Population as an oscillating system

In this paper we present a new approach describing population dynamics based on the view of a population as an oscillating system. To develop a mathematical model of an oscillating population, we applied a third-order differential equation. Our model describes population dynamics within a parametric-temporal continuum, formed by the relative values of population growth and decrease over time. In this paper we also illustrate how our oscillative model effectively compliments the existing suite of models in population dynamics.     

Interval-Parameter Conditional Value-at-Risk Two-Stage Stochastic Programming Model for Management of End-of-Life Vehicles

The management of end-of-life vehicles conserves natural resources, provides economic benefits, and reduces water, air, and soil pollution. Sound management of end-of-life vehicles is vitally important worldwide thus requiring sophisticated decision-making tools for optimizing its efficiency and reducing system risk. This paper proposes an interval-parameter conditional value-at-risk two-stage stochastic programming model for management of end-of-life vehicles. A case study is conducted in order to demonstrate the usefulness of the developed model. The model is able to provide the trade-offs between the expected profit and system risk. It can effectively control risk at extremely disadvantageous availability levels of end-of-life vehicles. The formulated model can produce optimal solutions under predetermined decision-making risk preferences and confidence levels. It can simultaneously determine the optimal long-term allocation targets of end-of-life vehicles and reusable parts as well as capital investment, production planning, and logistics management decisions within a multi-period planning horizon. The proposed model can efficiently handle uncertainties expressed as interval values and probability distributions. It is able to provide valuable insights into the effects of uncertainties. Compared to the available models, the resulting solutions are far more robust.

     

Aerosol Filtration by Sorbent Beds

Fixed beds of sorbent media are used for the evaluation of poiynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) present in air. Twostage sampling and separate extraction and analyses of PAH associated with aerosol particles and those present in the vapor state are usually performed. The ability of commonly used sorbents to retain particulate matter introduces a potential for reducing the time and cost of PAH evaluation procedures.

The filtration efficiency of three sorbent media, Florisil, XAD-2, and polyurethanefoam (PUF), for particles in 0.1 to 1 µm size range was studied using airflow rates from 4 to 2501 /mm through a PS 1 sorbent cartridge. Theoretical considerations were used to identify the principal filtration mechanisms and to assess the predictability of the aerosol filtration performance of sorbent filters. The results of this study indicate XAD-2 to be an efficient filtration medium owing to the electrostatic enhancement of capturing and retaining aerosol particles.

As a result of theoretical considerations, Brownian diffusion and inertial deposition were found to be major filtration mechanisms accompanied by electrostatic effects. While the efficiency of the diffusional deposition mechanism was reasonably well predicted with available theories, modeling of submicron particle impaction at higher fluid velocities appeared to be inadequate. Further developments are suggested to improve our understanding of filtration phenomena in sorbent beds under high flow rate conditions.     

Assessment of the interrelation between photooxidation and biodegradation of selected polyesters after artificial weathering

Three commercially available biodegradable polymers, two different aromatic-aliphatic copolyesters and polylactic acid, intended for the fabrication of agricultural mulching films, in addition to other applications, were subjected to a series of tests with the aim of studying the relationship between their photooxidation and biodegradation. Photooxidation resulted in the rearrangement of polymeric chains, in the case of both copolyesters the events led to polymeric chain crosslinking and the formation of insoluble polymeric gel. The tendency was significantly more pronounced for the copolyester with the higher content of the aromatic constituent. As regards polylactic acid photochemical reactions were not accompanied by crosslinking but instead provoked chain scissions. A biodegradation experiment showed that, despite marked structural changes, the extent of photooxidation was not the decisive factor, which significantly modified the rate of biodegradation in all three materials investigated. The specific surface area of the sample specimens was shown to be more important.     

Efficacy of Si fertilization to modulate the heavy metals absorption by barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) and pea (Pisum sativum L.)

