Scenario Development as a Basis for Formulating a Research Program on Future Agriculture: A Methodological Approach

To increase the awareness of society to the challenges of global food security, we developed five contrasting global and European scenarios for 2050 and used these to identify important issues for future agricultural research. Using a scenario development method known as morphological analysis, scenarios were constructed that took economic, political, technical, and environmental factors into account. With the scenarios as a starting point future challenges were discussed and research issues and questions were identified in an interactive process with stakeholders and researchers. Based on the outcome of this process, six socioeconomic and biophysical overarching challenges for future agricultural were formulated and related research issues identified. The outcome was compared with research priorities generated in five other research programs. In comparison, our research questions focus more on societal values and the role of consumers in influencing agricultural production, as well as on policy formulation and resolving conflicting goals, areas that are presently under-represented in agricultural research. The partly new and more interdisciplinary research priorities identified in Future Agriculture compared to other programs analyzed are likely a result of the methodological approach used, combining scenarios and interaction between stakeholders and researchers.     

A Dynamic Simulation Model of Land-Use, Population, and Rural Livelihoods in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

The dynamic interactions between society and land resources have to be taken into account when planning and managing natural resources. A computer model, using STELLA software, was developed through active participation of purposively selected farm households from different wealth groups, age groups and gender within a rural community and some members of Kebelle council. The aim of the modeling was to study the perceived changes in land-use, population and livelihoods over the next 30 years and to improve our understanding of the interactions among them. The modeling output is characterized by rapid population growth, declining farm size and household incomes, deteriorating woody vegetation cover and worsening land degradation if current conditions remain. However, through integrated intervention strategies (including forest increase, micro-finance, family planning, health and education) the woody vegetation cover is likely to increase in the landscape, population growth is likely to slow down and households’ income is likely to improve. A validation assessment of the simulation model based on historical data on land-use and population from 1973 to 2006 showed that the model is relatively robust. We conclude that as a supporting tool, the simulation model can contribute to the decision making process.     

Influence of sorption to dissolved humic substances on transformation reactions of hydrophobic organic compounds in water. Part II: hydrolysis reactions

The effect of dissolved humic acid (HA) on two types of hydrolysis reactions was investigated: (I) dehydrochlorination of gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) and 1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane (TeCA) as a reaction involving hydroxide ions (OH(-)) and (II) hydrolysis of 1-octyl acetate (OA) which is catalyzed by H(+) at the applied pH value (pH 4.5). The rate of TeCA hydrolysis was not affected by addition of 2 g l(-1) of HA at pH 10 (k' = 0.33 h(-1)) but HCH hydrolysis was significantly inhibited (k' = 4.6 x 10(-3) h(-1) without HA and 2.8 x 10(-3)h(-1) at 2 g l(-1) HA). HCH is sorbed by 51% whereas TeCA sorption is insignificant at this HA concentration. Sorbed HCH molecules are effectively protected due to electrostatic repulsion of OH(-) by the net negative charge of the HA molecules. In contrast, OA hydrolysis at pH 4.5 (k' = 1.6 x 10(-5) h(-1)) was drastically accelerated after addition of 2 g l(-1) HA (k' = 1.1 x 10(-3) h(-1)). The ratio of the pseudo-first-order rate constants of the sorbed and the freely dissolved ester fraction is about 70. H(+) accumulation in the microenvironment of the negatively charged HA molecules was suggested to contribute to the higher reaction rate for the sorbed fraction in case of this H(+)-catalyzed reaction. Analogous effects from anionic surfactants are known as micellar catalysis.     

How oxygen deficiency in the Baltic Sea proper has spread and worsened: The role of ammonium and hydrogen sulphide

Even large inflows of oxygen-rich seawater to the Baltic Proper have in recent decades given only short-lived relief from oxygen deficiency below the halocline. We analyse long-term changes in oxygen deficiency, and calculate the “total oxygen debt” ΣOD, the oxygen required to oxidize the hydrogen sulphide (H₂S) and ammonium (NH₄) that builds up during stagnation periods. Since the early 1990s, oxygen below 65m has gradually decreased during successive stagnation periods, and the ΣOD has increased, with NH₄ more important than previously recognised. After the major inflow in 2014, the Baltic Proper ΣOD has reached its highest level so far. The gradual shift of the ΣOD to shallower sub-halocline waters in the western and northern basins has increased the risk of periodic coastal hypoxia and export of hypoxic water to the Bothnian Sea. The potential for inflows large enough to more than eliminate the ΣOD seems limited in the near term.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01738-8.     

