Synthesis of effects in four Arctic subregions

An assessment of impacts on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems has emphasized geographical variability in responses of species and ecosystems to environmental change. This variability is usually associated with north-south gradients in climate, biodiversity, vegetation zones, and ecosystem structure and function. It is clear, however, that significant east-west variability in environment, ecosystem structure and function, environmental history, and recent climate variability is also important. Some areas have cooled while others have become warmer. Also, east-west differences between geographical barriers of oceans, archipelagos and mountains have contributed significantly in the past to the ability of species and vegetation zones to relocate in response to climate changes, and they have created the isolation necessary for genetic differentiation of populations and biodiversity hot-spots to occur. These barriers will also affect the ability of species to relocate during projected future warming. To include this east-west variability and also to strike a balance between overgeneralization and overspecialization, the ACIA identified four major sub regions based on large-scale differences in weather and climate-shaping factors. Drawing on information, mostly model output that can be related to the four ACIA subregions, it is evident that geographical barriers to species re-location, particularly the distribution of landmasses and separation by seas, will affect the northwards shift in vegetation zones. The geographical constraints--or facilitation--of northward movement of vegetation zones will affect the future storage and release of carbon, and the exchange of energy and water between biosphere and atmosphere. In addition, differences in the ability of vegetation zones to re-locate will affect the biodiversity associated with each zone while the number of species threatened by climate change varies greatly between subregions with a significant hot-spot in Beringia. Overall, the subregional synthesis demonstrates the difficulty of generalizing projections of responses of ecosystem structure and function, species loss, and biospheric feedbacks to the climate system for the whole Arctic region and implies a need for a far greater understanding of the spatial variability in the responses of terrestrial arctic ecosystems to climate change.     

Major challenges of integrating agriculture into climate change mitigation policy frameworks

Taking the European Union (EU) as a case study, we simulate the application of non-uniform national mitigation targets to achieve a sectoral reduction in agricultural non-carbon dioxide (CO₂) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Scenario results show substantial impacts on EU agricultural production, in particular, the livestock sector. Significant increases in imports and decreases in exports result in rather moderate domestic consumption impacts but induce production increases in non-EU countries that are associated with considerable emission leakage effects. The results underline four major challenges for the general integration of agriculture into national and global climate change mitigation policy frameworks and strategies, as they strengthen requests for (1) a targeted but flexible implementation of mitigation obligations at national and global level and (2) the need for a wider consideration of technological mitigation options. The results also indicate that a globally effective reduction in agricultural emissions requires (3) multilateral commitments for agriculture to limit emission leakage and may have to (4) consider options that tackle the reduction in GHG emissions from the consumption side.     

Lost benefits and carbon uptake by protection of Indian plantations

There is a range of problems in assessing how protection of a specific forest to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) affect global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper shows how knowledge and information about the biophysical characteristics of forests can be combined with theories of forest management and economic behaviour to derive the impacts on global emissions of REDD+. A modelling experiment from India, where 10% of the forest plantations in eight different regions are protected, shows that the biophysical characteristics of forests are decisive for the global impacts on emissions. In regions with slow-growing forests, agents in the non-protected forests are able to increase their output significantly to fill the demand from the protected forests. This opportunity is strictly limited in regions with fast-growing forests. Therefore, prices increase far more in regions with fast-growing forests than in slow-growing forests. Over time, the markets for Indian forestry products contribute to reduce the resulting price differences across regions. When the carbon uptake from protected forests approaches zero, the leakage of emissions to other Indian forests is between 20 and 40%. Only a small part of this is international leakage. Combining different models also helps to identify knowledge gaps, and to distinguish gaps that potentially may be filled with data and new knowledge, and gaps due to different angling of modelling biophysical processes and modelling of economic behaviour.     

Prevalence and concentrations of drugs in older suspected drugged drivers

Objective: Older drivers are somewhat more likely to be involved in car crashes than middle-aged drivers but less likely to be involved than younger drivers. This study aimed to assess the extent of drug use in older suspected drunk and drugged drivers, with respect to which drugs were detected and at which concentrations.

Methods: Blood samples from older suspected drunk and drugged drivers taken between February 1, 2012, and May 22, 2013, were identified from the database at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health and were retrospectively analyzed for a broad repertoire of drugs relevant for impairment. The prevalence of different drugs among the suspected drunk and drugged drivers was studied. Regarding drug concentrations, the findings in older drivers (>65 years) were compared to a reference group of apprehended drivers aged 20–40 years.

Results: Four hundred and ten older suspected drunk and drugged drivers were included. Any drug (including ethanol) was detected in 92% of blood samples, and ethanol was detected in 81%. Benzodiazepines were found in 15% of the older drivers and z-hypnotics (zopiclone or zolpidem) were detected in 13%. The most frequent single legal drugs found in blood samples taken from older impaired drivers were zopiclone (9.8%) and diazepam (9.3%). Regarding drug combinations, older drivers used a mean number of 1.4 drugs, and 20% of ethanol-positive cases showed at least one other drug. High drug concentrations of clonazepam and diazepam were more frequently seen in the younger group.

Conclusions: This study showed that drugs were detected in the vast majority of older drivers suspected for drunk or drugged driving. Ethanol was the most frequent drug detected, followed by zopiclone and diazepam. Older drivers combine drugs to a lesser degree than younger drivers, but their combination of ethanol and other drugs represents a considerable traffic risk. Lower concentrations of benzodiazepines are seen in older compared to younger drivers.     

