The development of probabilistic models to estimate accident risk (due to runway overrun and landing undershoot) applicable to the design and construction of runway safety areas

The risks of landing overrun (LDOR – LanDing OverRun), Take-off Overrun (TOOR – Take-Off OverRun) and landing undershoot (LDUS – LanDing UnderShoot) are dependent on multiple factors related to operating conditions. These include wind, runway surface conditions, landing or take-off distances required, the presence of obstacles, runway distance available, the existence and dimensions of runway safety areas.In this paper we propose risk models for runway overrun and landing undershoot, using a probabilistic approach. These models are supported by historical data on accidents in the area around the runway and will enable us to determine if the risk level is acceptable or whether action must be taken to mitigate such risks at a given airport. Furthermore, these models permit comparison of the results of different risk mitigation actions in terms of operational risk and safety.The principal advantage of this method is the high quality results obtained for a limited investment in terms of time, computing power and data. As such the method is extremely practical and easy to apply in aerodrome planning, development and operation.     

Prediction of the confidence interval for stability analysis of chain pillars in coal mines

The conventional deterministic approach based (DAB) methods are simple and widely used to determine an adequate chain pillar size in coal mines where geological settings, coal characterizations and mining methods have been explored. It is evident that such deterministic methods have some intrinsic limitations in handling uncertainties in material properties, non-regular geometries and different mining operations. In the deterministic stability analysis of a chain pillar, the safety factors as well as all input parameters are deterministic. Although, these parameters generally exhibit uncertainty and should lead to a probabilistic expression for the safety factor. The probabilistic analysis provides a confidence interval to express the reliability of chain pillars stability.In this paper, safety factor is defined as a probabilistic function and the failure probability of designed chain pillar of Tabas coal mine is then evaluated using the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) and the Advanced Second Moment (ASM) methods. The results of the probabilistic stability analysis show that the confidence interval for designed pillars with both mentioned methods applied are similar and their values vary from 84% to 88%. The results of such analyses can be used as a basis for decision-making about the size of chain pillars and reduce the risk of pillars stability as well as the uncertainties. However, a trade-off between cost is essential for making the final decision.     

Organisational learning and continuous improvement of health and safety in certified manufacturers

Certified management systems have increasingly been applied by firms in recent decades and now cover the management of health and safety, principally through the OHSAS 18001 standard. In order to become certified, firms must not only observe the relevant legislation, but also improve performance and raise goals within health and safety on a continuous basis. The article examines how certified occupational and health management systems influence this process to evaluate how far they hinder or support learning. It presents a model with which it is possible to identify and analyse improvement processes. The model is applied to five cases from a qualitative study of Danish manufacturers with certified health and safety management systems. The cases illustrate the wide variation in health and safety management among certified firms.Certification is found to support lower levels of continuous improvement performance in handling health and safety issues. However, more advanced improvement practices are shown to be connected to the integration of health and safety in other managerial areas, as well as to the employment of similar advanced improvement processes within firms. The article argues that certified health and safety management does not obstruct learning, and can support advanced learning. Improvement practices with regard to health and safety are mainly dependent upon the firm’s overall organisational processes and do not automatically arise from the standard alone.     

The development of an intervention to improve the safety of community care nurses while driving and a qualitative investigation of its preliminary effects

This paper details the development of, and perceived role and effectiveness of an innovative intervention designed to ultimately improve the safety of a group of community care (CC) nurses while driving. Recruiting participants from an Australian CC nursing car fleet, qualitative responses from a series of open-ended questions were obtained from drivers (n = 36), supervisors (n = 22), and managers (n = 6). The findings supported the effectiveness of the intervention in reducing self-reported speeding and promoting greater insight into one’s behaviour on the road. This research has important practical implications in that it highlights the value of developing an intervention based on a sound theoretical framework and which is aligned with the needs and beliefs of personnel within a particular organisation.     

Coding ATC incident data using HFACS: Inter-coder consensus

Reliability studies for coding contributing factors of incident reports in high hazard industries are rarely conducted and reported. Although the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) appears to have a larger number of such studies completed than most other systems doubt exists as the accuracy and comparability of results between studies due to aspects of methodology and reporting. This paper reports on a trial conducted on HFACS to determine its reliability in the context of military air traffic control (ATC). Two groups participated in the trial: one group comprised of specialists in the field of human factors and the other group comprised air traffic controllers. All participants were given standardised training via a self-paced workbook and then read 14 incident reports and coded the associated findings. The results show similarly low consensus for both groups of participants. Several reasons for the results are proposed associated with the HFACS model, the context within which incident reporting occurs in real organisations and the conduct of the studies.     

Flammability of hydrocarbon and carbon dioxide mixtures

The effect of carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration on the ignition behaviour of hydrocarbon and CO₂ gas mixtures is examined in both jets and confined explosions. Results from explosion tests are presented using a 20 l explosion sphere and an 8 m long section of 1.04 m diameter pipeline. Experiments to assess the flame stability and ignition probability in free-jets are reported for a range of different release velocities. An empirically-based flammability factor model for free-jets is also presented and results are compared to ignition probability measurements previously reported in the literature and those resulting from the present tests.The results help to understand how CO₂ changes the severity of fires and explosions resulting from hydrocarbon releases. They also demonstrate that it is possible to ignite gas mixtures when the mean concentration is outside the flammable range. This information may be useful for risk assessments of offshore platforms involved in carbon sequestration or enhanced oil recovery, or in assessing the hazards posed by poorly-inerted hydrocarbon processing plant.     

