COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL METHODS FOR WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: While the correlation coefficient and standard error of estimate are frequently used when comparing models of seasonal water yield, the following criteria may be more important in selecting one model from among several alternatives: rationality of the regression coefficients, the distribution of the residual errors, and the correctness of indicators of the relative importance of the predictor variables. These criteria were used to compare seasonal water yield models that were calibrated using multiple regression, stepwise regression, principal components regression, polynomial regression using a principal components rotation, and constrained pattern search. Hydrologic data from the Upper Sevier River basin in southern Utah were used to illustrate the comparative analysis process. The prediction equations used the April-July streamflow volume as the criterion variable.     

Avoidance behaviour of Enchytraeus albidus: effects of benomyl, carbendazim, phenmedipham and different soil types

Enchytraeids are typical inhabitants of many soils, contributing to vital processes of this environmental compartment. Indirectly they are involved in regulating the degradation of organic matter, as well as improving the pore structure of the soil. Due to their behaviour, they are able to avoid unfavourable environmental conditions. Avoidance tests with enchytraeids, initially developed with earthworms by several authors, are quick and easy to perform. With these tests a first assessment of the toxicity of a (contaminated or spiked) soil is possible in just 48 h by using the reaction of the enchytraeids as measurement endpoint. In this period of time the organisms can choose between the control soil and the other soil (a contaminated or spiked or another soil with different physico-chemical properties). In the tests reported here, the enchytraeids were exposed to control soils spiked with the fungicides Benomyl and Carbendazim and the herbicide Phenmedipham. Several chemical concentrations were tested in order to evaluate the avoidance behaviour to toxic substances. In fact, often these short-term screening tests gave results showing avoidance at concentrations in a range similar to the acute test results but, higher than in chronic tests. Further tests are needed to decide whether the results gained in this study can be extrapolated to other chemicals. It is proposed to standardize the Enchytraeid Avoidance Test as it is currently done for the Earthworm Avoidance Test by the International Standard Organization (ISO).     

COMPUTER BASED METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF NONSTRUCTURAL FLOOD MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT: The suggested methodology matches flooding risks to development classes. The matching process is accomplished on a mapping grid basis. Flooding risks include stage and velocity measures. Development classes are based on size and building material parameters for residential, commercial, industrial, and public structures. A computer program counts structures requiring predetermined nonstructural measures given the flooding variables, development classes, and desired effectiveness levels in question. A case study is presented to demonstrate data collection techniques, output, and the use of output in developing nonstructural mixes.     

Acute effects of 3,4-dichloroaniline on biomarkers and spleen histology of the common goby Pomatoschistus microps

The aromatic amine 3,4-dichloroaniline (DCA) is a model environmental contaminant, precursor for synthesis and degradation product of several herbicides, which is commonly found in European estuarine ecosystems. In this work, the possibility of using biochemical and histological markers to assess sub-lethal effects of DCA in natural populations of Pomatoschistus microps juveniles was investigated. Alterations on the activities of the enzymes acetylcholinesterase (AChE), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and glutathione S-transferase (GST) and histological alterations on spleen were investigated after 96 h of exposure to sublethal concentrations of DCA (0.50-1.49 mg/l). At the concentrations tested, DCA had no effect on AChE activity. LDH and GST activities were significant altered in treated animals when compared to control groups. As already described for mammals, DCA induced splenic histological alterations in P. microps, including expansion of red pulp and deposition of hemosiderin granules in a concentration-dependent manner. This suggests that DCA is a xenobiotic of concern in estuaries receiving agricultural effluents.     

Monitoring of iodinated X-ray contrast media in surface water

A monitoring programme was carried out in order to determine iodinated X-ray contrast media (ICM) in the River Danube and to investigate the raw water quality for drinking water production at Langenau waterworks. The study revealed that the maximum concentrations of ICM (over 500 ng l(-1) for diatrizoic acid and iopamidol) were found in 2h-composite samples taken from the downstream of the Ulm/Neu-Ulm metropolitan area. By means of a concentration profile over one month the highest ICM concentrations were observed on weekdays. The extended data evaluation with principal component analysis shows that the upstream and downstream samples had different pattern of variations in ICM concentration and also demonstrates a clear change in ICM composition by the discharge of municipal wastewater. In addition to load profiles of ICM, time-dependent plots of principal component 1 exhibited peaks, indicating a short-term discharge of ICM between the two sampling sites. In conclusion, a point source for ICM contamination between the sampling sites in Ulm upstream and Leipheim downstream seems to be the reasonable explanation for peak ICM concentrations. Due to the observed high variations of ICM concentrations in river, the evaluation of natural waters by means of a single analysis is not representative.