事故致因理论对自主系统开发与安全运行的启示

在现代工业中,自主智能系统处在创新与探索阶段。由于先验知识的缺乏,其自身所带来的风险问题,越发得到学术界与工业界的关注。本文对于如何应用国际主流的事故致因理论以提高自主系统开发与运营的安全性进行了探讨。指出,现有的事故致因理论可用来从不同角度识别已知风险源,提高对未知风险源的警惕性,并通过描述事故场景,来辅助设计技术安全屏障与运行策略提高自主系统的安全性。为更好的理解自主系统如何会做出错误或不恰当决策,需对现有事故致因理论未涉及到的脑科学与认知心理学进一步的探讨与研究。     

Awareness,riding behaviors,and legislative attitudes toward electric bikes among two types of road users: An investigation in Tianjin,a municipality in China

Objective: This study aimed to understand the awareness, riding behaviors, and legislative attitudes of electric bike (e-bike) users and non-e-bike road users toward e-bikes in Tianjin, a municipality in China.

Methods: This cross-sectional investigation included 2 components. The field survey was conducted in 9 districts (4 urban and 5 rural) from 2015 to 2017. Adult participants were interviewed using a street intercept method. The online survey was conducted using the WeChat social platform. A series of questions related to awareness and practice of e-bike safety-related issues was asked.

Results: A total of 16,859 interviews were completed, including 1,653 (794 e-bike users and 859 other road users) in-person interviews by field survey and 15,206 (4,426 e-bike users and 10,780 other road users) by online survey. Except for ignoring a red light when making a left turn (P?=?.000) and waiting across the white line at a red light (P?=?.000), which e-bike users were lower than other road users, there were no significant differences between e-bike users and other road users in regards to the correct awareness rate of riding in the opposite direction, riding in a motor vehicle lane, running red lights, jaywalking, speeding, carrying adult passengers, and riding on the expressway (P?>?.05). In addition, 74.2% of e-bike users considered helmet use necessary (P?=?.000) and 54.7% thought that installing a windshield is wrong (P?=?.000), which was higher than other road users (49.1 and 48.4%, respectively). Other road users had greater awareness than e-bike users regarding whether turning left at a red light is wrong (91.7 vs. 85.1%), waiting across the white line when the light is red is wrong (86.6 vs. 75.9%), lighs should be turned on at night (94.8 vs. 90.3%). Correct practices were far behind awareness in all kinds of violation behaviors (P?=?.000) among e-bike users in the field survey. The rate of public support for legislation including those who very much support and support legislation was 93.34% in the field survey and 87.68% in the online survey.

Conclusions: E-bike users had lower correct awareness rate than other road users regarding e-bike violation behaviors but were more concerned about safety protection than other road users. E-bike users’ correct practices were far behind their awareness for all kinds of violation behaviors. Public education on the traffic law needs to be strengthened among e-bike users. The public strongly supported special regulations for e-bike use, such as helmet use.     

Temporal and spatial changes of microbial community in an industrial effluent receiving area in Hangzhou Bay

Anthropogenic activities usually contaminate water environments, and have led to the eutrophication of many estuaries and shifts in microbial communities. In this study, the temporal and spatial changes of the microbial community in an industrial effluent receiving area in Hangzhou Bay were investigated by 454 pyrosequencing. The bacterial community showed higher richness and biodiversity than the archaeal community in all sediments. Proteobacteria dominated in the bacterial communities of all the samples; Marine_Group_Ⅰ and Methanomicrobia were the two dominant archaeal classes in the effluent receiving area. PCoA and AMOVA revealed strong seasonal but minor spatial changes in both bacterial and archaeal communities in the sediments. The seasonal changes of the bacterial community were less significant than those of the archaeal community, which mainly consisted of fluctuations in abundance of a large proportion of longstanding species rather than the appearance and disappearance of major archaeal species. Temperature was found to positively correlate with the dominant bacteria, Betaproteobacteria, and negatively correlate with the dominant archaea,Marine_Group_Ⅰ; and might be the primary driving force for the seasonal variation of the microbial community.     

三峡水库沉积物不同赋存形态磷的时空分布

为了认识三峡水库沉积物磷的赋存状况,利用磷形态标准测试程序SMT法对干流和三条代表性支流(香溪河、大宁河、小江)的柱状沉积物进行了总磷(TP)、无机磷(IP)、有机磷(OP)、铁/铝磷(Fe/Al-P)、钙磷(Ca-P)的测定,结果表明干流沉积物TP含量为781~1026 mg·kg-1,支流沉积物TP含量为382~1085 mg·kg-1.TP主要由IP组成,OP所占比例较低;IP主要由Ca-P组成,Fe/Al-P所占比例较低.干流TP含量空间差异不显著,但各赋存形态磷的含量普遍高于支流,支流中香溪河磷含量高于大宁河和小江.垂直方向上各赋存形态磷含量在不同沉积深度没有明显规律;TP、IP、Ca-P三者变化趋势较一致,主要受Ca-P含量的影响.鉴于支流的独特水文条件,相比于干流,更应警惕支流沉积物磷的释放风险及其对水体的环境化学效应.     