Silicon-based fertilizers and soil amendments can have direct and indirect positive influences on cultivated plants. The solid forms of Si-based substances, the most widespread in use, are efficient only at high application rates due to their low level of solubility. Several types of Si-based substances such as fumed silica, slags from the iron and steel industry, modified slags, and a Si-rich product were tested using barley and pea as silicon accumulative and non-accumulative plants, respectively, at two application rates. The plants were grown under toxic concentrations of heavy metals in a greenhouse. Si-rich materials high in water-soluble Si had a positive effect at both the low and high application rates, and for both plant species. This type of substance can be regarded as Si fertilizer, demonstrating greater efficiency at a low application rate and lessened efficiency at a high application rate for protection of the cultivated plants against accumulation of the heavy metals.

     

Long-range atmospheric transport of three toxaphene congeners across Europe. Modeling by chained single-box FATEMOD program

Background, aims, and scope  Since toxaphene (polychlorocamphene, polychloropinene, or strobane) mixtures were applied for massive insecticide use in the 1960s to replace the use of DDT, some of their congeners have been found at high latitudes far away from the usage areas. Especially polychlorinated bornanes have demonstrated dominating congeners transported by air up to the Arctic areas. Environmental fate modeling has been applied to monitor this phenomenon using parallel zones of atmosphere around the globe as interconnected environments. These zones, shown in many meteorological maps, however, may not be the best way to configure atmospheric transport in air trajectories. The latter could also be covered by connecting a chain of simple model boxes. We aim to study this alternative approach by modeling the trajectory chain using catchment boxes of our FATEMOD model. Polychlorobornanes analyzed in biota of the Barents Sea offered one case to study this modeling alternative, while toxaphene has been and partly still is used massively at southern East Europe and around rivers flowing to the Aral Sea. Materials and methods  Pure model substances of three polychlorobornanes (toxaphene congeners P26, P50, and P62) were synthesized, their environmentally important thermal properties measured by differential scanning calorimetry, as evaluated from literature data, and their temperature dependences estimated by the QSPR programs VPLEST, WATSOLU, and TDLKOW. The evaluated property parameters were used to model their atmospheric long-range transport from toxaphene heavy usage areas in Ukraine and Aral/SyrDarja/AmuDarja region areas, through East Europe and Northern Norway (Finnmarken) to the Barents Sea. The time period used for the emission model was June 1997. Usual weather conditions in June were applied in the model, which was constructed by chaining FATEMOD model boxes of the catchment’s areas along assumed maximal air flow trajectories. Analysis of the three chlorobornanes in toxaphene mixtures function as a basis for the estimates of emission levels caused by its usage. High estimate (A) was taken from contents in a Western product chlorocamphene and low estimate (B) from mean contents in Russian polychloroterpene products to achieve modeled water concentrations. Bioaccumulation to analyzed lipid of aquatic biota at the target region was estimated by using statistical calculation for persistent organic pollutants in literature. Results  The results from model runs A and B (high and low emission estimate) for levels in sea biota were compared to analysis results of samples taken in August 1997 at Barents Sea. The model results (ng g⁻¹ lw): 4–95 in lipid of planktovores and 7–150 in lipid of piscivores, were in fair agreement with the analysis results from August 1997: 21–31 in Themisto libellula (chatka), 26–42 in Boreocadus saida (Polar cod), and 5–27 in Gadus morhua (cod) liver. Discussion  The modeling results indicate that the application of chained simple multimedia catchment boxes on predicted trajectory is a useful method for estimation of volatile airborne persistent chemical exposures to biota in remote areas. For hazard assessment of these pollutants, their properties, especially temperature dependences, must be estimated by a reasonable accuracy. That can be achieved by using measurements in laboratory with pure model compounds and estimation of properties by thermodynamic QSPR methods. The property parameters can be validated by comparing their values at an environmental temperature range with measured or QSPR-estimated values derived by independent methods. The chained box method used for long-range air transport modeling can be more suitable than global parallel zones modeling used earlier, provided that the main airflow trajectories and properties of transported pollutants are predictable enough. Conclusions  Long-range air transport modeling of persistent, especially photo-resistant organic compounds using a chain of joint simple boxes of catchment’s environments is a feasible method to predict concentrations of pollutants at the target area. This is justified from model results compared with analytical measurements in Barents Sea biota in August 1997: three of six modeled values were high and the other three low compared to the analysis results. The order of magnitude level was similar in both modeled (planktovore and piscivore) and observed (chatka and polar cod) values of lipid samples. The obtained results were too limited to firm validation but are sufficient to justify feasibility of the method, which prompts one to perform more studies on this modeling system. Recommendations and perspectives  For assessment of the risk of environmental damages, chemical fate determination is an essential tool for chemical control, e.g., for EU following the REACH rules. The present conclusion of applicability of the chained single-box multimedia modeling can be validated by further studies using analyses of emissions and target biota in various other cases. To achieve useful results, fate models built with databases having automatic steps for most calculations and outputs accessible to all chemical control professionals are essential. Our FATEMOD program catchments at environments and compound properties listed in the database represent a feasible tool for local, regional, and, according our present test results, for global exposure predictions. As an extended use of model, emission estimates can be achieved by reversed modeling from analysis results of samples corresponding to the target area. This article is dedicated to the memory of Professor Alexander B Terentiev (who passed away in November 2006), our true friend. With his Institute of Organo-Element Compounds, Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, he was an important main organizer of the six joint Finnish–Russian seminars (every third year since 1989) on the field (‘Chemistry and Ecology of Organo-Element Compounds’). He prompted us especially to search properties and environmental fates for various polyhalogen compounds. We remember him for his friendly character and great sense of humor.     

