Effect of posture on forces and moments measured in a Hybrid III ATD lower leg

Objective: Anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs) are used to assess real injury risk to occupants of vehicles during injurious events. In the lower leg, values from load cells are compared to injury criteria developed in cadaveric studies. These criteria are typically developed with the leg in a neutral posture, whereas the ATD may assume a wide range of postures during safety evaluation tests. The degree to which the initial posture of an ATD has an effect on the measured forces and moments in the lower leg is unknown.

Methods: A Hybrid III ATD lower leg was impacted in a range of postures under conditions representing a crash test, and peak axial force and adjusted tibia index injury measures were evaluated. Ankle posture was varied in 5° increments using a custom-made footplate, and dorsi/plantarflexion (20° DF to 20° PF) and in/eversion (20° IV to 5° EV) were evaluated. Tibia angle was also varied (representing knee flexion/extension) by ±10° from neutral.

Results: Peak axial force was not affected by ankle flexion or tibia angulation. Adjusted tibia index was lowest for plantarflexion, as well as for tibia angles representative of knee extension. Both peak axial force and adjusted tibia index were lowest for postures of great inversion and were highest in neutral or near-neutral postures.

Conclusions: The range of postures tested herein spanned published injury criteria and thus would have made the difference between pass and fail in a safety evaluation. In/eversion had the largest influence on injury metrics, likely due to the change in axial stiffness and altered impact durations in these postures. Results suggest increased injury risk at neutral or near-neutral postures, whereas previous cadaveric studies have suggested that in/eversion does not influence injury risk. It is unclear whether the ATD appropriately represents the natural lower leg for impacts in out-of-position testing. Great care must be taken when initially positioning ATDs for safety evaluations, because small perturbations in posture were shown herein to have large effects on the measured injury risk using this tool.     

Structured Decision Making to Meet a National Water Quality Mandate

Water quality criteria are necessary to ensure protection of ecological and human health conditions, but compliance can require complex decisions. We use structured decision making to consider multiple stakeholder objectives in a water quality management process, with a case study in the Three Bays watershed on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. We set a goal to meet or exceed a nitrogen load reduction target for the watershed and four key objectives: minimizing economic costs of implementing management actions, minimizing the complexity of permitting management actions, maximizing stakeholder acceptability of the management actions, and maximizing the provision of ecosystem services (recreational opportunity, erosion and flood control, socio‐cultural amenity). We used multi‐objective optimization and sensitivity analysis to generate many possible solutions that implement different combinations of nitrogen‐removing management actions and reflect tradeoffs between the objectives. Results show technological advances in controlling household nitrogen sources could provide lower cost solutions and positive impacts to ecosystem services. Although this approach is demonstrated with Cape Cod data, the decision‐making process is not specific to any watershed and could be easily applied elsewhere.     

Bird species and traits associated with logged and unlogged forest in Borneo.

The ecological consequences of logging have been and remain a focus of considerable debate. In this study, we assessed bird species composition within a logging concession in Central Kalimantan, Indonesian Borneo. Within the study area (approximately 196 km2) a total of 9747 individuals of 177 bird species were recorded. Our goal was to identify associations between species traits and environmental variables. This can help us to understand the causes of disturbance and predict whether species with given traits will persist under changing environmental conditions. Logging, slope position, and a number of habitat structure variables including canopy cover and liana abundance were significantly related to variation in bird composition. In addition to environmental variables, spatial variables also explained a significant amount of variation. However, environmental variables, particularly in relation to logging, were of greater importance in structuring variation in composition. Environmental change following logging appeared to have a pronounced effect on the feeding guild and size class structure but there was little evidence of an effect on restricted range or threatened species although certain threatened species were adversely affected. For example, species such as the terrestrial insectivore Argusianus argus and the hornbill Buceros rhinoceros, both of which are threatened, were rare or absent in recently logged forest. In contrast, undergrowth insectivores such as Orthotomus atrogularis and Trichastoma rostratum were abundant in recently logged forest and rare in unlogged forest. Logging appeared to have the strongest negative effect on hornbills, terrestrial insectivores, and canopy bark-gleaning insectivores while moderately affecting canopy foliage-gleaning insectivores and frugivores, raptors, and large species in general. In contrast, undergrowth insectivores responded positively to logging while most understory guilds showed little pronounced effect. Despite the high species richness of logged forest, logging may still have a negative impact on extant diversity by adversely affecting key ecological guilds. The sensitivity of hornbills in particular to logging disturbance may be expected to alter rainforest dynamics by seriously reducing the effective seed dispersal of associated tree species. However, logged forest represents an increasingly important habitat for most bird species and needs to be protected from further degradation. Biodiversity management within logging concessions should focus on maintaining large areas of unlogged forest and mitigating the adverse effects of logging on sensitive groups of species.     

