Spatial Validation of Land Use Change Models Using Multiple Assessment Techniques: A Case Study of Transition Potential Models

Using land use and cover change (LUCC) models for the urban growth planning, environmental assessment, and decision-making needs the establishment of an appropriate level of confidence in their performance. The objective of this research is to explore the importance of using multiple assessment techniques in order to fairly evaluate the performance of land use models. An application is conducted by using the Land Change Modeler for Ecological Sustainability (LCM) which is an empirical and transition potential model. LCM is applied to model the agricultural to developed areas transition in Rennes metropolitan area (France). The land demand is estimated using the Markov Chain model; whereas, the transition potential map is implemented using the Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP) method based on historical changes and driving variables. The model performance is assessed based on a variety of the most commonly used validation techniques. At the study area level, the correctness and disagreement analysis shows that LCM performs better at predicting the amount than the allocation of developed areas. Additionally, landscape metrics reveal that LCM tends to predict a fragmented urban form, which seems evident because of the large number of the individual urban patches. At the municipality level, the error budget analysis shows that the model performance, which varies highly between different subareas, needs to be improved. Moreover, the cross-tabulation between the transition potential map and both the observed and the predicted agricultural to developed areas transitions reveals that the order of the transition potential values does not perfectly fit the observed change; whereas, the predicted change is not solely limited to areas with high potential.     

Using Multi-Scale Sampling and Spatial Cross-Correlation to Investigate Patterns of Plant Species Richness

Land managers need better techniques to assess exoticplant invasions. We used the cross-correlationstatistic, I _YZ, to test for the presence ofspatial cross-correlation between pair-wisecombinations of soil characteristics, topographicvariables, plant species richness, and cover ofvascular plants in a 754 ha study site in RockyMountain National Park, Colorado, U.S.A. Using 25 largeplots (1000 m²) in five vegetation types, 8 of 12variables showed significant spatial cross-correlationwith at least one other variable, while 6 of 12variables showed significant spatial auto-correlation. Elevation and slope showed significant spatialcross-correlation with all variables except percentcover of native and exotic species. Percent cover ofnative species had significant spatialcross-correlations with soil variables, but not withexotic species. This was probably because of thepatchy distributions of vegetation types in the studyarea. At a finer resolution, using data from ten1 m² subplots within each of the 1000 m² plots, allvariables showed significant spatial auto- andcross-correlation. Large-plot sampling was moreaffected by topographic factors than speciesdistribution patterns, while with finer resolutionsampling, the opposite was true. However, thestatistically and biologically significant spatialcorrelation of native and exotic species could only bedetected with finer resolution sampling. We foundexotic plant species invading areas with high nativeplant richness and cover, and in fertile soils high innitrogen, silt, and clay. Spatial auto- andcross-correlation statistics, along with theintegration of remotely sensed data and geographicinformation systems, are powerful new tools forevaluating the patterns and distribution of native andexotic plant species in relation to landscape structure.     

Responses of Physical, Chemical, and Biological Indicators of Water Quality to a Gradient of Agricultural Land Use in the Yakima River Basin, Washington

The condition of 25 stream sites in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, were assessed by the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Multimetric condition indices were developed and used to rank sites on the basis of physical, chemical, and biological characteristics. These indices showed that sites in the Cascades and Eastern Cascades ecoregions were largely unimpaired. In contrast, all but two sites in the Columbia Basin ecoregion were impaired, some severely. Agriculture (nutrients and pesticides) was the primary factor associated with impairment and all impaired sites were characterized by multiple indicators of impairment. All indices of biological condition (fish, invertebrates, and algae) declined as agricultural intensity increased. The response exhibited by invertebrates and algae suggested a threshold response with conditions declining precipitously at relatively low levels of agricultural intensity and little response at moderate to high levels of agricultural intensity. This pattern of response suggests that the success of mitigation will vary depending upon where on the response curve the mitigation is undertaken. Because the form of the community condition response is critical to effective water-quality management, the National Water-Quality Assessment Program is conducting studies to examine the response of biota to gradients of land-use intensity and the relevance of these responses to water-quality management. These land-use gradient pilot studies will be conducted in several urban areas starting in 1999.     

Design and evaluation of an inlet conditioner to dry particles for real-time particle sizers

Real-time particle sizers provide rapid information about atmospheric particles, particularly peak exposures, which may be important in the development of adverse health outcomes. However, these instruments are subject to erroneous readings in high-humidity environments when compared with measurements from filter-based, federal reference method (FRM) samplers. Laboratory tests were conducted to evaluate the ability of three inlet conditioners to dry aerosol prior to entering a real-time particle sizer for measuring coarse aerosols (Model 3321 Aerodynamic Particle Sizer, APS) under simulated highly humid conditions. Two 30 day field studies in Birmingham, AL, USA were conducted to compare the response of two APSs operated with and without an inlet conditioner to that measured with FRM samplers. In field studies, the correlation of PM(10-2.5) derived from the APS and that measured with the FRM was substantially stronger with an inlet conditioner applied (r2 ranged from 0.91 to 0.99) than with no conditioner (r2 = 0.61). Laboratory experiments confirmed the ability of the heater and desiccant conditioner to remove particle-borne moisture. In field tests, water was found associated with particles across the sizing range of the APS (0.5 microm to 20 microm) when relative humidity was high in Birmingham. Certain types of inlet conditioners may substantially improve the correlation between particulate mass concentration derived from real-time particle sizers and filter-based samplers in humid conditions.     