Deltas,freshwater discharge,and waves along the Young Sound,NE Greenland

A wide range of delta morphologies occurs along the fringes of the Young Sound in Northeast Greenland due to spatial heterogeneity of delta regimes. In general, the delta regime is related to catchment and basin characteristics (geology, topography, drainage pattern, sediment availability, and bathymetry), fluvial discharges and associated sediment load, and processes by waves and currents. Main factors steering the Arctic fluvial discharges into the Young Sound are the snow and ice melt and precipitation in the catchment, and extreme events like glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Waves are subordinate and only rework fringes of the delta plain forming sandy bars if the exposure and fetch are optimal. Spatial gradients and variability in driving forces (snow and precipitation) and catchment characteristics (amount of glacier coverage, sediment characteristics) as well as the strong and local influence of GLOFs in a specific catchment impede a simple upscaling of sediment fluxes from individual catchments toward a total sediment flux into the Young Sound.     

Modeling attitudes and perceptions as predictors for changing safety margins during organizational change

This study describes the relations between different dimensions of leadership commitment, safety climate and attitudes toward change, and how these affect employee perceptions of safety during organizational change in a high risk environment. We collected data from a European national air navigation services provider during a volatile 3-year corporatization process that ended in the sudden collapse of a deliberate change implementation project. Surprisingly, despite visible signs of internal and external stress caused by the volatile and disruptive change process, we did not observe any change in the traditional safety metrics of incident and accident reporting during the study. The study is based on a large survey (n = 422) of individual attitudes and perceptions of safety climate, perception of leadership commitment to safety, attitudes to organizational change, and perception of safety. The data support the claim that perception of safety at least, in part, depends on individual perceptions of the leadership’s commitment to safety, and the safety climate in place at a given point in time. The model shows how employee perceptions of the leadership’s commitment to safety and safety climate are related to both attitudes toward change, and to perceived safety.     

Tonminerale als Katalysatoren bei der Umwandlung von organischen Verbindungen

Clay minerals show a variety of reactive properties, which make them used in industrial processes but are mostly neglected in soil science. In this overview these various properties of clay minerals are listed. Thereby it shall be pointed out, that these capabilities can also be of some importance in soils.     

Comparison of environmental effects and resource consumption for different wastewater and organic waste management systems in a new city area in Sweden

An analysis of the environmental effects and resource consumption by four systems for management of wastewater and organic household waste in a new city area have been performed, as follows: (1) conventional system complemented with advanced sludge treatment for phosphorus recovery, (2) blackwater system with urine diversion and food waste disposers, (3) blackwater system with food waste disposers and reverse osmosis, and (4) local wastewater treatment plant with nutrient recovery by using reverse osmosis. Substance-flow analysis and energy/exergy calculations were performed by using the software tool URWARE/ORWARE. Emissions were calculated and classified based on the impact categories global warming potential, acidification, and eutrophication, according to ISO 14042 (2000). The analysis also included nutrient recovery (i.e., the potential to use nutrients as a fertilizer). Depending on which aspects are prioritized, different systems can be considered to be the most advantageous.     

Radioactivity Monitored From Moored Oceanographic Buoys

The principles and operation of a gamma radiation sensor mounted on oceanographic buoys are described. the sensor has proved rugged in severe weather conditions and has satisfactory detection limits and accuracy. Continuous monitoring of artificially produced γ-emitters such as ¹³⁷Cs, ¹³⁴Cs, ¹³¹I, ¹³³I, ¹³²Te, naturally occuring emitters such as ⁴⁰k and ²¹⁴Bi in open sea conditions can provide important information in critical situations.