The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change: Part II—Integrating impacts with adaptive capacity

In the first paper in this series [Nelson, R., Kokic, P., Crimp, S., Martin, P., Meinke, H., Howden, S.M. (2010, this issue)], we concluded that hazard/impact modelling needs to be integrated with holistic measures of adaptive capacity in order to provide policy-relevant insights into the multiple and emergent dimensions of vulnerability. In this paper, we combine hazard/impact modelling with an holistic measure of adaptive capacity to analyse the vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change. Bioeconomic modelling was used to model the exposure and sensitivity of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change. Rural livelihoods analysis was used as a conceptual framework to construct a composite index of adaptive capacity using farm survey data. We then show how this integrated measure of vulnerability provides policy-relevant insights into the constraints and options for building adaptive capacity in rural communities. In the process, we show that relying on hazard/impact modelling alone can lead to entirely erroneous conclusions about the vulnerability of rural communities, with potential to significantly misdirect policy intervention. We provide a preliminary assessment of which Australian rural communities are vulnerable to climate variability and change, and reveal a complex set of interacting environmental, economic and social factors contributing to vulnerability.     

Differential survival rates in a declining and an invasive farmland gastropod species

Individual marking by using transponders represents a promising tool to further investigate causes of population trends of farmland invertebrates and the dynamics of farmland biodiversity. Once common in agricultural fields the slug Arion rufus is now restricted to forests, whereas the closely related and similar Arion lusitanicus recently built up high populations. Here, it was tested whether (1) transponder tagging combined with artificial shelters for recapturing is a suitable approach for quantifying adult survival of farmland gastropods under real field conditions, (2) whether captive bred and wild A. lusitanicus differ in survival, and (3) whether in agricultural fields the declining slug A. rufus shows reduced survival rates compared to the invasive slug A. lusitanicus. One hundred and thirty transponder-tagged slugs were released and individual-based mark-recapture models were performed. Individual marking by using transponders proved to be a successful method for quantifying survival rates of the slugs. The favoured model showed no differences in survival or encounter rates between captive bred and wild A. lusitanicus. A. rufus showed significantly reduced survival rates compared to A. lusitanicus coinciding with their population trends in farmland areas. This might be due to differential susceptibility to habitat degradation, differential predation rates or promotion of the invasive competitor species. A further decrease of A. rufus in agricultural landscapes is expected.     

1,2,4-三氯苯矿化菌的鉴定与功能分析

采用同位素示踪法从氯苯污染土壤中筛选到能高效降解1,2,4-三氯苯(1,2,4-TCB)为CO₂的细菌E3和F2,根据其表型特征、16S rDNA序列和荧光原位杂交(FISH)分析,鉴定E3和F2为博德特氏菌（Bordetella sp.）.E3和F2的16S rDNA序列相似性为100%;它们与菌株Bordetella sp. QJ2-5同源性最高,与Bordetella petrii(GDH030510)最接近,同源性分别为100%和99.4%.E3和F2能在含1,2,4-TCB的无机盐培养基中彻底降解1,2,4-TCB生成CO₂,30 d降解率达到90%以上,其中58%和46%矿化为CO₂,同时形成一定量的微生物生物量.     

Can ECOPATH with ECOSIM enhance models of radionuclide flows in food webs? An example for 14C in a coastal food web in the Baltic Sea

In this study it was evaluated whether the ECOPATH with ECOSIM software could be used as a platform to facilitate the construction of models and study of transport and accumulation of radionuclides in aquatic food webs. The evaluation was based upon a food web model of carbon (C) and carbon-14 ((14)C) flow for a coastal area in the Baltic Sea, the ECOPATH, the ECOSIM and the ECOTRACE models. The original carbon flows and assumptions were easily incorporated into the ECOPATH and ECOSIM modelling environment. The new model was also well suited to drive a (14)C flow model (ECOTRACE) for each of the organisms included. ECOTRACE estimated steady-state concentrations of (14)C that were between 73 and 142% of the original flows. The results clearly show that there is great potential for a successful development of this approach for integrating scientific knowledge about food webs and radioecological models for aquatic systems.     

Reproductive performance and organochlorine pollutants in an Antarctic marine top predator: the south polar skua

Despite low levels of organochlorine contaminants (OCs) in Antarctic biota, some compounds may exceed the levels in equivalent Arctic species, and previous studies have found biochemical evidence of pollutant exposure in south polar skuas (Catharacta maccormicki), a common marine top predator in the region. In this study we examined relationships between fitness components (fecundity and adult return rate between breeding seasons) and concentrations of OCs in this species. In 65 nests, both males and females were caught, and using principal component analyses (PCA) we produced composite measurements (PC1 and PC2) of six highly correlated OCs measured in blood samples. Although the concentrations of OC were below those documented to have reproductive effects in other aquatic birds, we found that the eggs of females with high levels of OCs in the blood hatched later, and their chicks were in poorer condition at hatching, than females with low OC levels. Thus OCs may delay reproduction and reduce foetal growth in the skuas. However, there was no relationship between the parents' OC residues and the occurrence of non-viable eggs, although the proportion of nests containing non-viable eggs was high (47%). Moreover, there were no significant relationships between OCs and reproductive variables in males, even if males had higher OC levels than females, and no associations between OCs and adult return rate between breeding seasons.     