Elimination of endocrine disrupting chemicals nonylphenol and bisphenol A and personal care product ingredient triclosan using enzyme preparation from the white rot fungus Coriolopsis polyzona

The biocatalytic elimination of the endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDC) nonylphenol (NP) and bisphenol A (BPA) and the personal care product ingredient triclosan (TCS) by the enzyme preparation from the white rot fungus Coriolopsis polyzona was investigated. Analysis of variance methodology showed that the pH and the temperature are statistically significant factors in the removal of NP, BPA and TCS. The elimination of NP and TCS was best at a temperature of 50 degrees C and the disappearance of BPA at 40 degrees C, whereas the most suitable pH for all three micropollutants was 5. After a 4-h treatment of the three target compounds at concentrations of 5 mg l(-1) all of the NP and BPA were eliminated. In the case of TCS, 65% was removed after either a 4 or an 8-h treatment. The utilisation of 2,2'-azino-bis(3-ethylbenzthiazoline-6-sulfonic acid) in the laccase/mediator system significantly increased the efficiency of the enzymatic treatment. The elimination of NP and BPA was directly associated with the disappearance of the estrogenic activity. Mass spectrometry analysis showed that the enzymatic treatment produced high molecular weight metabolites through a radical polymerization mechanism of NP, BPA and TCS. These oligomers were produced through the formation of C-C or C-O bonds. The polymerization of NP produced dimers, trimers, tetramers and pentamers which had molecular weights of 438, 656, 874 and 1092 amu respectively. The polymerization of BPA produced dimers, trimers and tetramers which had molecular weights of 454, 680 and 906 amu. Finally, the polymerization of TCS produced dimers, trimers and tetramers which had molecular weights of 574, 859 and 1146 amu.     

The responses of the hepatosomatic index (HSI), 7-ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activity and glutathione-S-transferase (GST) activity in sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax, Linnaeus 1758) caged at a polluted site: implications for their use in environmental risk assessment

The present study investigates the response of three hepatic biomarkers in adult sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax, Linnaeus 1758) caged at a wastewater outlet of an oil refinery with fish caged at a pristine site used as controls. The biomarkers that were investigated were the hepatosomatic index (HSI), 7-ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activity and glutathione-S-transferase (GST) activity. In addition, we have measured the levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and selected heavy metals (lead, cadmium, mercury, copper and zinc) in sediment samples at the polluted site. Although the polluted site had high environmental levels of PAHs and heavy metals, there was no difference in hepatic EROD activity and HSI between fish caged at the polluted site and controls. On the other hand, GST activity was significantly lower in fish caged at the polluted site compared to controls. Our results point out that the studied biomarkers have limited use in environmental risk assessment studies, at least when caged adult sea bass is used as the sentinel species and complex toxicant mixtures are involved.     

