Estimating baseline carbon emissions for the Eastern Panama Canal watershed

To participate in the potential market for carbon credits based on changes in the use and management of the land, one needs to identify opportunities and implement land-use based emissions reductions or sequestration projects. A key requirement of land-based carbon (C) projects is that any activity developed for generating C benefits must be additional to business-as-usual. A rule-based model was developed and used that estimates changes in land-use and subsequent carbon emissions over the next twenty years using the Eastern Panama Canal Watershed (EPCW) as a case study. These projections of changes in C stocks serve as a baseline to identify where opportunities exist for implementing projects to generate potential C credits and to position Panama to be able to participate in the emerging C market by developing a baseline under scenarios of business-as-usual and new-road development. The projections show that the highest percent change in land use for the new-road scenario compared to the business-as-usual scenario is for urban areas, and the greatest cause of C emission is from deforestation. Thus, the most effective way to reduce C emissions to the atmosphere in the EPCW is by reducing deforestation. In addition to affecting C emissions, reducing deforestation would also protect the soil and water resources of the EPCW. Yet, under the current framework of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), only credits arising from reforestation are allowed, which after 20 years of plantation establishment are not enough to offset the C emissions from the ongoing, albeit small, rate of deforestation in the EPCW. The study demonstrates the value of spatial regional projections of changes in land cover and C stocks: The approach helps a country identify its potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emission liabilities into the future and provides opportunity for the country to plan alternative development pathways. It could be used by potential project developers to identify which types of projects will generate the largest C benefits and provide the needed baseline against which a project is then evaluated. Spatial baselines, such as those presented here, can be used by governments to help identify development goals. The development of such a baseline, and its expansion to other vulnerable areas, well positions Panama to respond to the future market demand for C offsets. It is useful to compare the projected change in land cover under the business-as-usual scenario to the goals set by Law 21 for the year 2020. Suggested next steps for analysis includeusing the modeling approach to exploreland-use, C dynamics and management ofsecondary forests and plantations, soilC gains or losses, sources ofvariability in the land use and Cstock projections, and other ecologicalimplications and feedbacks resulting fromprojected changes in land cover.     

Prenatal diagnosis of a de novo complex chromosomal rearrangement involving four chromosomes

A complex chromosome rearrangement, apparently a balanced translocation involving chromosomes 4,6, 15 and 16, was found in cultured cells of amniotic fluid from a 32–year-old primigravida who requested amniocentesis for prenatal diagnosis because of a family history of mental retardation. Chromosome analysis of peripheral blood from both parents were normal. The couple was counselled for the prenatal diagnosis of this de novo complex translocation and, subsequently, elected to terminate the pregnancy. Post-mortem examination revealed a 23–week fetus with intrauterine growth retardation. The identical chromosome rearrangement was subsequently confirmed in cultured fibroblasts from skin and cord obtained from the abortus. To our knowledge, this is the first report where routine prenatal diagnosis revealed a fetus with a balanced complex chromosomal rearrangement involving four chromosomes of de novo origin.     

Alpha-fetoprotein and acetylcholinesterase in twins discordant for neural tube defect

Twins concordant for elevated alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and acetylcholinesterase (AChE) and discordant for neural tube defect (NTD) and sex are reported. A literature review reveals instances of termination of twin pregnancies with one normal and one abnormal fetus, partly based on concordant high AFP and positive AChE (although discordant on ultrasound examination). The levels of AFP and AChE in twin pregnancies are probably a function of the number of layers of fetal membranes separating twin sacs: dichorionic, diamniotic membranes allow transfer of AFP; monochorionic, diamniotic membranes allow transfer of both AFP and AChE. Cautious interpretation of biochemical findings and reliance on high resolution ultrasonography are suggested.     

Atmospheric nitrogen deposition on the east coast of Spain: relevance of dry deposition in semi-arid Mediterranean regions

Bulk deposition composition and pine branch washing were measured from April 1999 to March 2000 on the east coast of Spain. The main objective was to characterise N deposition patterns with special emphasis on dry deposition. Bulk deposition in the region is dominated by neutralisation processes by Ca2+ and HCO3-, ClNa of marine origin and a high correlation between NO3- and SO4(2-). SO4(2-) concentrations show a decrease with respect to previous studies in the region in agreement with generalized sulfur emission decreases while the remaining ions, including NO3-, are higher due to their general increase as well as to the inclusion of dry deposition in bulk collectors in the present study. An enrichment in NO3- has been observed in dry deposition composition branch washing) with respect to bulk deposition, while an impoverishment has been observed in the case of NH4+. Annual bulk deposition varies between 7.22-3.1 and 3.5-1.8 Kg ha(-1) year(-1) for S- SO4(2-) and N- NO3-, respectively. N total deposition goes from 9.78 to 6.8 Kg ha(-1) year(-1) at most stations, with the lowest deposition at the control station and Alcoi. The relative dry deposition with respect to the total was over 40% at most stations, going up to 75% at the southern station. N-deposition is expected to be higher considering that N-NH4+ deposition has been underestimated in this study.     

