基于模糊四元联系数的防洪工程体系安全综合评价模型

防洪工程体系是由随机、模糊、未确知等众多不确定性因子组成的复杂系统,它至今仍是洪水灾害管理的主体,对该体系综合安全进行定量评价可为洪水灾害管理提供重要依据.模糊四元联系数是集对分析中同异反联系数的推广,它可更深入地分析系统中的各种不确定性.利用模糊四元联系数建立了防洪工程体系安全综合评价模型,用联系度可描述评价对象与评价标准之间的关系,其结果简便直观,能清晰地反应评价对象和评价标准间的动态联系.用该模型综合评价了实际防洪工程体系的安全程度,其结果与物元分析等方法所得结果一致.     

新疆煤田火灾的成因、危害及综合治理

新疆是世界上煤田火灾最严重的地区,原因主要是新疆地处欧亚大陆腹地,具典型的大陆性干旱气候;新疆地区煤系为中下侏罗纪,地质活动较为剧烈;小煤窑的乱采滥挖等.新疆煤田火灾带来巨大危害:损失煤炭资源、污染环境、引发地质灾害、破坏生态平衡及危害生物健康等.对煤田火灾进行综合治理已经成为当务之急.为了有效灭火,应先对火区进行探测.探测方法有磁异常探测法、自然电场法和红外地面测温法等.然后因地制宜地选择适当的灭火技术进行灭火.灭火之后还应利用地理信息系统等方法对火区进行动态监测.     

劳动力外出务工对承灾体恢复力的影响——以河北省邢台县旱灾调查为例

农村劳动力资源是构成农户承灾体恢复力的重要因素.一般认为农村劳动力外出务工,可以提高农户家庭的经济水平,进而提升农户的旱灾恢复力.通过对河北省邢台县的实地调查研究发现,劳动力外出务工与农户承灾体恢复力间存在着微妙的关系.研究表明,户主外出务工模式不仅在农业生产的灾后恢复上,而且在农户家庭经济的恢复上均有积极的意义.对于子女外出务工家庭而言,子女不愿意再从事农业生产,并且子女的务工收入对家庭的贡献十分有限,即子女外出务工对家庭旱灾恢复力影响较小.     

地震现场数据共享标准化研究及其标准起草

标准化被普遍认为是保证信息更有效处理、交换、管理以及消除技术壁垒的最有效手段.信息共享标准是为规范信息共享的行为而制订的,是实现信息共享的"软"环境.通过对地震现场信息共享标准化研究,概述了这一标准制定的过程、总体内容框架安排的一些考虑以及存在问题,讨论了地震现场信息共享标准分类与编码体系、数据交换格式、元数据、数据字典及数据质量控制等与信息共享标准相关的一些问题.     

西安城市暴雨内涝灾害气象预警系统研究

介绍了西安城市暴雨内涝灾害气象预警系统的技术路线及原理.该系统包含本地化的城市暴雨内涝仿真模型,并以城区加密气象自动站资料、多普勒雷达降水估算产品、数值预报产品、主观预报等作为实况和模拟用的降雨边界条件,结合西安市区地理地貌特征、城市规划、排水系统特征、排水规则、防洪工程等多方面的非气象资料建立而成,具备一定的内涝动态监测预报能力.对2006年6月3日内涝过程进行了模拟,效果较好,能够满足预警需求.     

用汶川8.0级地震及余震序列探讨陕西数字地震台网地震数据处理系统定位稳定性问题

选取了2008年5月12日四川汶川8.0级主震及5月份发生在陕西省M≥2.5级、四川省M≥4.0级余震共60个,利用"十五"地震数据处理系统处理的地震定位结果与四川台网定位结果比较,并参照陕西数字地震台网"九五"与"十五"地震数据处理系统对所选取30个地震定位结果的对比情况,对陕西数字地震台网"十五"地震数据处理系统定位稳定性问题进行探讨.     

