A pilot project to detect and forecast harmful algal blooms in the northern Gulf of Mexico

More timely access to data and information on the initiation, evolution and effects of harmful algal blooms can reduce adverse impacts on valued natural resources and human health. To achieve this in the northern Gulf of Mexico, a pilot project was initiated to develop a user-driven, end-to-end (measurements to applications) observing system. A key strategy of the project is to coordinate existing state, federal and academic programs at an unprecedented level of collaboration and partnership. Resource managers charged with protection of public health and aquatic resources require immediate notice of algal events and a forecast of when, where and what adverse effects will likely occur. Further, managers require integrated analyses and interpretations, rather than raw data, to make effective decisions. Consequently, a functional observing system must collect and transform diverse measurements into usable forecasts. Data needed to support development of forecasts will include such properties as sea surface temperature, winds, currents and waves; precipitation and freshwater flows with related discharges of sediment and nutrients; salinity, dissolved oxygen, and chlorophyll concentrations (in vivo fluorescence); and remotely-sensed spatial images of sea surface chlorophyll concentrations. These data will be provided via a mixture of discrete and autonomous in situ sensing with near real-time data telemetry, and remote sensing from space (SeaWiFS), aircraft (hyperspectral imagery) or land (high-frequency radar). With calibration across these platforms, the project will ultimately provide a 4-dimensional visualization of harmful algae events in a time frame suitable to resource managers.     

Review of ozone and temperature lidar validations performed within the framework of the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change

The use of assimilation tools for satellite validation requires true estimates of the accuracy of the reference data. Since its inception, the Network for Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC) has provided systematic lidar measurements of ozone and temperature at several places around the world that are well adapted for satellite validations. Regular exercises have been organised to ensure the data quality at each individual site. These exercises can be separated into three categories: large scale intercomparisons using multiple instruments, including a mobile lidar; using satellite observations as a geographic transfer standards to compare measurements at different sites; and comparative investigations of the analysis software. NDSC is a research network, so each system has its own history, design, and analysis, and has participated differently in validation campaigns. There are still some technological differences that may explain different accuracies. However, the comparison campaigns performed over the last decade have always proved to be very helpful in improving the measurements. To date, more efforts have been devoted to characterising ozone measurements than to temperature observations. The synthesis of the published works shows that the network can potentially be considered as homogeneous within +/-2% between 20-35 km for ozone and +/-1 K between 35-60 km for temperature. Outside this altitude range, larger biases are reported and more efforts are required. In the lower stratosphere, Raman channels seem to improve comparisons but such capabilities were not systematically compared. At the top of the profiles, more investigations on analysis methodologies are still probably needed. SAGE II and GOMOS appear to be excellent tools for future ozone lidar validations but need to be better coordinated and take more advantage of assimilation tools. Also, temperature validations face major difficulties caused by atmospheric tides and therefore require intercomparisons with the mobile systems, at all sites.     

A Simulation Study to Assess the Sensitivity of a Forest Health Monitoring Network to Outbreaks of Defoliating Insects

The sensitivity of the United States Forest Health Monitoring network to outbreaks of defoliating insects was examined by means of a simulation study. A model constructed specifically for the study was used to generate a wide variety of defoliation patterns in forested landscapes. Forest configuration was that of Minnesota, USA, as expressed by the GAP land cover classification. Combinations of model parameters were based on a Latin Hypercube sample. The relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak characteristics was then examined via multiple regression. Both theoretical and model results pointed to a strong, linear relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak size. Model results provided additional insight, suggesting a significant relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and other outbreak characteristics after outbreak size was taken into account.     

