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621.
Panos Hadjinicolaou Christos Giannakopoulos Christos Zerefos Manfred A. Lange Stelios Pashiardis Jos Lelieveld 《Regional Environmental Change》2011,11(3):441-457
We present climate change projections and apply indices of weather extremes for the Mediterranean island Cyprus using data
from regional climate model (RCM) simulations driven by the IPCC A1B scenario within the ENSEMBLES project. Daily time-series
of temperature and precipitation were used from six RCMs for a reference period 1976–2000 and for 2026–2050 (‘future‘) for
representative locations, applying a performance selection among neighboring model grid-boxes. The annual average temperatures
of the model ensemble have a ±1.5°C bias from the observations (negative for maximum and positive for minimum temperature),
and the models underestimate annual precipitation totals by 4–17%. The climatological annual cycles for the observations fall
within the 1σ range of the 6-model average, highlighting the strength of using multi-model output. We obtain reasonable agreement
between models and observations for the temperature-related indices of extremes for the recent past, while the comparison
is less good for the precipitation-related extremes. For the future, the RCM ensemble shows significant warming of 1°C in
winter to 2°C in the summer for both maximum and minimum temperatures. Rainfall is projected to decrease by 2–8%, although
this is not statistically significant. Our results indicate the shift of the mean climate to a warmer state, with a relatively
strong increase in the warm extremes. The precipitation frequency is projected to decrease at the inland Nicosia and at the
coastal Limassol, while the mountainous Saittas could experience more frequent 5–15 mm/day rainfall. In future, very hot days
are expected to increase by more than 2 weeks/year and tropical nights by 1 month/year. The annual number of consecutive dry
days shows a statistically significant increase (of 9 days) in Limassol. These projected changes of the Cyprus climate may
adversely affect ecosystems and the economy of the island and emphasize the need for adaptation strategies. 相似文献
622.
Christian Sartorius Thomas Hillenbrand Rainer Walz 《Regional Environmental Change》2011,11(2):377-391
As a leading nutrient emitter, wastewater infrastructure harbors significant technical potentials to reduce the water-polluting
emissions of phosphorus and nitrogen into the Elbe river basin. From the viewpoint of the central infrastructure, the effluent
threshold value of urban wastewater treatment plants could be lowered further by advanced use of denitrification and membrane
filtration, and storm water overflows of wastewater and contaminated rainwater from sewers could be treated in retention soil
filters. In addition, small-scale wastewater treatment plants, infiltration and reducing or unsealing impervious surfaces
could be used as decentralized elements of wastewater or storm water treatment. It can be shown that if the most advanced
measures were applied in all wastewater-relevant areas, up to 60% of the phosphorus and 37% of the nitrogen emissions could
be avoided. Alongside central wastewater treatment plants, small-scale treatment plants prove to be the most effective and
cost-efficient option. To achieve an ecologically acceptable state of the Elbe, however, it may be necessary to employ more
costly measures as well. 相似文献
623.
Christos Giannakopoulos Effie Kostopoulou Konstantinos V. Varotsos Kostas Tziotziou Achilleas Plitharas 《Regional Environmental Change》2011,11(4):829-843
Climate changes in the Mediterranean region, related to a significant increase in temperature and changes in precipitation
patterns, can potentially affect local economies. Agriculture and tourism are undoubtedly the most important economic sources
for Greece and these may be more strongly affected by changing future climate conditions. Climate change and their various
negative impacts on human life are also detected in their environment; hence this study deals with implications, caused by
changing climate, in urban and forest areas. Potential changes for the mid-twenty-first century (2021–2050) are analysed using
a high-resolution regional climate model. This paper presents relevant climatic indices, indicative for potential implications
which may jeopardise vital economic/environmental sectors of the country. The results provide insights into particular regions
of the Greek territory that may undergo substantial impacts due to climate change. It is concluded that the duration of dry
days is expected to increase in most of the studied agricultural regions. Winter precipitation generally decreases, whereas
an increase in autumn precipitation is projected in most areas. Changing climate conditions associated with increased minimum
temperatures (approximately 1.3°C) and decreased winter precipitation by 15% on average suggest that the risk for forest fires
is intensified in the future. In urban areas, unpleasantly high temperatures during day and night will increase the feeling
of discomfort in the citizens, while flash floods events are expected to occur more frequently. Another impact of climate
change in urban regions is the increasing energy demand for cooling in summer. Finally, it was found that continental tourist
areas of the Greek mainland will more often face heatwave episodes. In coastal regions, increased temperatures especially
at night in combination with high levels of relative humidity can lead to conditions that are nothing less than uncomfortable
for foreigners and the local population. In general, projected changes associated with temperature have a higher degree of
confidence than those associated with precipitation. 相似文献
624.
