Forest fires and adaptation options in Europe

This paper presents a quantitative assessment of adaptation options in the context of forest fires in Europe under projected climate change. A standalone fire model (SFM) based on a state-of-the-art large-scale forest fire modelling algorithm is used to explore fuel removal through prescribed burnings and improved fire suppression as adaptation options. The climate change projections are provided by three climate models reflecting the SRES A2 scenario. The SFM’s modelled burned areas for selected test countries in Europe show satisfying agreement with observed data coming from two different sources (European Forest Fire Information System and Global Fire Emissions Database). Our estimation of the potential increase in burned areas in Europe under “no adaptation” scenario is about 200 % by 2090 (compared with 2000–2008). The application of prescribed burnings has the potential to keep that increase below 50 %. Improvements in fire suppression might reduce this impact even further, e.g. boosting the probability of putting out a fire within a day by 10 % would result in about a 30 % decrease in annual burned areas. By taking more adaptation options into consideration, such as using agricultural fields as fire breaks, behavioural changes, and long-term options, burned areas can be potentially reduced further than projected in our analysis.     

Understanding non-compliance in small-scale fisheries: Shark fishing in Myanmar’s Myeik Archipelago

Achieving fisheries compliance is challenging in contexts where enforcement capacity is limited and the incentives for rule-breaking are strong. This challenge is exemplified in Myanmar, where an active shark fishery exists despite a nationwide ban on targeted shark fishing. We used the Kipling method (5W1H) to gather a complete story of non-compliance in five small-scale fishing communities in the Myeik Archipelago. Among 144 fishers surveyed, 49% were aware of the nationwide ban. Shark fishers (24%) tended to be younger individuals who did not own a boat and perceived shark fishing to be prevalent. Compliant fishers were motivated by a fear of sharks and lack of capacity (equipment, knowledge), whereas food and income were cited as key motivations for non-compliance. The results of our study emphasize that in resource-dependent communities, improving compliance for effective shark conservation may require addressing broader issues of poverty, food security and the lack of alternatives.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01400-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Respiratory effects of household exposures to tobacco smoke and gas cooking on nonsmokers

The records of 708 nonsmoking white adult residents of Washington County, MD, who had participated in two of respiratory symptoms were analyzed to evaluate the effects of exposure at home to two potential sources of indoor air pollution: cigarette smoking by other household members, and use of gas as a cooking fuel. After adjustment for the effects of age, sex, socioeconomic level, occupational exposure to dust, and years of residence in household, the presence of one or more smokers in the household was only suggestively associated with a higher frequency of chronic phlegm and impaired ventilatory function defined as FEV₁ < 80% predicted. The use for cooking was associated with a significantly increased frequency of chronic cough and a significantly greater percentage with impaired ventilatory function as measured both by FEV₁ < 80% predicted and by FEV₁/FVC < 70%.     

Markets and environmental management with a storable pollutant

Lee [J. Environ. Econ. Manag., in press] investigates possibilities where pollutants may be stored for a period of time and later released into the environment when adverse effects are minimal. The treatment and storage of pollutants before their release into the environment is a crucial part of many abatement programs. Surprisingly, emission charges will not induce optimal abatement when storage is possible. This occurs because the firms' response to the dynamic tax is indeterminant. We suggest alternative controls, whereby rights to emit pollutants are sold competitively and demonstrate that markets provide incentives for the optimal generation-storage-emission of pollution by firms. In deriving this result an important difference between markets and taxes is revealed. With markets there is still indeterminacy at the firm level, but the aggregate response of all firms is dictated by market forces that insure pollution is reduced by some desired amount.     

