Effects on the structure of Arctic ecosystems in the short- and long-term perspectives

Species individualistic responses to warming and increased UV-B radiation are moderated by the responses of neighbors within communities, and trophic interactions within ecosystems. All of these responses lead to changes in ecosystem structure. Experimental manipulation of environmental factors expected to change at high latitudes showed that summer warming of tundra vegetation has generally led to smaller changes than fertilizer addition. Some of the factors manipulated have strong effects on the structure of Arctic ecosystems but the effects vary regionally, with the greatest response of plant and invertebrate communities being observed at the coldest locations. Arctic invertebrate communities are very likely to respond rapidly to warming whereas microbial biomass and nutrient stocks are more stable. Experimentally enhanced UV-B radiation altered the community composition of gram-negative bacteria and fungi, but not that of plants. Increased plant productivity due to warmer summers may dominate food-web dynamics. Trophic interactions of tundra and sub-Arctic forest plant-based food webs are centered on a few dominant animal species which often have cyclic population fluctuations that lead to extremely high peak abundances in some years. Population cycles of small rodents and insect defoliators such as the autumn moth affect the structure and diversity of tundra and forest-tundra vegetation and the viability of a number of specialist predators and parasites. Ice crusting in warmer winters is likely to reduce the accessibility of plant food to lemmings, while deep snow may protect them from snow-surface predators. In Fennoscandia, there is evidence already for a pronounced shift in small rodent community structure and dynamics that have resulted in a decline of predators that specialize in feeding on small rodents. Climate is also likely to alter the role of insect pests in the birch forest system: warmer winters may increase survival of eggs and expand the range of the insects. Insects that harass reindeer in the summer are also likely to become more widespread, abundant and active during warmer summers while refuges for reindeer/caribou on glaciers and late snow patches will probably disappear.     

Determination of diazepam in aquatic samples by capillary liquid chromatography-electrospray tandem mass spectrometry

In recent years growing attention has been paid toward the discharge, presence and potential adverse effects of pharmaceuticals in the environment. Using different existing analytical methods several studies have already identified a variety of drugs in waste-, surface- and drinking water. The monitoring of surface waters for drugs is of great importance because drugs are designed to be biological very active substances. A capillary LC/ES-MS-MS method has been developed that enables the sensitive and specific detection of diazepam in water samples up to 0.1 ng/ml (LOD). It requires neither multiple extraction steps, nor the use of large volumes of organic solvent. Applying this assay we have detected diazepam in 'in/effluent samples' collected in Belgium and demonstrated the applicability for water analysis without off-line pre-concentration of the analyte.     

The role of door orientation on occupant injury in a nearside impact: a CIREN, MADYMO modeling and experimental study

OBJECTIVE: This study addressed the effects of vehicle height mismatch in side impact crashes. A light truck or SUV tends to strike the door of a passenger car higher causing the upper border to lead into the occupant space. Conversely, an impact centered lower on the door, from a passenger car, causes the lower border to lead. We proposed the hypothesis that the type of injury sustained by the occupant could be related to door orientation during its intrusion into the passenger compartment. METHOD: Data on door orientation and nearside occupant injuries were collected from 125 side impact crashes reported in the CIREN database. Experimental testing was performed using a pendulum carrying a frame and a vehicle door, impacting against a USDOT SID. The frame allowed the door orientation to be changed. A model was developed in MADYMO (v 6.2) using the more biofidelic dummies, BIOSID, and SIDIIs as well as USDOT SID. RESULTS: In side impact crashes with the lower border of the door leading, 81% of occupants sustained pelvic injury, 42% suffered rib fractures, and the rate of organ injury was 0.84. With the upper border leading, 46% of occupants sustained pelvic injury, 71% sustained rib fracture, and the rate of organ injuries per case increased to 1.13. The differences in the groups with respect to pelvic injury were significant at p = 0.01, rib fracture, p = 0.10, and organ injury, p = 0.001. Experimental testing showed that when the door angle changed from lower to upper border leading, peak T4 acceleration increased by 273% and pelvic acceleration decreased by 44%. The model demonstrated that when the door angle changed from lower to upper border leading, the USDOT SID showed a 29% increase in T4 acceleration and a 57% decrease in pelvic acceleration. The BIOSID dummy demonstrated a 36% increase in T1 acceleration, a 44% increase in abdominal rib 1 deflection, a 91% increase in thoracic rib 1 deflection, and a 33% decrease in pelvic acceleration. CONCLUSIONS: These data add more insight to the problem of mismatch during side impacts, where the bumper of the striking vehicle overrides the door beam, causing the upper part of the door to lead the intrusion into the passenger compartment. Even with the same delta V and intrusion, with the upper border of the door leading, more severe chest and organ injuries resulted. This data suggests that door orientation should be considered when testing subsystems for side impact protection.     

Sampling inference,an alternate statistical model

Sampling inference is proposed as an alternate paradigm. This method is discussed with respect to classical, Bayesian and a proposed probabilistic real world system. A probabilistic real world system is suggested as more valid and useful in practical as well as research situations. Sampling inference applied to a probabilistic model allows for valid inferences for volunteer and representative as well as random samples. A concept of time and distance based samples is introduced.