Co-benefits and additionality of the clean development mechanism: An empirical analysis

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) allows industrialized countries to comply with the Kyoto Protocol by using carbon offsets from developing countries. There are two puzzles within this carbon market: additionality (the proposed activity would not have occurred in its absence) and co-benefits (the project has other environmental benefits besides climate mitigation). This paper proposes an econometric approach to evaluate the CDM effect on sulfur dioxide emission reductions and assess its additionality indirectly. Our empirical model is applied to China's emissions at the prefecture level. We found that the CDM does not have a statistically significant effect in lowering sulfur dioxide emissions. This result casts doubt on additionality of these CDM activities, that is, they would have happened anyway.     

7种拟除虫菊酯农药对卤虫的急性毒性研究

为了研究7种拟除虫菊酯农药对美国大盐湖卤虫(GSL Artemia)的急性毒性效应,挑选18~24 h内孵出的卤虫,继续培养24 h后得到Ⅱ~Ⅲ龄卤虫无节幼体,将其暴露于所设浓度梯度的拟除虫菊酯溶液中进行24 h急性毒性实验,记录卤虫无节幼体在各浓度溶液中的死亡情况,并将所得数据进行Probit分析。结果表明,卤虫对不同拟除虫菊酯的敏感性相差较大。氯菊酯、氯烯炔菊酯、炔咪菊酯、胺菊酯、联苯菊酯、高效氯氟氰菊酯和溴氰菊酯对卤虫的24 h半致死浓度(24 h-LC50)分别为4.68、14.82、18.12、38.21、>100、>100和>100 mg.L-1。因此,在含有卤虫的盐水环境中,应尽量避免使用毒性较高的氯菊酯,而选择使用联苯菊酯、高效氯氟氰菊酯和溴氰菊酯等毒性较低的农药。     

Information-theoretic approaches to statistical analysis in behavioural ecology: an introduction

Scientific thinking may require the consideration of multiple hypotheses, which often call for complex statistical models at the level of data analysis. The aim of this introduction is to provide a brief overview on how competing hypotheses are evaluated statistically in behavioural ecological studies and to offer potentially fruitful avenues for future methodological developments. Complex models have traditionally been treated by model selection approaches using threshold-based removal of terms, i.e. stepwise selection. A recently introduced method for model selection applies an information-theoretic (IT) approach, which simultaneously evaluates hypotheses by balancing between model complexity and goodness of fit. The IT method has been increasingly propagated in the field of ecology, while a literature survey shows that its spread in behavioural ecology has been much slower, and model simplification using stepwise selection is still more widespread than IT-based model selection. Why has the use of IT methods in behavioural ecology lagged behind other disciplines? This special issue examines the suitability of the IT method for analysing data with multiple predictors, which researchers encounter in our field. The volume brings together different viewpoints to aid behavioural ecologists in understanding the method, with the hope of enhancing the statistical integration of our discipline.     

The ability of a benthic elasmobranch to discriminate between biological and artificial electric fields

To investigate the ability of elasmobranchs to distinguish between differing prey-type electric fields we examined the electroreceptive foraging behaviour of a model species, Scyliorhinus canicula (small-spotted catshark). Catshark preferences were studied by behaviourally conditioning them to swim through narrow tunnels, and on exit presenting them simultaneously with two different electric fields. Their subsequent choices of the following paired options were recorded; (i) Two artificial electric fields (dipole electrodes) with different magnitude direct current (D.C.), (ii) Two artificial electric fields, one D.C. and the other alternating current (A.C.), of the same magnitude, and (iii) similar magnitude, natural and artificial D.C. electric fields associated with shore crabs and dipole electrodes respectively. We found a highly significant preference for the stronger D.C. electric field and a less pronounced, but still significant, preference for the A.C. electric field rather than the D.C. electric field. No preference was demonstrated between the artificial and natural D.C. electric fields. The findings are discussed in relation to the animal’s diet and ecology and with regard to anthropogenic sources of electric fields within their habitat.