Proposing an information criterion for individual-based models developed in a pattern-oriented modelling framework

Individual-based models (IBMs) have been improved in quality and reliability in recent years with an approach called pattern-oriented modelling (POM). POM proposes guidelines to develop models reproducing multiple patterns observed on the field and to test systematically how well the IBMs reproduce them. POM studies used generally traditional methods of goodness of fit such as the sum of squares evaluation or ad hoc comparisons of fitting errors and variations. Model selection, however, can be a rigorous statistical approach based on information theory and information criteria such as the Akaike's information criterion (AIC) or the deviance information criterion (DIC). So far, it has not been tried to link POM to these rigorous techniques. The main problems to achieve that are: (a) the difficulty to have likelihood functions for IBMs’ parameters and (b) the possibility to obtain posterior distributions of IBMs’ parameters given the patterns to reproduce. In a first part, this paper answers problem (a) by proposing and explaining how to calculate a deviance measure (POMDEV) for models developed in a context of POM. And while answering the second problem, a second part of the paper proposes an information criterion for model selection in a POM context (the pattern-oriented modelling information criterion: POMIC). This criterion does not yet have the same theoretical foundation as, e.g., AIC, but uses formal analogies to the DIC. In a third part POMIC is tested with a modelling exercise. This exercise shows the potential of POMIC to use multiple patterns for selecting among multiple potential submodels and eventually select the most parsimonious and well fitting model version. We conclude that POMIC, although being a heuristically derived approach, can greatly improve the POM framework.     

INTEGRATING DEMOGRAPHIC AND LANDSAT (TM) DATA AT A WATERSHED SCALE1

ABSTRACT: Recurrent calls for integrated resource management urge that an understanding of human activities and populations be incorporated into natural resource research, management, and protection efforts. In this paper, we hypothesize that watersheds can be a valuable geography for organizing an inquiry into the relationship between humans and the environment, and we present a framework for conducting such efforts. The framework is grounded in the emerging field of landscape ecology and incorporates demographic theory and data. Demography has been advanced by technological capabilities associated with the 1990 Census. Employing Geographic Information System (GIS) tools, we couple Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) land cover data with census‐derived housing density data to demonstrate the operation of our framework and its utility for better understanding human‐landscape interactions. In our investigation of the Kickapoo Watershed and two sub‐ watersheds, located in southwestern Wisconsin, we identify relationships between landscape composition and the distribution and social structure of human populations. Our findings offer insight into the interplay between people and biophysical systems.     

Ten ways remote sensing can contribute to conservation

In an effort to increase conservation effectiveness through the use of Earth observation technologies, a group of remote sensing scientists affiliated with government and academic institutions and conservation organizations identified 10 questions in conservation for which the potential to be answered would be greatly increased by use of remotely sensed data and analyses of those data. Our goals were to increase conservation practitioners’ use of remote sensing to support their work, increase collaboration between the conservation science and remote sensing communities, identify and develop new and innovative uses of remote sensing for advancing conservation science, provide guidance to space agencies on how future satellite missions can support conservation science, and generate support from the public and private sector in the use of remote sensing data to address the 10 conservation questions. We identified a broad initial list of questions on the basis of an email chain‐referral survey. We then used a workshop‐based iterative and collaborative approach to whittle the list down to these final questions (which represent 10 major themes in conservation): How can global Earth observation data be used to model species distributions and abundances? How can remote sensing improve the understanding of animal movements? How can remotely sensed ecosystem variables be used to understand, monitor, and predict ecosystem response and resilience to multiple stressors? How can remote sensing be used to monitor the effects of climate on ecosystems? How can near real‐time ecosystem monitoring catalyze threat reduction, governance and regulation compliance, and resource management decisions? How can remote sensing inform configuration of protected area networks at spatial extents relevant to populations of target species and ecosystem services? How can remote sensing‐derived products be used to value and monitor changes in ecosystem services? How can remote sensing be used to monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of conservation efforts? How does the expansion and intensification of agriculture and aquaculture alter ecosystems and the services they provide? How can remote sensing be used to determine the degree to which ecosystems are being disturbed or degraded and the effects of these changes on species and ecosystem functions?     