Inputs of chemicals from recreational activities into the Norwegian coastal zone

Wastewater treatment works effluent is often considered to be one of the most important point sources of a wide range of anthropogenic contaminants to aquatic systems, however, this paper discusses other potential sources. With the aim of establishing the important sources of UV filters, insect repellent and biocides to the aquatic environment, samples were collected from sites with direct (bathing areas and marinas) and indirect (sites receiving wastewater effluent) human influences. Sunscreens containing UV filters are used in large volumes during the summer months and often applied shortly before a person enters the water for swimming activities. The results presented here demonstrate that washing directly from the skin is an important point source of 4 UV filters to the Oslofjord. The insect repellent, diethyl toluamide, was also measured and it was concluded that washing from the skin was not such an important point source into the fjord. Concentrations of the biocide Irgarol 1051 were also measured and were elevated in the small boat marina and surrounding enclosed area. This work demonstrates that man recreational water-based activities are a diffuse source of some contaminants into coastal and fjord environments and this study provides an initial assessment of the levels being released.     

The impact of the tunnel exhausts in terms of heavy metals to the surrounding ecosystem

Samples of soil, plants, and lichens were analysed for heavy metal content (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn) in relation to different distances from the tunnel ventilation systems in order to evaluate the environmental pollution caused by car exhausts pollution from the Tauerntunnel and the Katschbergtunnel (Austria). Results show that the extent of heavy metal pollution is related to the type of tunnel ventilation system. The vertical ventilation system which ends in an exhaust air tower in the alpine pasture of Mosermandl 1,900 m above sea level contaminates soils and plants up to a distance of 750 m from the exhaust source. The dispersion of metals in front of the horizontal ventilation systems, which are located next to the tunnel portals, exhibits a rapid decrease with distance. Lichen transplants placed in front of the horizontal ventilation systems show very high metal accumulation, which gradually declines with the distance from the emitter source, therefore the lichen species Pseudevernia furfuracea can be used as a very efficient biomonitor for monitoring heavy metal pollution caused by tunnel exhausts over time. Data from former years (1986, 1988, 1990 and 1992) and from this present research suggest that the contamination of heavy metals at Mosermandl has decreased slightly in soil samples, except for Cu, but increased in plant samples, whereas a significant increase of Pb was observed.     

Models for waste life cycle assessment: Review of technical assumptions

A number of waste life cycle assessment (LCA) models have been gradually developed since the early 1990s, in a number of countries, usually independently from each other. Large discrepancies in results have been observed among different waste LCA models, although it has also been shown that results from different LCA studies can be consistent. This paper is an attempt to identify, review and analyse methodologies and technical assumptions used in various parts of selected waste LCA models. Several criteria were identified, which could have significant impacts on the results, such as the functional unit, system boundaries, waste composition and energy modelling. The modelling assumptions of waste management processes, ranging from collection, transportation, intermediate facilities, recycling, thermal treatment, biological treatment, and landfilling, are obviously critical when comparing waste LCA models.This review infers that some of the differences in waste LCA models are inherent to the time they were developed. It is expected that models developed later, benefit from past modelling assumptions and knowledge and issues. Models developed in different countries furthermore rely on geographic specificities that have an impact on the results of waste LCA models. The review concludes that more effort should be employed to harmonise and validate non-geographic assumptions to strengthen waste LCA modelling.     

A phenomenological approach shows a high coherence of warming patterns in dimictic aquatic systems across latitude

To predict the coherence in local responses to large-scale climatic forcing among aquatic systems, we developed a generalized approach to compare long-term data of dimictic water bodies based on phenomenologically defined hydrographic events. These climate-sensitive phases (inverse stratification, spring overturn, early thermal stratification, summer stagnation) were classified in a dual code (cold/warm) based on threshold temperatures. Accounting for a latitudinal gradient in seasonal timing of phases derived from gradients in cumulative irradiation (2.2?days per degree latitude), we found a high spatial and temporal coherence in warm–cold patterns for six lakes (84?%) and the Baltic Sea (78?%), even when using the same thresholds for all sites. Similarity to CW-codes for the North Sea still was up to 72?%. The approach allows prediction of phase-specific warming trends and resulting instantaneous or time-delayed ecological responses. Exemplarily, we show that warming during early thermal stratification controls food-web-mediated effects on key species during summer.     

Sympatric sexual signal divergence among North American Calopteryx damselflies is correlated with increased intra- and interspecific male–male aggression

Divergence of sexual signals in sympatry can arise as a consequence of (1) interspecific competition for resources, (2) selection against maladaptive hybridization, or (3) as a result of selection to reduce the cost of interspecific aggression; termed agonistic character displacement (ACD). Calopterygid damselflies have emerged as a model system for studying the evolution of divergent sexual signals due to the repeated evolution of sympatric species pairs with fully and partially melanized wings. Damselfly wing patterns function during both courtship and territory defense. However, the relative contributions of natural and sexual selection to phenotypic divergence and enhanced isolation in sympatry remain unclear in many cases. Here, we investigated the hypothesis that interference competition, in the form of increased interspecific male–male aggression, drives the evolution of character displacement in sympatry between two species of North American damselflies, Calopteryx aequabilis and Calopteryx maculata, that show no evidence of ecological divergence or ongoing hybridization. In paired behavioral trials, we found that interspecific male aggression related to territory defense varied between site, species, and as a function of the relative abundance of con- vs. hetero-specific males. Specifically, we found that large-spotted C. aequabilis males received increased intra- and interspecific aggression but that aggression against large-spotted males declined during the middle of the flight season when both species were equally abundant. Based on these results, we suggest that ACD leads to enhanced species recognition, and may be a common outcome of the antagonism between interspecific male–male competition and the countervailing force of intraspecific sexual selection favoring increased wing melanization among territorial damselfly species.