Luca Salvati Alberto Mancini Sofia Bajocco Roberta Gemmiti Margherita Carlucci 《Regional Environmental Change》2011,11(4):767-777
In recent years, the surface area affected by land degradation (LD) has significantly increased in southern European regions
where the socioeconomic development has been proposed as a basic factor underlying the degree of vulnerability to LD. This
paper investigates the correlation between several socioeconomic indicators and the level of vulnerability to LD in Italy,
expressed as changes (1990–2000) in a composite index of land vulnerability (ΔLVI). The analysis was carried out over 784
local districts. The impact of per capita value added, agricultural intensity, industrial and tourism concentration, and urban
growth was separately tested on ΔLVI. Results indicate that a lower district value added, crop intensification, irrigation,
and the level of land vulnerability to degradation are strongly associated with the increasing level of land vulnerability
over time, highlighting the role of the socioeconomic development as a main process underlying LD. In this framework, spatially
equitable sustainable development may represent the effective strategy to mitigate the detrimental effects of economic growth
and regional disparities on Mediterranean LD. 相似文献
625.
Ecosystem services and hydroelectricity in Central America: modelling service flows with fuzzy logic and expert knowledge 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Bruno Locatelli Pablo Imbach Raffaele Vignola Marc J. Metzger Efraín José Leguía Hidalgo 《Regional Environmental Change》2011,11(2):393-404
Because ecosystem services are generally not produced and used in the same place, their assessment should consider the flows
of services from ecosystems to users. These flows depend on the characteristics and spatial distribution of ecosystems and
users, the spatial relationships between them, and the presence of filters or barriers between ecosystems and users. The objective
of this paper is to map the ecosystem services provided to the Costa Rican and Nicaraguan hydroelectric sectors, which are
crucial sectors for national sustainable development and depend directly on hydrological ecosystem services. The paper presents
an approach for modelling the flows of multiple services from diverse ecosystems to diverse users through different kinds
of filters in a landscape. The approach uses expert knowledge and fuzzy numbers to handle uncertainties. The analyses for
Costa Rica and Nicaragua show how the approach helps identify priority areas for the conservation and restoration of forests
for the services they provide to the hydroelectric sector. As such, it is a useful tool for defining spatially targeted policies
for the conservation of ecosystem services and for involving the users of ecosystem services in ecosystem management. 相似文献
626.
Climate change and human disturbance drive catchment erosion and increase riverine sediment load sensitively in small and
medium-sized watersheds. This is not always true in large basins, where aggregation and buffering effects have dampen the
ability to determine the driving forces of sedimentation. Even though there are significant responses to sedimentation in
large river basins, it is difficult to get a precise quantitative assessment of specific drivers. This paper develops a methodology
to identify driving forces that change suspended sediment load in the Upper Yangtze river. Annual runoff and sediment load
data from 1954 to 2005 at the Yichang gauging station in the Upper Yangtze basin, daily precipitation data from 60 meteorological
stations, and survey data on reservoir sediment were collected for the study. Sediment load/rainfall erosivity (S/R), is a
new proxy indicator introduced to reflect human activities. Since the mid-1980s, S/R in the Upper Yangtze has dramatically
declined from 0.21 to 0.03 (×1010 t ha h MJ−1 mm−1), indicating that human activity has played a key role in the decline of the suspended sediment load. Before the mid-1980s,
a higher average S/R is attributed to large-scale deforestation and land reclamation. A significant sediment decrease occurred
from 1959 to 1961 during an extreme drought condition, and an increase in sedimentation in 1998 coincided with an extreme
flood event, which was well recorded in the S/R curve. This indicates that the S/R proxy is able to distinguish anthropogenic
from climate impacts on suspended sediment load, but is not necessarily indicatory in extreme climate events. In addition,
typical drivers of riverine sediment load variation including soil conservation projects, reservoirs construction, and land
use/cover change are discussed. 相似文献
627.
P. Valkering R. van der Brugge A. Offermans N. Rijkens-Klomp 《Regional Environmental Change》2011,11(2):229-241
Climate adaptation is a complex task surrounded by uncertainty. To support climate adaptation policies, a new scenario approach
is pursued to explore possible discontinuous future developments of societal perspectives on climate adaptation issues. The
scenario approach was tested for a case study on Dutch river management. In a series of scenario development workshops, a
select group of stakeholders explored the perspectives on the management of the River Meuse in the past, present, and future.