The Hirudo medicinalis species complex

Recently, Hildebrandt and Lemke (Naturwissenschaften 98:995–1008, 2011) argued that the taxonomic status of the three European medicinal leeches, Hirudo medicinalis Linnaeus 1758, Hirudo verbana Carena 1820, and Hirudo orientalis Utevsky and Trontelj (Parasitol Res 98:61?66, 2005) is “questionable” since “all three species interbreed in the laboratory”. This statement is in conflict with data published by Elliott and Kutschera (Freshwater Reviews 4:21?41, 2011), indicating that these leeches, which are reciprocally copulating hermaphrodites, represent reproductively isolated biospecies. Here, I summarize evidence indicating that these three European taxa, plus the North African “dragon leech” (Hirudo troctina Johnson 1816), must be interpreted as a complex of closely related species, and that the economically most important taxon H. verbana is polymorphic.     

Calibration and uncertainty analysis of a simple model of silica-limited diatom growth in the Elbe River

A simple Lagrangian water quality model was designed to investigate the hypothesis of sporadic silica limitations of diatom growth in the lower Elbe River in Germany. For each fluid parcel a limited reservoir of silica was specified to be consumed by diatoms. The model's simplicity notwithstanding, a set of six selected model parameters could not be fully identified from existing observations at one station. After the introduction of prior knowledge of the ranges of meaningful parameter values, calibration of the over-parameterised model manifested itself primarily in the generation of posterior parameter covariances. Estimations of the covariance matrix based on (a) second order partial derivatives of a quadratic cost function at its optimum and (b) Monte Carlo simulations exploring the whole space of parameter values gave consistent results. Diagonalisation of the covariance matrix yielded two linear parameter combinations that were most effectively controlled by data from periods with and without lack of silica, respectively. The two parameter combinations were identified as the essential inputs that govern the successful simulation of intermittently decreasing chlorophyll a concentrations in summer. A satisfactory simulation of the pronounced chlorophyll a minimum in spring, by contrast, was found to be beyond the means of the simple model.     

Influence of male harassment and female competition on female feeding behaviour in a sexual–asexual mating complex of mollies (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Poecilia mexicana</Emphasis>, <Emphasis Type="Italic">P. formosa</Emphasis>)

Differential interests between the sexes regarding the number of copulations can result in sexual harassment. Hence, females may have less time available for foraging. Male sexual harassment often leads to fitness reduction in females. We used the mating complex of the bisexual fish Poecilia mexicana and the co-occurring all-female Poecilia formosa to study sexual harassment and its incurred cost on female feeding efficiency. P. formosa is a sperm-dependent parthenogen that requires mating with host males to induce embryogenesis, but the male genes are not used. We therefore predicted P. mexicana males to prefer conspecific females. Hence, costs of male sexual harassment should not occur in unisexuals. While P. formosa are at a disadvantage compared to P. mexicana females due to male mate choice (leading to sperm limitation), this could be traded-off by suffering less from sexual harassment. In our experiment, we found males to direct significantly more pre-copulatory mating behaviour towards conspecific females, whereas actual mating attempts did not differ between species. Contrary to our prediction, both types of females started feeding later and spent less time feeding in the presence of a male partner compared to the time spent feeding with another female, suggesting that females of both species suffer from male harassment. The focal females' feeding time declined with increasing body size of the female competitor, and the same pattern was found when a male was present. We discuss that—besides sexual harassment—other factors such as food competition and female mate choice may affect female feeding efficiency.     

Response of complex food webs to realistic extinction sequences

Although an ecosystem's response to biodiversity loss depends on the order in which species are lost, the extinction sequences generally used to explore such responses in food webs have been ecologically unrealistic. We investigate how several extinction orders affect the minimum number of secondary extinctions expected within pelagic food webs from 34 temperate freshwater lakes. An ecologically plausible extinction order is derived from the geographically nested pattern of species composition among the lakes and is corroborated by species' pH tolerances. Simulations suggest that lake communities are remarkably robust to this realistic extinction order and highly sensitive to the reverse sequence of species loss. This sensitivity is not well explained by the known sensitivity of networks to the loss of highly connected species but appears to be better explained by our observation that trophic specialists preferentially consume widely distributed species at low risk of extinction. Our results highlight an important aspect of community organization that may help to maintain biodiversity amidst changing environments.