Application of processed organic municipal solid waste on agricultural land – a scenario analysis

Source separation, composting and anaerobic digestion, with associated land application, are increasingly being considered as alternative waste management strategies to landfilling and incineration of municipal solid waste (MSW). Environmental life cycle assessments are a useful tool in political decision-making about waste management strategies. However, due to the diversity of processed organic MSW and the situations in which it can be applied, the environmental impacts of land application are very hard to determine by experimental means. In the current study, we used the agroecosystem model Daisy to simulate a range of different scenarios representing different geographical areas, farm and soil types under Danish conditions and legislation. Generally, the application of processed organic MSW resulted in increased emissions compared with the corresponding standard scenarios, but with large differences between scenarios. Emission coefficients for nitrogen leaching to the groundwater ranged from 0.03 to 0.87, while those for nitrogen lost to surface waters through tile drains ranged from 0 to 0.30. Emission coefficients for N₂O formation ranged from 0.013 to 0.022 and for ammonia volatilization from 0.016 to 0.11. These estimates are within reasonable range of observed values under similar conditions. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis showed that the estimates were not very sensitive to the mineralization dynamics of the processed organic MSW. The results show that agroecosystem models can be powerful tools to estimate the environmental impacts of land application of processed MSW under different conditions. Despite this, agroecosystem models have only been used to a very limited degree for this purpose.     

Diving behaviour of Little Penguins from four colonies across their whole distribution range: bathymetry affecting diving effort and fledging success

Little Penguins, Eudyptula minor, breed in several small colonies in New Zealand and Australia. In this study, we compare the birds’ diving performances at different sites situated throughout their breeding range. Environmental conditions and breeding success vary drastically amongst colonies, but all birds feed on similar types of prey and face similar limitations on their foraging range. We examined several diving parameters and calculated the proportion of foraging zone available during breeding to examine whether oceanographic and geographic factors in the foraging zone can explain variations in diving behaviour and fledging success among the different colonies. In colonies with high fledging success, Penguin Island and Oamaru, penguins made shallow dives <50 m depth and had lower diving effort. More than 90% of the foraging zone was in waters <50 m depth in these colonies. Motuara Island also has shallow waters with 95% <50 m depth, but the fledging success was low. Phillip Island has only 42% of waters <50 m and comparatively low fledging success. Thus, penguins dived deeper and showed a higher diving effort in colonies with lower fledging success (Motuara Island and Phillip Island), indicating that they were disadvantaged compared to conspecifics from other colonies that dived shallower and with a lesser diving effort. We concluded that bathymetry is an important factor, but not the only one, which influences fledging success.     

Quantifying the global threat to native birds from predation by non-native birds on small islands

Although invasive non-native species can adversely affect biodiversity in many ways, predation of native species by non-native species on islands can be severely damaging. Results of numerous studies document non-native birds preying on birds on islands, but our understanding of the number and type of species affected has been limited by the lack of a global review of these impacts. I identified the non-native bird species that have been recorded preying on birds, the locations where this predation occurred, and the bird species affected. Because the impacts of non-native birds can be particularly severe on small islands, I then identified the islands <500 km² around the world that are occupied by predatory non-native birds. By taking into account their life-history traits and predation history, I also identified the near-threatened and threatened bird species on these islands that they may prey on. The results indicated that predation by non-native birds was primarily a concern for threatened bird conservation on small islands; almost all predation impacts (91%) on near-threatened and threatened birds were recorded on islands, and median island size was 106 km². I also found non-native bird predation was a poorly known and widespread potential threat to avian biodiversity; worldwide, 194 islands of <500 km² were occupied by predatory non-native birds, but information on their impacts was unavailable for most of these islands. On them, where the impacts of non-native species can be severe, non-native birds may be preying on approximately 6% of the world's near-threatened and threatened bird species. Four non-native bird species I identified have been successfully eradicated from islands. If they were eradicated from the small islands they occupy, 70% of the near-threatened and threatened bird species I identified would no longer be affected by nest predation by non-native birds on small islands.     

State subsidies induce gray jays to accept greater danger: an ecologically rational response?

Models of strictly rational choice assume that decision-makers evaluate options on relevant dimensions, assign fixed values to options, and then make consistent choices based on these values. If so, recent experience would have no impact on preference. But, recent events change an animal’s state, and preference may change accordingly. We explore how state affects willingness to accept greater danger to obtain larger food rewards. We tested how a supplement in state (hoard size) impacts this willingness in gray jays (Perisoreus canadensis). When subsidized, most of the subjects increased their willingness to trade danger for food. Why would they become less cautious when their hoard was increased? Superficially, it might seem prudent to play it safer in response to a subsidy. But imagining fitness as a sigmoid function of state (hoard size) provides a tentative explanation for our counterintuitive finding. Above a threshold hoard size, a subsidy should weaken the willingness to accept extra danger. Incremental increases in state in the deceleratory phase yield smaller fitness gains, so it would pay to increase emphasis on safety after receiving a subsidy. But below this threshold, incremental increases in state in the acceleratory phase yield bigger fitness gains, and so it would pay to decrease emphasis on safety after receiving a subsidy. Most of our subjects’ choice behavior was, thus, plausibly consistent with the possibility that effective hoard size is considerably smaller than the total number of items stored. We speculate that this response may reflect an ecologically rational compensation for the inevitable loss of hoards via theft and rot.     