Assessment of risks for adaptation to climate change: the case of land-slides

This paper describes how relatively detailed knowledge about probabilities of natural hazards can be used to make decisions to develop areas and control the risk within hazard zones. The assessment serves two purposes. First, it shows how information can support decisions. Second, decision criteria put leads on what information is required. This is helpful to identify unavailable information. We show by an example from a land-slide prone area in Norway how a relatively reliable estimate of the probability of slides ends up in a rather uncertain estimate of the risk. Uncertainty about the risk represented by natural hazards imply great challenges to the development of adaptation policies to meet climate change, but they are required. We develop a simplified criterion for optimal adaptation, and estimate the added social value required to defend development in hazard prone areas instead of developing a risk-free alternative. The value is estimated between 0 and 0.40 Euros per Euro invested in the case area, depending on type of slide, category of asset and other costs that occur in the wake of slides.     

Forecasting the e ects of EU policy measures on the nitrate pollution of groundwater and surface waters

We used the interdisciplinary model network REGFLUD to predict the actual mean nitrate concentration in percolation water at the scale of the Weser river basin (Germany) using an area di erentiated (100 m 100 m) approach. REGFLUD combines the agro-economic model RAUMIS for estimating nitrogen surpluses and the hydrological models GROWA/DENUZ for assessing the nitrate leaching from the soil. For areas showing predicted nitrate concentrations in percolation water above the European Union (EU) groundwater quality standard of 50 mg NO3-N/L, e ective agri-environmental reduction measures need to be derived and implemented to improve groundwater and surface water quality by 2015. The e ects of already implemented agricultural policy are quantified by a baseline scenario projecting the N-surpluses from agricultural sector to 2015. The REGFLUD model is used to estimate the e ects of this scenario concerning groundwater and surface water pollution by nitrate. From the results of the model analysis the needs for additional measures can be derived in terms of required additional N-surplus reduction and in terms of regional prioritization of measures. Research work will therefore directly support the implementation of the Water Framework Directive of the European Union in the Weser basin.     

Associations between driver training, determinants of risky driving behaviour and crash involvement

The core aim of the study is to examine associations between formal and informal practical driver training as well as driving experience on the one hand and young drivers’ safety attitudes, self-assessment of driving ability and self-reported driver behaviour on the other hand. An additional aim is to examine the associations between attitudes, self-assessment and behaviour on the one hand and crash involvement on the other hand. The results are based on a self-completion questionnaire survey conducted among a representative sample of Norwegian drivers aged 18–20 years (n = 1419). The results showed that there were small yet significant associations between driver training, on the one hand and traffic safety attitudes and risky driving behaviour on the other hand. The amount of formal driver training was negatively associated with the respondents’ evaluation of their driving skills; although the amount of lay instruction was positively associated with such self-evaluation. The results also showed that attitudes as well as self-assessment of driving ability were significantly associated with self-reported risk behaviour. This was especially true for attitudes related to rule violations. There was a strong association between crash involvement and exposure (measured as months holding a licence). Young novice drivers’ crash involvement seems stronger associated with driving skills (manifested as self-assessment of driving ability) than safety attitudes and self-reported driver behaviour. The consequences of the results for driver training and accident prevention are discussed.     

An investigation of driver attitudes and behaviour in rural and urban areas in Norway

This study aimed to investigate differences in self-reported driver attitudes and behaviour in rural, peri-urban and urban areas in Norway. Age, gender and education were controlled for. An additional aim was to investigate the relations between demographics, personality variables, driver attitudes and behaviour in the complete sample and across the different geographical areas. To obtain these aims, a questionnaire was distributed by mail to a randomly selected sample from the Norwegian population registry (N = 6203). Of the distributed questionnaires the response rate was 30%. Differences in attitudes and self-reported behaviour were significant due to type of geographical area. However, the results showed that gender, age and education caused stronger differences than type of geographical area in attitudes to driving and driver behaviour. SEM-analysis failed to reject the notion that the strength of the structural relations was similar in the geographical areas. This could imply that demographic characteristics, and their compositions in rural, peri-urban and urban areas, are more important for differences in driver behaviour and attitudes than characteristics of the traffic environment.     

Growth dynamics of Saccharina latissima (Laminariales,Phaeophyceae) in Aarhus Bay,Denmark, and along the species’ distribution range

Growth dynamics of Saccharina latissima in a Danish embayment (56°03.793N, 10°16.148E) were investigated through an annual cycle (March 1999–March 2000) and related to patterns found in previous studies covering the distribution range of the species. The kelps exhibited meristematic growth as well as distal tissue loss all year around. Elongation rate peaked in spring (March–May, 0.75 cm day^?1), whereas maximum biomass growth occurred in May–July at higher insolation. S. latissima accumulated nitrogen (N) in November–March, when ambient N levels were high and the fast growth in March–July was followed by a depletion of these reserves. Light regimes and seasonal fluctuations of nutrients were, thus, major factors explaining the seasonal growth pattern of S. latissima in this temperate bay. Differences in light and exposure along depth gradients affected the growth, loss and storage product dynamics. High losses of N and carbon (C) through summer abscission of distal tissue question the efficiency of translocation, especially at shallower depths, where losses are accelerated by, e.g., high temperature. A large-scale comparison further highlighted that warming advanced the timing, increased the level of peak growth and also seemed to expand the growth period. Growth rates of the studied Danish population fell in the low end of the range for similar latitudes and temperatures, probably due to sub-optimal salinities (avg. 23.3 psu) in combination with periodically high summer temperatures (max. 21.1 °C).