Identifying the major fluorescent components responsible for ultrafiltration membrane fouling in different water sources

Three-dimensional fluorescence excitation–emission matrix(EEM) coupled with parallel factor analysis(PARAFAC) was performed for a total of 18 water samples taken from three water sources(two lakes and one wastewater treatment plant(WWTP) secondary effluent),with the purpose of identifying the major ultrafiltration(UF) membrane foulants in different water sources. Three fluorescent components(C1, C2 and C3) were identified,which represented terrestrially derived humic-like substances(C1), microbially derived humic-like substances(C2), and protein-like substances(C3). The correlations between the different fluorescent components and UF membrane fouling were analyzed. It was shown that for the WWTP secondary effluent, all three components(C1, C2 and C3) made a considerable contribution to the irreversible and total fouling of the UF membrane.However, for the two lakes, only the C3 exhibited a strong correlation with membrane fouling, indicating that the protein-like substances were the major membrane foulants in the lake waters. Significant attachment of C1, C2 and C3 to the UF membrane was also confirmed by mass balance analyses for the WWTP secondary effluent; while the attachment of C1 and C2 was shown to be negligible for the two lakes. The results may provide basic formation for developing suitable fouling control strategies for sustainable UF processes.     

Reducing nitrogen runoff from paddy fields with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi under different fertilizer regimes

Nitrogen(N) runoff from paddy fields serves as one of the main sources of water pollution. Our aim was to reduce N runoff from paddy fields by fertilizer management and inoculation with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi(AMF). In northeast China, Shuangcheng city in Heilongjiang province, a field experiment was conducted, using rice provided with 0%, 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%,and 100% of the local norm of fertilization(including N, phosphorus and potassium), with or without inoculation with Glomus mosseae. The volume, concentrations of total N(TN),dissolved N(DN) and particulate N(PN) of runoff water were measured. We found that the local norm of fertilization led to 18.9 kg/ha of N runoff during rice growing season, with DN accounting for 60%–70%. We also found that reduction in fertilization by 20% cut down TN runoff by 8.2% while AMF inoculation decreased N runoff at each fertilizer level and this effect was inhibited by high fertilization. The combination of inoculation with AMF and 80% of the local norm of fertilization was observed to reduce N runoff by 27.2%. Conclusively, we suggested that the contribution of AMF inoculation combined with decreasing fertilization should get more attention to slow down water eutrophication by reducing N runoff from paddy fields.     

基于降低温室效应的航空器运行策略

以航空器运行对环境造成温室效应的两个主要因素—CO_2和凝结尾为研究对象,通过绝对全球温变潜势(AGTP)建立科学统一的衡量标准,将CO_2和凝结尾对环境的影响转换为全球地表温度的改变,为降低温室效应提供依据。最后结合典型高空的探空资料对实际增温进行计算,对比分析25、50、100年时间水平下CO_2和凝结尾对全球地表温度造成的影响,为航空器降低温室效应提供飞行高度指导。     

基于生境等价分析法的罗源湾填海生态损害评估

改进生境等价分析法(habitat equivalency analysis,HEA),推导HEA在填海应用中生态服务受损量与补偿量评估公式。以1990年与2004年罗源湾生态服务水平为基础,假定受损生境自然恢复所需时间为10 a,于2013年采取种植海草床方式进行修复,修复生境达到最大服务所需时间为3 a,计算罗源湾填海生态服务总受损量、修复生境单位面积补偿量及修复规模。结果表明:初级生产力、生物资源和环境容量的受损程度分别为30.73%、61.94%和54.36%,在3%的贴现率水平下,所需海草床面积为109.79 km2,且指标受损程度与修复规模呈正相关关系。参数灵敏度分析表明,补偿起始点越早,修复生境达到最大服务水平所需时间越短,所需修复规模越小;贴现率的选择对修复规模影响显著。这一结论可作为地方政府对罗源湾填海实施生态修复建设和生态补偿管理的技术依据,亦可为其他海洋生态损害评估提供参考。     

珠江口冬春季悬浮泥沙浓度遥感反演模式分析

利用珠江口2014年2月和2014年5月的高光谱遥感反射率和实测悬浮泥沙质量浓度数据进行了两波段悬浮泥沙遥感反演模式的研究。通过分析和对比发现,冬季2月悬浮泥沙质量浓度和光谱遥感反射率相关性较低（R2=0.422）,春季5月二者相关性较好R2=0.693。由于5月为珠江口丰水期,径流量增大,携带泥沙能力增强,存在因上升流引起的泥沙再悬浮现象。另外,丰水期存在咸淡水锋面和锋区附近的盐度梯度也导致悬浮泥沙质量浓度增大。悬浮泥沙质量浓度高,对光敏感,建立模式好。而2月珠江口为冬季枯水期,珠江口伶仃洋海域悬浮泥沙主要来自径流,径流量小,含沙量少,模式较5月差。