Characterization of gas/particle concentrations and partitioning of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) measured in an urban site of Turkey

Air concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in both gas and particle phases were measured in an urban site (BUTAL-Merinos) of the city of Bursa, Turkey between August 2004 and May 2005. The mean of total (particle+gas) PCB concentrations was about 491.8+/-189.4pg/m(3). The main contributors for PCBs in the sampling site were the local sources and long-range atmospheric transport supported by back trajectory analysis. Lower molecular weight PCB congeners generally dominated in the samples. The particle phase of the measured PCBs accounted for 15% of the total PCB concentrations. Gas/particle distribution was investigated using different approaches such as log K(P)-log P(L)(o), log K(P)-log K(OA) and the Junge-Pankow model. Regression analysis among log K(P), log P(L)(o) and log K(OA) exhibited significant correlation at p<0.05. Correlation between PCB homologs and meteorological parameters was formed to investigate the possible relationships.     

Effects of mercury on visible/near-infrared reflectance spectra of mustard spinach plants (Brassica rapa P.)

Mustard spinach plants were grown in mercury-spiked and contaminated soils collected in the field under controlled laboratory conditions over a full growth cycle to test if vegetation grown in these soils has discernible characteristics in visible/near-infrared (VNIR) spectra. Foliar Hg concentrations (0.174-3.993ppm) of the Mustard spinach plants were positively correlated with Hg concentration of soils and varied throughout the growing season. Equations relating foliar Hg concentration to spectral reflectance, its first derivative, and selected vegetation indices were generated using stepwise multiple linear regression. Significant correlations are found for limited wavelengths for specific treatments and dates. Ratio Vegetation Index (RVI) and Red Edge Position (REP) values of plants in Hg-spiked and field-contaminated soils are significantly lower relative to control plants during the early and middle portions of the growth cycle which may be related to lower chlorophyll abundance or functioning in Hg-contaminated plants.     

Degradation of fipronil under laboratory conditions in a tropical soil from sirinhaém pernambuco, Brazil

The objective of this research was to assess the degradation of fipronil [5-amino-1-(2,6-dichloro-alpha,alpha,alpha -trifluoro-p-tolyl)-4-trifluoromethylsulfinylpyrazole-3-carbonitrile] in soils from sugar cane fields in Northeastern Brazil. Degradation experiments were carried out under laboratory conditions (controlled temperature and in the dark), where sterile and non-sterile soils (Ustoxs) were incubated [under moisture content of 55% of the water holding capacity (WHC)] and analyzed for fipronil disappearance and metabolite formation. Microbial communities present in the soil degrade fipronil. However, biodegradation seems to be dependent on the bioavailability of the fipronil and the half-life according to the zero-order model. Fipronil degradation rate appeared to be biphasic. Degradation fipronil ranged from 83 days (initial concentration = 978 ng g(-1); short-term experiment) to 200 days (initial concentration = 689 ng g(-1); long-term experiment). This an initial slower rate followed by a faster rate after 90 days of incubation may lead to shorter half-life than that calculated with the zero-order model. The sulfone derivative (an oxidation product) was the predominant metabolite, but the sulfide (a reduction product) and amide (a hydrolysis product) derivatives were also formed under non-sterile conditions after 120 days of incubation. The metabolites underwent further biodegradation, particularly the sulfone derivative. Bioavailability appears to affect fipronil degradation in soils with an effective capacity to adsorb fipronil (such as Ustoxs), while redox potential was important for the formation of metabolites. Despite the fine texture, more aerobic sites were present, thus favoring the formation of the sulfone metabolite over that of the sulfide metabolite. Therefore, microaggregation of Ustoxs, with high clay content, played a very important role in determining the types of metabolites formed.     

Comparison between the accumulation capacity of four lichen species transplanted to a urban site

The capacity to accumulate trace elements from the atmosphere of the lichens Hypogymnia physodes, Parmelia sulcata, Pseudevernia furfuracea and Usnea gr. hirta transplanted to an urban site of N Italy was compared. Twenty-nine elements (Al, As, Br, Ca, Cd, Ce, Cl, Co, Cr, Cs, Cu, Fe, Hg, I, K, La, Mg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Rb, Sb, Sc, Se, Sm, Th, Ti, V, Zn) were analyzed by Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) and Electro-Thermal Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (ET-AAS). The ratio between the concentrations of each element in exposed samples to that of control samples (exposed-to-control ratio and EC ratio) was used to investigate the accumulation rates of lichen thalli. The results showed that in general elements did not exhibit well defined trends, but rather showed fluctuations, and indicated that H. physodes, P. furfuracea and U. gr. hirta have a similar accumulation capacity, while that of P. sulcata is lower.