The influence of field-scale heterogeneity on the infiltration and entrapment of dense nonaqueous phase liquids in saturated formations

Numerical simulations are used for the systematic exploration of the migration and entrapment of dense nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) in heterogeneous formations. Ensembles of realizations of random, spatially correlated permeability fields are generated and employed in model simulations of a spill event. Statistical techniques are then used to quantify the sensitivity of model predictions to input parameters, thereby identifying the parameters or processes that may be of primary importance in the determination of organic liquid distributions in heterogeneous systems. Results of the study indicate that the most critical factors in modeling organic entrapment include the spill release rate, reliable estimates of the mean, variance, and vertical correlation scale of the formation permeability, and an accurate representation of the correlation between the capillary pressure–saturation function and the permeability. In contrast, the hydraulic gradient and cross-correlation of residual saturations with permeabilities are found to have only minor influence on organic liquid distributions in such heterogeneous formations.     

Inverse modeling to estimate LNAPL plume release timing

Methodologies are presented for dating releases of light nonaqueous phase liquids (LNAPLs) using an inverse modeling approach with simple analytical models. Models for LNAPL plume migration are presented to predict LNAPL plume velocity in the unsaturated and saturated zones as a function of basic soil and fluid properties. A relative mobility factor is introduced for LNAPL movement at the water table that depends primarily on the van Genuchten n parameter (related to the breadth of the soil pore size distribution) and the magnitude of water table fluctuations. Estimated LNAPL plume velocities compare reasonably with more rigorous numerical models, which may be used in cases where data availability warrant the greater effort entailed.Two methods of estimating release timing and its uncertainty are investigated. A direct estimation method is described that determines travel time for a single observed travel distance based on estimated soil and fluid properties. Release date uncertainty may be determined using the first order (FO) or Monte Carlo (MC) methods. The second method for estimating release date involves nonlinear parameter estimation utilizing distance vs. time measurements and other data.A case study is presented for a field site where independent estimates of release timing were obtained from a numerical modeling analysis. Release timing estimates based on direct inversion of the analytical timing model agree well with the numerical analysis. Results for a second field site indicate that release date confidence limits estimated by the FO method, assuming log-normally distributed travel times, are close to values determined by the MC method, which makes no assumption regarding the form of the travel time probability distribution.Results for a hypothetical problem indicate that LNAPL velocity and travel time may be accurately estimated if sufficient data on travel distance vs. time are available. Incorporating prior information on relevant soil and fluid properties into the objective function reduces the uncertainty in release date if prior estimates are accurate. However, biased prior estimates may lead to over- or underestimation of release date uncertainty. Simultaneous estimation of soil and fluid properties and release date is possible if prior information is available to condition the parameter estimates.     

Population dynamics models based on cumulative density dependent feedback: A link to the logistic growth curve and a test for symmetry using aphid data

Density dependent feedback, based on cumulative population size, has been advocated to explain and mathematically characterize “boom and bust” population dynamics. Such feedback results in a bell-shaped population trajectory of the population density. Here, we note that this trajectory is mathematically described by the logistic probability density function. Consequently, the cumulative population follows a time trajectory that has the same shape as the cumulative logistic function. Thus, the Pearl–Verhulst logistic equation, widely used as a phenomenological model for density dependent population growth, can be interpreted as a model for cumulative rather than instantaneous population. We extend the cumulative density dependent differential equation model to allow skew in the bell-shaped population trajectory and present a simple statistical test for skewness. Model properties are exemplified by fitting population trajectories of the soybean aphid, Aphis glycines. The linkage between the mechanistic underpinnings of the logistic probability density function and cumulative distribution function models could open up new avenues for analyzing population data.     

Concentration ratios for small mammals collected from the exposed sediments of a 137Cs contaminated reservoir

(137)Cs concentration ratios were computed for small mammals collected from the dried sediments of a partially drained, contaminated reservoir. Soil (137)Cs activity concentrations were heterogeneous on small and large spatial scales and had a geometric mean of 253 (range 23-2110) Bq/kg dry weight. Mean (137)Cs activity concentrations in composite cotton rat Sigmodon hispidus and cotton mouse Peromyscus gossypinus samples averaged 2480 (range 556-6670) and 471 (range 96-1000) Bq/kg whole body dry weight, respectively. About 50% of the variance in cotton rat tissue (137)Cs activity was explained by variation in soil (137)Cs activity. Soil-to-animal dry weight concentration ratios averaged 6.0 for cotton rats and 1.2 for cotton mice and were generally similar to (137)Cs concentration ratios for herbivorous, homeothermic animals from other contaminated ecosystems. In the RESRAD-BIOTA dose model, the default wet-weight concentration ratio for (137)Cs in terrestrial animals is 110 resulting in an estimate of internal and external radiation doses to terrestrial biota that is 44 times more than the dose calculated with the actual measured wet-weight concentration ratio for cotton rats (1.6). These results show that site-specific concentration ratios can significantly affect the estimation of dose.     