The effect of protected areas on forest disturbance in the Carpathian Mountains 1985–2010

Protected areas are a cornerstone for forest protection, but they are not always effective during times of socioeconomic and institutional crises. The Carpathian Mountains in Eastern Europe are an ecologically outstanding region, with widespread seminatural and old‐growth forest. Since 1990, Carpathian countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Ukraine) have experienced economic hardship and institutional changes, including the breakdown of socialism, European Union accession, and a rapid expansion of protected areas. The question is how protected‐area effectiveness has varied during these times across the Carpathians given these changes. We analyzed a satellite‐based data set of forest disturbance (i.e., forest loss due to harvesting or natural disturbances) from 1985 to 2010 and used matching statistics and a fixed‐effects estimator to quantify the effect of protection on forest disturbance. Protected areas in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and the Ukraine had significantly less deforestation inside protected areas than outside in some periods; the likelihood of disturbance was reduced by 1–5%. The effectiveness of protection increased over time in these countries, whereas the opposite was true in Romania. Older protected areas were most effective in Romania and Hungary, but newer protected areas were more effective in Czech Republic, and Poland. Strict protection (International Union for Conservation of Nature [IUCN] protection category Ia‐II) was not more effective than landscape‐level protection (IUCN III‐VI). We suggest that the strength of institutions, the differences in forest privatization, forest management, prior distribution of protected areas, and when countries joined the European Union may provide explanations for the strikingly heterogeneous effectiveness patterns among countries. Our results highlight how different the effects of protected areas can be at broad scales, indicating that the effectiveness of protected areas is transitory over time and space and suggesting that generalizations about the effectiveness of protected areas can be misleading.     

A chemical view of the most ancient metazoa--biomarker chemotaxonomy of hexactinellid sponges

Hexactinellid sponges are often considered to be the most ancient metazoans. Lipid biomarkers from 23 species were studied for information on their phylogenetic properties, particularly their disputed relation to the two other sponge classes (Demospongiae, Calcarea). The most prominent lipid compounds in the Hexactinellida comprise C28 to C32 polyenoic fatty acids. Their structures parallel the unique patterns found in demosponge membrane fatty acids ('demospongic acids') and strongly support a close phylogenetic association of the Demospongiae and the Hexactinellida. Both taxa also show unusual mid-chain methylated fatty acids (C15-C25) and irregular C25- and C40-isoprenoid hydrocarbons, tracers for specific eubacteria and Archaea, respectively. These biomarkers indicate a similar, highly conservative symbiont community, although some shift in the abundance of the associated microbiota was observed. The lack of these features in calcareous sponges further contradicts the still common view that Calcarea and Demospongiae are more closely related to each other than either is to the Hexactinellida.     

The steroids of hexactinellid sponges

The Hexactinellida ('glass sponges') are commonly considered to be the most basic metazoans. Steroids of 20 species from different taxa were studied for chemotaxonomy and biosynthetic implications. All Hexactinellida contain cholest-5-en-3#-ol (cholesterol) and/or its saturated derivative 5!(H)-cholestan-3#-ol, along with their C-24-alkylated homologues. Where 5!(H)-stanols are present, they regularly co-occur with their 3-keto analogues. The steroid concentrations generally decrease with increasing carbon numbers, similar to sterol distributions typically found in marine sediments. These features argue against de novo sterol biosynthesis operating in hexactinellid sponges. Rather, we suggest a dietary uptake of (⁵-stenols and their stereoselective transformation via 3-keto intermediates to 5!(H)-stanols.     

Increasing concentrations of CO and O3 rising deforestation rates and increasing troposheric carbon monoxide and ozone in Amazonia

Increasing carbon monoxide and ozone concentrations have been observed in the lower troposphere of the Brazilian Amazon region in recent years (1989–1995). Carbon monoxide and ozone have been measured in the region continuously; from observations at a single site and many sporadic field missions, there is a clear indication that the chemical activity in the troposphere is growing, with increasing concentrations especially during the dry season. On the other hand, the most recent deforestation assessment by the Brazilian Government, performed by the Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) using Landsat data, shows yearly rates rising from the 11,130 km² year^?1 minimum of the 1990/91 survey, to 13,786 km² year^?1 for the 1991/92 period, and 14,896 km² year^?1 for the period 1992/94. It is argued that the increase in deforestation/biomass burning activities in “Amazonia” have produced larger carbon monoxide and ozone concentrations in the lower atmosphere.