Statistical Evaluation of Variables Affecting Occurrence of Hydrocarbons in Aquifers Used for Public Supply,California

The variables affecting the occurrence of hydrocarbons in aquifers used for public supply in California were assessed based on statistical evaluation of three large statewide datasets; gasoline oxygenates also were analyzed for comparison with hydrocarbons. Benzene is the most frequently detected (1.7%) compound among 17 hydrocarbons analyzed at generally low concentrations (median detected concentration 0.024 μg/l) in groundwater used for public supply in California; methyl tert‐butyl ether (MTBE) is the most frequently detected (5.8%) compound among seven oxygenates analyzed (median detected concentration 0.1 μg/l). At aquifer depths used for public supply, hydrocarbons and MTBE rarely co‐occur and are generally related to different variables; in shallower groundwater, co‐occurrence is more frequent and there are similar relations to the density or proximity of potential sources. Benzene concentrations are most strongly correlated with reducing conditions, regardless of groundwater age and depth. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that benzene and other hydrocarbons detected in old, deep, and/or brackish groundwater result from geogenic sources of oil and gas. However, in recently recharged (since ~1950), generally shallower groundwater, higher concentrations and detection frequencies of benzene and hydrocarbons were associated with a greater proportion of commercial land use surrounding the well, likely reflecting effects of anthropogenic sources, particularly in combination with reducing conditions.     

Lessons from seabird conservation in Alaskan longline fisheries

Although bycatch of seabirds and other long-lived species is a critical conservation issue in world fisheries, case studies documenting significant reductions in the mortality of these low-productivity species in a fishery are rare. We studied progress toward seabird conservation in the Alaskan longline fisheries, one of the largest and most diverse demersal fisheries. We generated annual seabird bycatch rates in 4 target fisheries and all fisheries combined from 23 years of fisheries observer data. We used 0-inflated negative binomial models to evaluate variables influencing seabird bycatch per unit effort (BPUE) in 2 target fisheries. Following adoption of streamer lines, at first voluntarily and then mandatorily, seabird BPUE was reduced by 77–90%, preventing mortality of thousands of birds per year. Despite this, BPUE increased significantly in 2 of 4 target fisheries since streamer lines were adopted. Although night setting yielded significant reductions (74–97%) in seabird BPUE and significant increases (7–11%) in fish catch per unit effort over daytime setting, nighttime setting increased the BPUE of Northern Fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis) by 40% and nontarget fish species by 5–17%. Thus, best practices to prevent seabird mortalities in longline fisheries varied by species assemblage and fishery. Our results inform global efforts toward fisheries bycatch reduction by illustrating that successful conservation requires fishery-specific solutions, strong industry support, constant vigilance in analysis and reporting observer data, and ongoing outreach to fleets, especially to vessels with anomalously high BPUE.     

Radiological impact of coal-fired power generation

A radiological impact assessment was carried out at the 4000 MW Nanticoke Thermal Generating Station on the north shore of Lake Erie and at an ash disposal site in Metropolitan Toronto, both operated by Ontario Hydro. Analyses were performed on feed coal, fly ash and bottom ash and on samples of air filters, precipitation, water, soil and vegetation in the vicinity of the generating station. The measured radionuclide levels in the vicinity of the generating station showed no evidence of enhancement from station emissions. There were no indications that leaching of radionuclides or emanation of radon gas from ash disposal sites would be a problem. There was evidence, however, of higher radionuclide concentrations on the finer ash particles. Furthermore, the use of fly ash in building materials could lead to enhanced radiation levels. Atmospheric dispersion and radiation dose calculations were also carried out. Predicted concentrations in air were all less than 1% of background values. The committed dose equivalent from one year of operation was estimated to be 0·27 μSv at the site boundary and 0·11 μSv at 10 km east of the site.     

A new RFLP marker,SP282, at the btk locus for genetic analysis in X-linked agammaglobulinaemia families

X-linked agammaglobulinaemia is an inherited recessive disease in which the primary defect lies in the failure of pre-B cells to develop into mature circulating B cells, due to a defective B-cell cytoplasmic tyrosine kinase (btk). For this study we introduced a new RFLP marker, SP282, which is tightly linked to the XLA locus. In conjunction with the marker DXS178, SP282 was used to identify a carrier female and predict her male offspring to be normal. Subsequently the fetus was shown to have a normal number of circulating B cells, and at 2·5 years of age, the non-affected phenotype of the child was confirmed.