Dominant male red junglefowl (Gallus gallus) test the dominance status of other males

In sexual selection, honest signals are maintained by a variety of mechanisms. In red junglefowl (Gallus gallus), health, condition and social status affect comb size, a well-documented predictor of female choice. The comb size of subordinate male junglefowl appears to be suppressed when in the company of other males. One hypothesis for how social status could affect ornament expression in this way involves punishment of cheaters. Under this scenario, dominant males periodically challenge similar males signalling putative high status. For subordinate males, the risk of fighting a high-ranked male could make it prohibitively costly to develop ornamentation signalling dominance. We asked if dominance signals influenced the direction of aggression by dominant males. To address this issue, we conducted experiments in which 19 dominant-acting, large-combed male junglefowl were allowed to choose to fight one of two opponents. The two potential fight opponents differed in comb size, dominance behaviour, or in both traits. In 15 of 19 trials, dominant-acting males chose to fight large-combed, dominant-acting opponents rather than small-combed, subordinate-acting opponents. This is the first demonstration that aggression of dominant male birds is directed at other males based on the display of an ornament known to be attractive to females. However, males did not discriminate between fight opponents when potential opponents differed in only one of the two status indicators (large-combed males chosen in 11 of 19 trials, dominant-acting males chosen in 10 of 19 trials).     

A Hierarchical View of Genetic Structure in the Rare Annual Plant Clarkia springvillensis

Genetic structure at several spatial scales was examined in the rare California annual, Clarkia springvillensis . Using seven isozyme-encoding loci as genetic markers, we assessed the amount and distribution of genetic variation among three populations and eight subpopulations. Total genetic variation was lower than in species with similar life history traits but equivalent to that of other endemic plants. Spatial autocorrelation showed some evidence for very limited differentiation within subpopulations at a scale of 1–2 m. The subpopulations, separated by tens of meters, were found to be more differentiated from each other ( F _sp = 0.084) on average than were populations ( F,pt = 0.017). This local genetic differentiation was not correlated with physical distance between subpopulations. The low F_pt estimates suggest that substantial gene flow is occurring among populations. However, the lack of correlation between genetic and geographic distances and the significant differentiation of subpopulations suggest that genetic drift is occurring within populations. Therefore, we believe the apparent homogeneity of populations is due to each population's gene frequencies' being an average of several divergent subpopulations. If drift is causing differentiation within populations, it may eventually cause differentiation between populations. The importance of using a hierarchical approach to evaluating genetic structure is clear. Patterns occurring at one spatial scale may not be evident at others. One should not necessarily conclude that gene flow is substantial and that the risk of genetic erosion via drift is negligible just because differentiation between populations is small; the system may not be at equilibrium. This lesson is particularly important when recent changes in climate or land use are apparent.     

Patterns of litter disappearance in a northern hardwood forest invaded by exotic earthworms.

A field study was conducted to evaluate the effects of exotic earthworm invasions on the rates of leaf litter disappearance in a northern hardwood forest in southcentral New York, USA. Specifically, we assessed whether differences in litter quality and the species composition of exotic earthworm communities affected leaf litter disappearance rates. Two forest sites with contrasting communities of exotic earthworms were selected, and disappearance rates of sugar maple and red oak litter were estimated in litter boxes in adjacent earthworm-free, transition, and earthworm-invaded plots within each site. After 540 days in the field, 1.7-3 times more litter remained in the reference plots than in the earthworm-invaded plots. In the earthworm-invaded plots, rates of disappearance of sugar maple litter were higher than for oak litter during the first year, but by the end of the experiment, the amount of sugar maple and oak litter remaining in the earthworm-invaded plots was identical within each site. The composition of the earthworm communities significantly affected the patterns of litter disappearance. In the site dominated by the anecic earthworm Lumbricus terrestris and the endogeic Aporrectodea tuberculata, the percentage of litter remaining after 540 days (approximately 17%) was significantly less than at the site dominated by L. rubellus and Octolasion tyrtaeum (approximately 27%). This difference may be attributed to the differences in feeding behavior of the two litter-feeding species: L. terrestris buries entire leaves in vertical burrows, whereas L. rubellus usually feeds on litter at the soil surface, leaving behind leaf petioles and veins. Our results showed that earthworms not only accelerate litter disappearance rates, but also may reduce the differences in decomposition rates that result from different litter qualities at later stages of decay. Similarly, our results indicate that earthworm effects on decomposition vary with earthworm community composition. Furthermore, because earthworm invasion can involve a predictable shift in community structure along invasion fronts or through time, the community dynamics of invasion are important in predicting the spatial and temporal effects of earthworm invasion on litter decomposition, especially at later stages of decay.     

