Cluster analysis of structural stage classes to map wildland fuels in a Madrean ecosystem

Geospatial information technology is changing the nature of fire mapping science and management. Geographic information systems (GIS) and global positioning system technology coupled with remotely sensed data provide powerful tools for mapping, assessing, and understanding the complex spatial phenomena of wildland fuels and fire hazard. The effectiveness of these technologies for fire management still depends on good baseline fuels data since techniques have yet to be developed to directly interrogate understory fuels with remotely sensed data. We couple field data collections with GIS, remote sensing, and hierarchical clustering to characterize and map the variability of wildland fuels within and across vegetation types. One hundred fifty six fuel plots were sampled in eight vegetation types ranging in elevation from 1150 to 2600 m surrounding a Madrean 'sky island' mountain range in the southwestern US. Fuel plots within individual vegetation types were divided into classes representing various stages of structural development with unique fuel load characteristics using a hierarchical clustering method. Two Landsat satellite images were then classified into vegetation/fuel classes using a hybrid unsupervised/supervised approach. A back-classification accuracy assessment, which uses the same pixels to test as used to train the classifier, produced an overall Kappa of 50% for the vegetation/fuels map. The map with fuel classes within vegetation type collapsed into single classes was verified with an independent dataset, yielding an overall Kappa of 80%.     

Software for prioritizing conservation actions based on probabilistic information

Marxan is the most common decision-support tool used to inform the design of protected-area systems. The original version of Marxan does not consider risk and uncertainty associated with threatening processes affecting protected areas, including uncertainty about the location and condition of species’ populations and habitats now and in the future. We described and examined the functionality of a modified version of Marxan, Marxan with Probability. This software explicitly considers 4 types of uncertainty: probability that a feature exists in a particular place (estimated based on species distribution models or spatially explicit population models); probability that features in a site will be lost in the future due to a threatening process, such as climate change, natural catastrophes, and uncontrolled human interventions; probability that a feature will exist in the future due to natural successional processes, such as a fire or flood; and probability the feature exists but has been degraded by threatening processes, such as overfishing or pollution, and thus cannot contribute to conservation goals. We summarized the results of 5 studies that illustrate how each type of uncertainty can be used to inform protected area design. If there were uncertainty in species or habitat distribution, users could maximize the chance that these features were represented by including uncertainty using Marxan with Probability. Similarly, if threatening processes were considered, users minimized the chance that species or habitats were lost or degraded by using Marxan with Probability. Marxan with Probability opens up substantial new avenues for systematic conservation planning research and application by agencies.