The process was supported by an analytical perspectives mapping tool to illustrate and analyze the development of perspectives
over time. The process and analytical tools contributed to insight into the drivers of perspective change for the case study
at hand. Moreover, the stakeholders highlighted the potential of the approach for water management policy for creating awareness
about the plurality of perspectives and the dynamics of perspective change, monitoring perspectives and perspective change
as part of a flexible policy approach, and anticipating on the occurrence of shock events. Further work is required to better
represent the social dynamics of perspectives change, to better empirically ground the perspective change model, and to apply
integrated water models in the scenario development process to assess water–society interactions. 相似文献
628.
Recent changes in flood preparedness of private households and businesses in Germany 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
Heidi Kreibich Isabel Seifert Annegret H. Thieken Eric Lindquist Klaus Wagner Bruno Merz 《Regional Environmental Change》2011,11(1):59-71
Using the focusing event framework, a comprehensive analysis of private households’ and businesses’ preparedness was undertaken in the aftermath of the 2002 and 2006 flood events on the Elbe River in Germany. In August 2002, preparedness of households (n = 235) and businesses (n = 103) was low: 30% of the households and 54% of the businesses took no precautionary measures before the flood event. Many undertaken emergency measures were ineffective, since only 26% of all households knew how to react when the flood warning came, and only 9% of businesses had an emergency plan in place. Due to this extreme flood, double-loop learning occurred in many households and businesses, so that many did implement precautionary measures. The distribution of adopted precautionary measures for households fits well to Preisendörfer’s low-cost hypothesis, but does not apply for businesses. Only 10% of the households (n = 112), but still 29% of the businesses (n = 41) were unprepared before the flood in 2006. Significant improvement in flood preparedness activities is still necessary. Particularly for businesses, regulatory programs and programs encouraging proactive behaviour should be implemented. The focusing event framework proofed to be a useful tool for a differentiated analysis of the responses to and learning due to a disaster also in the commercial and private sector. 相似文献
629.
Stakeholder engagement in social learning to resolve controversies over land-use change to plantation forestry 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Rapid land-use change arising from incentives for afforestation has created tensions in rural communities previously dominated
by agricultural enterprises. This paper reports on an innovative experiment with social learning that incorporated participatory
modelling to resolve community concerns in a case study of plantation forestry in the Upper Clarence catchment of north-eastern
NSW Australia. The development of a diagnostic framework helped identify socioeconomic and environmental issues within the
community for investigation by a self-selected participatory advisory committee (PAC) representing a diversity of views. Implementation
of a social learning exercise offered empathetic and intellectual engagement among PAC members that maintained interest, built
confidence, and improved problem-solving capacity while fostering group ownership over decision making. A shared understanding
of dynamic landscape problems helped empower participants to collaboratively develop solutions for improved management and
operational practices, and cooperate to explore further options for plantation industry development under existing policy
guidelines which are presented in this paper. As a result of frank discussions between diverse stakeholders in a mutually
respectful learning environment that combined local, scientific and expert knowledge, concerns dissipated and participants
developed a more favourable view of plantation forestry activity. 相似文献
630.
Anthropogenic biomass burning in insular Southeast Asia facilitates conversion and degradation of ecosystems and emits high amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. We analyzed the influence of peat soil and land cover distribution on the occurrence and characteristics of vegetation fires. Two years of satellite-based active fire detections over Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra, Borneo and Java were examined together with land cover and peatland maps. Our results showed that fire occurrence nearly tripled (23,000 → 68,000) from a wet La Niña year (2008) to a drier El Niño year (2009). In both years, fires were concentrated in peatlands (in 2009 41% of fires vs. 10% of land area), and the majority of large-scale burning took place in peatlands. Variation in peatland land cover within the study area was noticed to create remarkable different fire regimes. Biomass burning in the intensely managed Sumatran peatlands was characterized by large-scale land clearance fires that took place annually to varying extent. The largely unmanaged degraded peatland ecosystems of Borneo, on the other hand, experienced very little fire activity in a wet year but were ravaged by large-scale wildfires when El Niño conditions arose. We conclude that fire regime characteristics in insular Southeast Asia are strongly connected to occurrence of peat soil and land management status. This leads to high variation of fire activity within this region both annually (depending on weather patters) and over longer time range (depending on land cover/management issues) and greatly complicates estimation of the effects of fires. 相似文献