Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects

Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C) emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State, Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico. A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines. In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable) in explaining empirical land-use patterns. We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond 10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed. This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection.     

Environmental occurrence of Q1, a C9H3C17N2 compound,that has been identified as a natural bioaccumulative organochlorine

Environmental appearance of Q1, a natural heptachloro compound with the molecular formula C₉H₃Cl₇N₂, was studied in samples from different sites all over the world. Q1 was expected to have a bipyrrole backbone, similar to other compounds ascribed to natural sources. A method for isolation of Q1 was developed by combination of adsorption chromatography on silica and normal phase HPLC with an amino phase. UV-detection of Q1 supports the aromatic character of the compound.

The high levels detected in samples of marine mammals and birds suggested that Q1 is both a persistent and a bioaccumulative contaminant. This was underscored by calculated log K_OW in the range of other lipophilic organohalogens. In accordance with earlier studies, highest Q1 concentrations were found in the Southern Hemisphere, but with a highly selective GC/ECNI-MS-SIM method, detection of Q1 was also achieved in many samples from the Northern Hemisphere. In addition to marine mammals and birds, Q1 was also detected in fish from the Mediterranean Sea and the Antarctic. Traces were also detected in SRM 1588 certified cod liver oil, but Q1 was not detected in fish from Hong Kong and Lake Baikal.     

Biological treatment of dye wastewaters using an anaerobic-oxic system

Three dye solutions, namely, C.I. Acid Yellow 17, C.I. Basic Blue 3, and C.I. Basic Red 2, were treated in an upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactor followed by a semi-continuous aerobic activated sludge tank. When hydraulic retention time was about 12 hours, no significant color removal was observed in the aerobic stage. In the anaerobic stage, Acid Yellow 17, Basic Blue 3, and Basic Red 2 were removed by 20%, 72%, and 78%, respectively. To treat wastewater from a dye manufacturing factory with COD concentration of 1200 mg/l and Color of 500 degree (dilution factor), an UASB reactor (4.5 liters) and an activated sludge tank (5 liters, adjustable), COD and color were removed by more than 83% and 90% at a COD loading rate of 5.3 kg COD/m³-day in the anaerobic stage, and at the hydraulic retention time of 6-10 hours for the anaerobic stage and 6.5 for the aerobic stage. The anaerobic stage of the A/O system removes both color and COD. In addition, it also improves biodegradability of dyes for further aerobic treatment.     

Element immobilization in refuse incinerator ashes by solidification in glass, ceramic or cement

Incineration of municipal refuse results in the production of massive quantities of fly ash and bottom ash. Toxic elements in the original refuse may be concentrated up to 40-fold in the resultant ash. There is concern that burial of such ash in landfills could result in leaching of these elements downward into groundwater. In this study, refuse ashes were incorporated into glass, ceramic and cement composites to immobilize such toxic elements. The EP Toxicity Test (1986) was used to show that extraction of such elements by simulated acid rain is effectively blocked in these new solid materials.     

Effect of different soil types on the enchytraeids Enchytraeus albidus and Enchytraeus luxuriosus using the herbicide Phenmedipham

Soil ecotoxicology studies are usually performed in standard soils, such as the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) artificial soil or the LUFA St. 2.2, a natural soil. When assessing the toxic effects in the environment, soil properties are often different from those in standard soils, which might lead to a different exposure situation for the test species and, therefore, to a different evaluation of the risk of the test substance. Selected to cover a broad range of properties and based on the Euro-Soils concept, 18 different soils were studied regarding their suitability to two test species: Enchytraeus albidus and Enchytraeus luxuriosus (Enchytraeidae). In reproduction tests, the test species reacted differently to the tested soils, but both enchytraeids did not survive in acid soils (i.e. pH相似文献   

Cytoprotective and anti-apoptotic action of HSP70 stress protein in Oreochromis niloticus exposed to residual dilutions of insecticides with fipronil and ethiprole

Abstract

The objective of this research was to investigate the potential damage caused by the residual concentrations of the insecticides Regent^® WS 800 and Curbix^® SC 200, containing fipronil and ethiprole, respectively as active ingredients, on the liver of Oreochromis niloticus. The analyses of HSP70 shock protein labelling and cell death process by TUNEL method were performed in order to measure the effects of the exposure of cell repair system of fish to both insecticides. Statistical analyses showed no significant molecular damage to the hepatic tissue of animals. Nevertheless, variations in HSP70 and DNA fragmentation levels, endpoint of cell repair system response and cellular death, respectively, were observed in several groups. These results indicate that the cell repair machinery was efficient when in contact with residual concentrations of insecticides. However, the DNA fragmentation detected by the TUNEL method suggests that even in face of the cytoprotective action of the HSP70 protein, there are damages that become irreparable. To finish, it is worth mentioning that given the results obtained from residual concentrations, use in the field should be with caution.     

Bioaccumulation and elimination of 14C-lindane by Enchytraeus albidus in artificial (OECD) and a natural soil

Bioaccumulation and elimination of 14C-lindane in Enchytraeus albidus was studied in artificial OECD soil and a silty loam from an agricultural field in Central West Portugal. Results showed that enchytraeids were able to bioaccumulate the chemical with a kinetic pattern similar to that of earthworms: fast uptake within a few days and a biphasic elimination pattern. A 10 day period to study uptake was sufficient, but a few more days were probably necessary for elimination. Bioaccumulation was influenced by soil type. The authors suggest that higher organic matter (OM) content and also the higher content on sand particles in the OECD soil may have led to a faster elimination: hydrophobic chemicals tend to adsorb to OM being in this way less bioavailable and therefore less bioaccumulated having bioaccumulation factor value around 6 while in natural soil is 10; the sand could act as abrasive particles (helpers) in the elimination process leading to an elimination of 90% of the chemical in two days while in natural soil 67% was eliminated in the same period of time.     

Congener-specific concentrations and carbon stable isotope ratios (delta13C) of two technical toxaphene products (Toxaphene and Melipax)

In this study we compared the contribution of individual congeners and the ratios of stable carbon isotopes of two technical toxaphene products. The former US-American product Toxaphene was from 1978 and the East-German product Melipax from 1979. Both technical products showed the known complexity in GC/ECD measurements. Contributions of 24 peaks to each of the technical products were determined by gas chromatography in combination high resolution electron capture negative ion mass spectrometry (GC/ECNI-HRMS). The percentages of the compounds studied in the technical mixtures ranged from approximately 0.05% to approximately 2.5% but showed some individual differences. 2,2,5,5,8,9,9,10,10-nonachlorobornane (B9-1025 or P-62) was identified as a major congener in both mixtures. 2-Endo,3-exo,5-endo,6-exo,8,8,10,10-octachlorobornane (B8-1413 or P26) and 2-endo,3-exo,5-endo,6-exo,8,8,9,10,10-nonachlorobornane (B9-1679 or P-50) were found at similar concentration in both technical products. Identical amounts of Melipax or Toxaphene were combusted to CO2 in an element analyzer and their delta13C values were determined relative to the international standard Vienna PeeDee belemnite (VPDB). The mean delta13C values of both products varied by 2.8% (determined at two different locations) which is roughly one order of magnitude more than the precision obtained in repetitive analyses of the individual products. Thus, both investigated products could be unequivocally distinguished by stable isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS). IRMS analyses may thus be a suitable tool for tracing back toxaphene residues in environmental and food samples to the one or both of the products.