaminate the Pearl Harbor aquifer, pesticides must be transported quickly downward away from the soil surface prior to complete volatilization, degradation, or adsorption of residuals. This paper assesses the role of pesticide application timing relative to subsequent rainfall-induced recharge events in determining the amount and extent of chemical leaching from the soil. A water balance model for a pineapple crop is developed to estimate the time series of recharge from two fields for which soil contamination profiles are available. In general, the amounts of DBCP, EDB, and TCP found in the soil profiles of the two fields are consistent with expectations of leaching based on an analysis of the recharge time series. The results indicate that recharge during and immediately following the application of pesticides is important in determining whether groundwater contamination will result.     

Environmental gradients in northwest freshwater wetlands

Wetland environmental characteristics are examined to determine their spatial and temporal relationships. Two very different Oregon freshwater wetlands provided a range of wetland types. Results are evaluated to determine the possible use of environmental characteristics in defining wetlands and their boundaries. Representative physical, hydrological, and edaphic properties were periodically measured in microplots along upland/wetland transects. A multivariate approach is stressed in the data analysis; correlation, cluster analysis, and principal components analyses were used. The results indicate the environmental characteristics change in a quantifiable manner both spatially and temporally. The controlling mechanism is moisture, spatially in terms of the upland/wetland transect and temporally with respect to seasonal response. These changes do not correlate well with vegetation. Several hypotheses are offered as an explanation. Correlation within environmental characteristics is variable but definite patterns are discernible. These data suggest both single and combinations of environmental characteristics that could serve as keys in wetland identification and boundary determination. However, before extensive use is made of this information additional long-term monitoring of wetland environmental characteristics will be required.