COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL METHODS FOR WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: While the correlation coefficient and standard error of estimate are frequently used when comparing models of seasonal water yield, the following criteria may be more important in selecting one model from among several alternatives: rationality of the regression coefficients, the distribution of the residual errors, and the correctness of indicators of the relative importance of the predictor variables. These criteria were used to compare seasonal water yield models that were calibrated using multiple regression, stepwise regression, principal components regression, polynomial regression using a principal components rotation, and constrained pattern search. Hydrologic data from the Upper Sevier River basin in southern Utah were used to illustrate the comparative analysis process. The prediction equations used the April-July streamflow volume as the criterion variable.     

COMPUTER BASED METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF NONSTRUCTURAL FLOOD MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT: The suggested methodology matches flooding risks to development classes. The matching process is accomplished on a mapping grid basis. Flooding risks include stage and velocity measures. Development classes are based on size and building material parameters for residential, commercial, industrial, and public structures. A computer program counts structures requiring predetermined nonstructural measures given the flooding variables, development classes, and desired effectiveness levels in question. A case study is presented to demonstrate data collection techniques, output, and the use of output in developing nonstructural mixes.     

Cadmium concentration in tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L.) from different countries and its relationship with other elements

Cadmium accumulation in crop plants, such as tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L.), can lead to human exposure to this carcinogenic metal. To better define actual Cd distribution in cured or processed tobacco leaves from chief tobacco-producing regions, we analyzed 755 leaf samples of three major types (Flue-cured, Burley, and Oriental) obtained from 13 countries during 2001-2003. This survey may help identify regions with low- or high-Cd concentrations in tobacco to obtain insight into the cause of the concentration extremes and to assist in defining strategies to reduce Cd in tobacco. Cadmium concentrations in the samples ranged from 0 to 6.78 microg g(-1), as determined by ICP-MS. Significant differences were found among types and among countries, but significant interactions between type and country were found. Variations in Cd concentrations were also found in all countries. Our results suggest an important contribution of the field (e.g., bioavailable Cd in soil, other soil characteristics) to the Cd concentration in tobacco. Finally, the correlation between the concentration of Cd and that of other elements differed among the types, which could be effectively discriminated based on the concentrations of 20 elements.