Conditional and unconditional estimators of population size

Estimators for the population sizes of animal species are similar to Horvitz-Thompson estimators — they involve dividing counts of detected animals by the probabilities of detection. Knowing detection probabilities for different subpopulations allows one to estimate each sub-population size with such an estimator, and to add the results for an estimator of the total population. In the case where the proportions of animals belonging to the different sub-populations are also known, this paper shows that using those proportions to arrive at a common average detection probability will, when used in conjunction with the total number of animals detected, result in a better estimator. We provide two examples where the inferior estimator may seem sensible.     

A Framework for Developing Management Goals for Species at Risk with Examples from Military Installations in the United States

A decision framework for setting management goals for species at risk is presented. Species at risk are those whose potential future rarity is of concern. Listing these species as threatened or endangered could potentially result in significant restrictions to activities in resource management areas in order to maintain those species. The decision framework, designed to foster proactive management, has nine steps: identify species at risk on and near the management area, describe available information and potential information gaps for each species, determine the potential distribution of species and their habitat, select metrics for describing species status, assess the status of local population or metapopulation, conduct threat assessment, set and prioritize management goals, develop species management plans, and develop criteria for ending special species management where possible. This framework will aid resource managers in setting management goals that minimally impact human activities while reducing the likelihood that species at risk will become rare in the near future. The management areas in many of the examples are United States (US) military installations, which are concerned about potential restrictions to military training capacity if species at risk become regulated under the US Endangered Species Act. The benefits of the proactive management set forth in this formal decision framework are that it is impartial, provides a clear procedure, calls for identification of causal relationships that may not be obvious, provides a way to target the most urgent needs, reduces costs, enhances public confidence, and, most importantly, decreases the chance of species becoming more rare.     

Decadal variability of floods in the northern foreland of the Tatra Mountains

Floods in the northern foreland of the Tatra Mountains considerably contribute to the total flood damage in Poland. Therefore, the question whether the magnitude and frequency of floods have changed in this region is of high interest. This study aims at investigating the inter-decadal variability of magnitude, frequency and seasonality of floods since the mid-twentieth century, to better understand regional changes. The analysis was accomplished in a multi-temporal approach whereby trends are fitted to every possible combination of start and end years in a record. Detected trends were explained by estimating correlations between the investigated flood parameters and different large-scale climate indices for the northern hemisphere, and by trends found in intense precipitation indices, number of days with snow cover, cyclonic circulation types, temperature and moisture conditions. Catchment and channel changes that occurred in the region over the past decades were also considered. Results show that rivers in the area exhibit considerable inter-decadal variability of flows. The magnitude and direction of short-term trends are heavily influenced by this inter-decadal variability; however, certain patterns are apparent. More extreme, although perhaps less frequent floods are now likely to occur, with a shift in the seasonality, decreasing flood magnitudes in winter and increasing during autumn and spring. The identification of the factors contributing to the occurrence of flood events and their potential changes is valuable to enhance the flood management in the region and to improve the resilience of the population in this mountainous area.     

Modelling annual pasture dynamics: Application to stomatal ozone deposition

Modelling ozone (O₃) deposition for impact risk assessment is still poorly developed for herbaceous vegetation, particularly for Mediterranean annual pastures. High inter-annual climatic variability in the Mediterranean area makes it difficult to develop models characterizing gas exchange behaviour and air pollutant absorption suitable for risk assessment. This paper presents a new model to estimate stomatal conductance (g_s) of Trifolium subterraneum, a characteristic species of dehesa pastures. The MEDPAS (MEDiterranean PAStures) model couples 3 modules estimating soil water content (SWC), vegetation growth and g_s. The g_s module is a reparameterized version of the stomatal component of the EMEP DO₃SE O₃ deposition model. The MEDPAS model was applied to two contrasting years representing typical dry and humid springs respectively and with different O₃ exposures. The MEDPAS model reproduced realistically the g_s seasonal and inter-annual variations observed in the field. SWC was identified as the major driver of differences across years. Despite the higher O₃ exposure in the dry year, meteorological conditions favoured 2.1 times higher g_s and 56 day longer growing season in the humid year compared to the dry year. This resulted in higher ozone fluxes absorbed by T. subterraneum in the humid year. High inter-family variability was found in gas exchange rates, therefore limiting the relevance of single species O₃ deposition flux modelling for dehesa pastures. Stomatal conductance dynamics at the canopy level need to be considered for more accurate O₃ flux modelling for present and future climate scenarios in the Mediterranean area.