Generation of Monthly Precipitation Under Climate Change for the Upper Blue Nile River Basin,Ethiopia1

Abstract: This work develops a methodology to project the future precipitation in large river basins under limited data and climate change while preserving the historical temporal and spatial characteristics. The computationally simple and reliable conditional generation method (CGM) is presented and applied to generate reliable monthly precipitation data in the upper Blue Nile River Basin of Ethiopia where rain‐fed agriculture is prevalent. The results showed that the temporal analysis with the CGM performs better to reproduce the historical long‐term characteristics than other methods, and the spatial analysis with the CGM reproduced the historical spatial structure accurately. A 100‐year time series analysis using the outcomes of the six general circulation models showed that precipitation changes by the 2050s (2040 through 2069) can be ?7 to 28% with a mean increase of about 11%. The seasonal results showed increasing wet conditions in all seasons with changes of mean precipitation of 5, 47, and 6% for wet, dry, and mild seasons, respectively.     

U and Th in some brown coals of Serbia and Montenegro and their environmental impact

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: The objective of this paper is to determine and compare the concentrations of U and Th in soft to hard brown (lignite to sub-bituminous) coals of Serbia and Montenegro. It also presents comparison of the obtained data on U and Th concentrations with the published data on coals located in some other countries of the world. Almost the whole coal production of Serbia and Montenegro is used as feed coals for combustion in thermal power plants. METHODS: Channel samples from open pit and underground mines and core samples were collected for hard and soft brown coals. For the analysis the samples were decomposed using microwave technique. Obtained solutions containing U and Th were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy (ICP-MS) using NIST standards. RESULTS: Concentration of U from the investigated basins and the corresponding mine fields ranges within 0.60-70.10 mg/kg, 0.65-3.20 mg/kg, 0.95-6.59 mg/kg, 1.20-6.05 mg/kg, 0.80-6.66 mg/kg, 0.18-89.90 mg/kg, 0.19-4.14 mg/kg, and 0.28-3.52 mg/kg for the Kostolac, Kolubara, Krepoljin, Sjenica, Soko Banja, Bogovina East field, Senje-Resavica and Pljevlja basins, respectively. Concentration of Th ranges within 0.20-2.60 mg/kg, 0.84-6.57 mg/kg, 1.48-6.48 mg/kg, 0.12-2.71 mg/kg, 0.13-4.95 mg/kg, 0.14-3.48 mg/kg, 0.29-3.56 mg/kg, and 0.17-1.89 mg/kg for the Kostolac, Kolubara, Krepoljin, Sjenica, Soko Banja, Bogovina East field, Senje-Resavica and Pljevlja basins, respectively. DISCUSSION: Brown coal from Senje-Resavica, Kolubara, Kostolac and Pljevlja is characterized by low U concentration. Coals form the Krepoljin, Soko Banja and Sjenica basins have slightly higher U concentrations than the mentioned group. The highest concentration of U is characteristic for the coal from the Bogovina East field. Concentration of Th in coals from Serbia and Montenegro has proved to be low. Out of all investigated coal basins, only the coal from the Krepoljin and Kolubara basins has high concentration of Th. The hydrothermally altered rocks of the Timok dacite-andesite complex, representing the basement of the Bogovina basin, could be a potential source of U, especially at the bottom part of the Lower seam of the Bogovina East field. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that brown coals in Serbia and Montenegro (soft to hard brown coals or lignite to sub-bituminous) contain low levels of U (5.30 mg/kg, average value and 2.10 mg/kg geometric mean value) and Th (1.80 mg/kg, average value and 1.12 mg/kg geometric mean value). There are some obvious differences in concentration of U and Th in coals from different basins in Serbia and Montenegro. The approximate value for U and Th release mainly from power plants was 644.33 t and 983.46 t, respectively within the period 1965-2000 for the studied mines in Serbia, and 23.76 t and 15.05 t for the Potrlica mine (Montenegro) within the period 1965-1997. RECOMMENDATIONS: The coals in Serbia and Montenegro show no identifiable unfavourable impact on the surrounding environment, due to low natural radioactive concentration of U and Th, but further investigations concerning human health should be performed. PERSPECTIVES: Preliminary research revealed that in some Serbian coals (and, particularly, parts of the coal seam) U and Th content are rather high. Such coals should be carefully studied, as well as U and Th concentrations in ash, fly ash, waste disposals, nearby soil and ground water. Further studies should include determination of the radioactivity of all these products, and estimation of possible health impact.