Landscape constraints on functional diversity of birds and insects in tropical agroecosystems

In this paper, we analyzeatabases on birds and insects to assess patterns of functional diversity in human-dominated landscapes in the tropics. A perspective from developed landscapes is essential for understanding remnant natural ecosystems, because most species experience their surroundings at spatial scales beyond the plot level, and spillover between natural and managed ecosystems is common. Agricultural bird species have greater habitat and diet breadth than forest species. Based on a global data base, bird assemblages in tropical agroforest ecosystems were composed of disproportionately more frugivorous and nectarivorous, but fewer insectivorous bird species compared with forest. Similarly, insect predators of plant-feeding arthropods were more diverse in Ecuadorian agroforest and forest compared with rice and pasture, while, in Indonesia, bee diversity was also higher in forested habitats. Hence, diversity of insectivorous birds and insect predators as well as bee pollinators declined with agricultural transformation. In contrast, with increasing agricultural intensification, avian pollinators and seed dispersers initially increase then decrease in proportion. It is well established that the proximity of agricultural habitats to forests has a strong influence on the functional diversity of agroecosystems. Community similarity is higher among agricultural systems than in natural habitats and higher in simple than in complex landscapes for both birds and insects, so natural communities, low-intensity agriculture, and heterogeneous landscapes appear to be critical in the preservation of beta diversity. We require a better understanding of the relative role of landscape composition and the spatial configuration of landscape elements in affecting spillover of functionally important species across managed and natural habitats. This is important for data-based management of tropical human-dominated landscapes sustaining the capacity of communities to reorganize after disturbance and to ensure ecological functioning.     

Fish distributions and nutrient cycling in streams: can fish create biogeochemical hotspots?

Rates of biogeochemical processes often vary widely in space and time, and characterizing this variation is critical for understanding ecosystem functioning. In streams, spatial hotspots of nutrient transformations are generally attributed to physical and microbial processes. Here we examine the potential for heterogeneous distributions of fish to generate hotspots of nutrient recycling. We measured nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) excretion rates of 47 species of fish in an N-limited Neotropical stream, and we combined these data with population densities in each of 49 stream channel units to estimate unit- and reach-scale nutrient recycling. Species varied widely in rates of N and P excretion as well as excreted N:P ratios (6-176 molar). At the reach scale, fish excretion could meet >75% of ecosystem demand for dissolved inorganic N and turn over the ambient NH4 pool in <0.3 km. Areal N excretion estimates varied 47-fold among channel units, suggesting that fish distributions could influence local N availability. P excretion rates varied 14-fold among units but were low relative to ambient concentrations. Spatial variation in aggregate nutrient excretion by fish reflected the effects of habitat characteristics (depth, water velocity) on community structure (body size, density, species composition), and the preference of large-bodied species for deep runs was particularly important. We conclude that the spatial distribution of fish could indeed create hotspots of nutrient recycling during the dry season in this species-rich tropical stream. The prevalence of patchy distributions of stream fish and invertebrates suggests that hotspots of consumer nutrient recycling may often occur in stream ecosystems.     

The energy balance closure problem: an overview

This paper gives an overview of 20 years of research on the energy balance closure problem. It will be shown that former assumptions that measuring errors or storage terms are the reason for the unclosed energy balance do not stand up because even turbulent fluxes derived from documented methods and calibrated sensors, net radiation, and ground heat fluxes cannot close the energy balance. Instead, exchange processes on larger scales of the heterogeneous landscape have a significant influence. By including these fluxes, the energy balance can be approximately closed. Therefore, the problem is a scale problem and has important consequences to the measurement and modeling of turbulent fluxes.