Considering the positive possibilities of leader political behavior

This Incubator presents an overview of a new construct, leader political support, which captures the positive possibilities of leaders' political behavior. A discussion of why leader political support may seem paradoxical is included, as well as a presentation of the need for its consideration and the research possibilities it provides. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of ocean acidification on marine shelled molluscs

Over the next century, elevated quantities of atmospheric CO₂ are expected to penetrate into the oceans, causing a reduction in pH (?0.3/?0.4 pH unit in the surface ocean) and in the concentration of carbonate ions (so-called ocean acidification). Of growing concern are the impacts that this will have on marine and estuarine organisms and ecosystems. Marine shelled molluscs, which colonized a large latitudinal gradient and can be found from intertidal to deep-sea habitats, are economically and ecologically important species providing essential ecosystem services including habitat structure for benthic organisms, water purification and a food source for other organisms. The effects of ocean acidification on the growth and shell production by juvenile and adult shelled molluscs are variable among species and even within the same species, precluding the drawing of a general picture. This is, however, not the case for pteropods, with all species tested so far, being negatively impacted by ocean acidification. The blood of shelled molluscs may exhibit lower pH with consequences for several physiological processes (e.g. respiration, excretion, etc.) and, in some cases, increased mortality in the long term. While fertilization may remain unaffected by elevated pCO₂, embryonic and larval development will be highly sensitive with important reductions in size and decreased survival of larvae, increases in the number of abnormal larvae and an increase in the developmental time. There are big gaps in the current understanding of the biological consequences of an acidifying ocean on shelled molluscs. For instance, the natural variability of pH and the interactions of changes in the carbonate chemistry with changes in other environmental stressors such as increased temperature and changing salinity, the effects of species interactions, as well as the capacity of the organisms to acclimate and/or adapt to changing environmental conditions are poorly described.     

Valuing snorkeling visits to the Florida Keys with stated and revealed preference models

Coastal coral reefs, especially in the Florida Keys, are declining at a disturbing rate. Marine ecologists and reef scientists have emphasized the importance of establishing nonmarket values of coral reefs to assess the cost effectiveness of coral reef management and remediation programs. The purpose of this paper is to develop a travel cost-contingent valuation model of demand for trips to the Florida Keys focusing on willingness to pay (WTP) to preserve the current water quality and health of the coral reefs. The stated and revealed preference models allow the marginal valuation of recreationists to adjust depending on current and planned trip commitments in valuing nonmarginal policy changes in recreational opportunities. The integrated model incorporates key factors for establishing baseline amenity values for tourist dive sites, including perceptions of reef quality and dive conditions, the role of substitute sites, and the quality and availability of tourist facilities and recreation opportunities. The travel cost and WTP model differ in identifying critical variables and provide insight into the adjustment of trip decisions across alternative destination sites and the valuation of trips. In contrast to the travel cost model, a measure of the availability of substitute sites and total recreation activities does not have a significant impact on WTP valuations reported by snorkelers. Snorkelers engage in a relatively focused set of activities, suggesting that these recreationists may not shift expenditures to other sites or other recreation activities in the Florida Keys when confronted with increased access costs for the snorkeling experience.     

Transport and fate of nitrate in a glacial outwash aquifer in relation to ground water age,land use practices,and redox processes

A combination of ground water modeling, chemical and dissolved gas analyses, and chlorofluorocarbon age dating of water was used to determine the relation between changes in agricultural practices, and NO3- concentrations in ground water of a glacial outwash aquifer in west-central Minnesota. The results revealed a redox zonation throughout the saturated zone with oxygen reduction occurring near the water table, NO3- reduction immediately below it, and then a large zone of ferric iron reduction, with a small area of sulfate (SO4(2-)) reduction and methanogenesis (CH4) near the end of the transsect. Analytical and NETPATH modeling results supported the hypothesis that organic carbon served as the electron donor for the redox reactions. Denitrification rates were quite small, 0.005 to 0.047 mmol NO3- yr(-1), and were limited by the small amounts of organic carbon, 0.01 to 1.45%. In spite of the organic carbon limitation, denitrification was virtually complete because residence time is sufficient to allow even slow processes to reach completion. Ground water sample ages showed that maximum residence times were on the order of 50 to 70 yr. Reconstructed NO3- concentrations, estimated from measured NO3- and dissolved N gas showed that NO3- concentrations have been increasing in the aquifer since the 1940s, and have been above the 714 micromol L(-1) maximum contaminant level at most sites since the mid- to late-1960s. This increase in NO3- has been accompanied by a corresponding increase in agricultural use of fertilizer, identified as the major source of NO3- to the aquifer.     

The role of Raman spectroscopy in the analytical chemistry of potable water

Advances in instrumentation are making Raman spectroscopy the tool of choice for an increasing number of chemical applications. For example, many recalcitrant industrial process monitoring problems have been solved in recent years with in-line Raman spectrometers. Raman is attractive for these applications for many reasons, including remote non-invasive sampling, minimal sample preparation and tolerance of water. To a lesser extent, Raman spectroscopy is beginning to play a significant role in environmental analysis for the same reasons. At present, the environmental applications typically apply only to the most contaminated situations due to the still relatively high limits of detection. However, some emerging sampling technologies hold out the promise that Raman may soon be more widely applicable to the analytical chemistry of potable water. Herein we discuss these recent advances, summarize some examples of environmental applications to aqueous systems and suggest avenues of future developments that we expect to be most useful for potable water analysis. Also, a simplified, but detailed, theory of normal Raman scattering is presented. While resonance-enhanced Raman spectroscopy, surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy and non-linear Raman techniques are briefly discussed, their theories and instrumental configurations are not addressed. Also, this article deals primarily with the modern dispersive Raman experiment (as opposed to the Fourier transform Raman experiment), because it seems most suited for potable water analysis. The goal of this article is to give the environmental scientist with no specialized knowledge of the topic just enough theory and background to evaluate the utility of this rapidly developing analytical tool.     

Assessment of the Hygiene and Sanitation Campaign in Cameroon

This paper is an evaluation of a nationwide hygiene and sanitation campaign officially launched in Cameroon in the first quarter of the year 2000. It draws on Environmental Management and Planning concepts to appraise the planning and implementation process. The immediate outcome of the project was observed to be a success story as unattractive buildings were either re-furbished, or demolished, giving a face-lift to many towns, decongesting many areas, improving drainage, and instilling some degree of sanitation. It goes further to make the point that no effective monitoring or follow-up structures has made the situation worse, and recommends that future environmental policies should reflect a participatory approach.