Persistently highest risk areas for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome: potential sites for refugia.

Interannual variation in the number of cases of human disease caused by hantaviruses in North America has been hypothesized to reflect environmental changes that influence rodent reservoir populations. This hypothesis postulates that when cases are rare reservoir populations are geographically restricted in patches of suitable habitat. Identifying these sites, which is needed to test the hypothesis, has proven to be a challenge. Satellite imagery of the U.S. Southwest has shown associations among the likelihood of human hantaviral disease and increases in the rodent populations, as well as increased prevalence of Sin Nombre virus (SNV) in rodent populations. In this study we characterize local areas that had environmental signatures that persisted as predicted highest risk sites for human disease through much of the 1990s. These areas represent a small percentage (0.3%) of the region. Exploratory analyses indicate that these areas were not randomly distributed, but were associated with certain landscape characteristics. Characteristics of elevation, slope, aspect, and land cover were associated with persistent high risk. Using multivariate Poisson regression to control for confounding effects, sites with deciduous- or mixed-forest land cover on moderate to steep slopes (>5 degrees) above 2130 m elevation were associated with increasing numbers of years at highest risk. These are candidate locations for refugia. Sites associated with cleared ground or shrubland were less often associated with high risk compared to reference conditions. The seasonal patterns of vegetation growth in persistently high-risk areas were compared to matched locations using MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) during a time of a severe drought in the region from 2002 to 2004. Despite the drought and regardless of land cover, the NDVI in persistently highest risk areas had an early onset, with significantly higher levels of green vegetation that lasted longer than at comparable sites. These observations identify locations that can be monitored for the abundance of P. maniculatus and presence of SNV. If these sites are refugia, we predict they will be occupied by infected deer mice when other monitored sites are unoccupied.     

Sensitivity of ecological models to their climate drivers: statistical ensembles for forcing.

Global and regional numerical models for terrestrial ecosystem dynamics require fine spatial resolution and temporally complete historical climate fields as input variables. However, because climate observations are unevenly spaced and have incomplete records, such fields need to be estimated. In addition, uncertainty in these fields associated with their estimation are rarely assessed. Ecological models are usually driven with a geostatistical model's mean estimate (kriging) of these fields without accounting for this uncertainty, much less evaluating such errors in terms of their propagation in ecological simulations. We introduce a Bayesian statistical framework to model climate observations to create spatially uniform and temporally complete fields, taking into account correlation in time and space, spatial heterogeneity, lack of normality, and uncertainty about all these factors. A key benefit of the Bayesian model is that it generates uncertainty measures for the generated fields. To demonstrate this method, we reconstruct historical monthly precipitation fields (a driver for ecological models) on a fine resolution grid for a climatically heterogeneous region in the western United States. The main goal of this work is to evaluate the sensitivity of ecological models to the uncertainty associated with prediction of their climate drivers. To assess their numerical sensitivity to predicted input variables, we generate a set of ecological model simulations run using an ensemble of different versions of the reconstructed fields. We construct such an ensemble by sampling from the posterior predictive distribution of the climate field. We demonstrate that the estimated prediction error of the climate field can be very high. We evaluate the importance of such errors in ecological model experiments using an ensemble of historical precipitation time series in simulations of grassland biogeochemical dynamics with an ecological numerical model, Century. We show how uncertainty in predicted precipitation fields is propagated into ecological model results and that this propagation had different modes. Depending on output variable, the response of model dynamics to uncertainty in inputs ranged from uncertainty in outputs that matched that of inputs to those that were muted or that were biased, as well as uncertainty that was persistent in time after input errors dropped.