常熟市耕地资源时空演变特征

基于卫星遥感影像数据,GIS空间分析技术和统计分析方法相结合,利用耕地面积缩减强度指数、空间叠加等方法分析了常熟市耕地资源的时空演变特征,揭示了苏南经济发达地区耕地资源减少的规律。研究发现,随着经济发展,常熟耕地资源逐渐减少,且因城区和工业用地扩张引起的耕地非农转化指向十分强烈,居民点空间的指向呈逐渐减弱的态势。从空间演变规律看,常熟耕地非农化主要表现在：1）经济增长越快,发展水平越高,耕地减少越快;2）在城市、港口区的镇耕地减少更快;3）港区和工业区的建设,使其周边耕地非农化速度加快;4）道路交通的扩张是耕地非农转化的一个稳定因素;5）不同时期,耕地非农占用的空间指向不同：从20世纪80年代被居民点用地占用逐渐变迁为2000年以后的被工业用地、城镇用地、港口用地占用为主。城市发展、港区建设、交通建设、农村居民点建设、工业化推进和经济发展是耕地资源缩减的主导影响因子.     

湖北“两圈”区域发展可持续性评价与预测

利用可持续发展指数（SDI）对湖北“两圈”各市州发展现状进行了评价,而后利用9年的人均生物资源生态承载量年平均增长率、人口年平均增长率和足迹承载量比值年平均增长率及2006年相关数据对未来44年进行了预测。结果表明,截至2006年底,湖北省有一半以上国土面积的生物资源开采超过当地土地负荷,人均生物资源生态承载量持续下降,资源日益紧张,呈不可持续发展;武汉城市圈2006年生物资源生态足迹超出生物资源生态承载量的32%;鄂西生态文化旅游圈（简称：鄂西生态圈）除襄樊、荆州、荆门因人口多,生物资源生态足迹较大等原因导致SDI值较高外,其他市州的SDI值均较低;神农架的SDI最小;武汉城市圈人均生物资源生态承载量呈负增长,人口控制较好,足迹承载量比值增长较快;鄂西生态圈人均生物资源生态承载量呈负增长,增长速率大于武汉城市圈和湖北省,人口控制较差,足迹承载量比值增长较慢;按照现有发展模式,无论是武汉城市圈还是鄂西生态圈,无论其当前发展是可持续性还是不可持续的,未来他们都将进入不可持续的发展状态。因此,对“两圈”进行规划时要根据各自发展现状制定长期、科学的发展规划.     

基于分形理论的江苏沿江城镇体系研究

开放条件下,“全球 地方”作用深刻影响着区域城镇体系,沿江发达地区表现尤其典型。基于分形的相关理论和方法,以2006年为时空断面,对江苏沿江地区城镇体系的空间分布进行实证研究。结果表明：（1）区域城镇规模等级结构服从Zipf定律,首位城市南京在区域城市体系中的垄断性相对较强,但并非处于绝对垄断地位;（2）空间关联维数显示,沿江地区城镇体系的交通网络通达性优良,各城镇间联系紧密;（3）根据分维数和无标度区分析,三大城市群中,宁镇扬城市群分形发育最好,苏锡常次之,通泰城市群分形发育最差;（4）扬州、镇江、南京和苏州的城镇集聚程度较高,分形发育较为成熟;南通、泰州、无锡和常州的集聚程度均较低,分形结构不佳。扬州在区域城镇体系中分形发育最为完善,中心性最好,历史上形成的这种空间格局至今没有变化.     

长沙市湿地资源非使用价值评估研究

湿地资源非使用价值评估,有利于科学合理、可持续的开发和利用湿地资源。在理解湿地管理决策机制的基础上,用CVM法对长沙市湿地资源非使用价值进行了评估;利用415份问卷调查数据,采用Tobit模型探讨了长沙市居民对于长沙市湿地资源非使用价值的支付意愿;调查数据主要来自长沙市五区。研究表明：长沙市湿地资源非使用价值支付意愿受到多种因素的影响,包括被访者的社会经济特性、被访者对湿地的了解程度、被访者在湿地的休闲时间、湿地的距离远近等;长沙市湿地资源非使用价值为0437 6亿元/a,其中存在价值为0253 8亿元/a,遗产价值为0096 3亿元/a,选择价值为0087 5亿元/a。所计算出的非使用价值是一个动态变化的量,随着经济发展,人们的环境意识将随之增强,对于湿地生态资源的支付意愿也将呈现出增长的态势。〖     

多瑙河流域国际合作实践与启示

多瑙河是世界上流经国家最多的国际河流,其国际合作的成功实践对世界其他国际河流的合作具有积极的示范和借鉴作用。通过分析和总结多瑙河国际合作历程和合作特点（包括多种合作机制并存互补;引入风险管理、公众参与和流域综合管理等先进理念促进全面合作;利用GIS及数据管理等现代技术手段实现信息资源共享;利用协商和司法手段和平解决国际争端等）,结合我国国际河流的特点和国际水法及国际河流合作的发展趋势,提出了对我国的启示：应加强国际河流相关方面的研究与合作（特别是航运与水电开发等）;应充分重视国际河流生态环境保护,生态环境保护和防洪越来越强调全流域的合作与协调;应坚持国际河流的开发利用与保护并举,走平衡发展之路;应根据各国际河流特点及地区条件,选择合适的管理合作模式.     

流域水环境库兹涅茨曲线的上下游演递规律及其启示

按照流域尺度从小到大,分别选择新安江流域、珠江流域和长江流域作为研究对象,通过实证分析发现上下游水环境库兹涅茨曲线遵从一定的演递规律,即上游地区往往会重复下游地区的曲线过程,但其发展阶段落后于下游地区。上下游的发展差异越大,这种规律表现得越明显。产生这一规律的主要原因是我国多数流域下游地区的经济发展水平一般高于上游地区,下游比上游更早地到达了环境库兹涅茨曲线的峰值,并具有了更强的环境保护能力。这一规律有助于深化对上游水资源保护的重要性的认识。国家和下游地区需要加强对上游欠缺的生态环境保护能力的支持和援助,降低上游水环境库兹涅茨曲线的峰值和曲率,从长远意义上减轻上游发展过程中对全流域生态环境产生的不利影响和生态保护代价。     

淀山湖浮游植物叶绿素a粒径组成及其与水质因子相关性

于2005年6月至2006年5月对淀山湖小型（20～200 μm）、微型（2～20 μm）和微微型（<2 μm）浮游植物叶绿素a和水质因子进行逐月调查研究。结果表明：小型和微型浮游植物是淀山湖水体年均叶绿素a的主要贡献者,二者贡献率之和为7479%。淀山湖叶绿素a粒径组成百分比的季节变动与水体浮游植物群落结构季节演替密切相关：小型浮游植物叶绿素a浓度所占百分比春季最高,而微型、微微型的则分别在秋、冬季最高。相关性分析显示,小型、微型浮游植物叶绿素a浓度百分比与NH3 N含量分别呈显著正、负相关,微微型浮游植物叶绿素a百分比与BOD5呈极显著负相关。对应滤食性鱼类等水生动物的食性粒级,探讨了运用非经典生物操纵技术防治淀山湖富营养化的可行性。〖     

上海霾气候数据序列重建及其时空特征

利用上海11个气象站点1960～2008年日均相对湿度、能见度以及天气现象资料,重建了上海近50a霾气候数据序列,并从时间和空间两个方面分析了上海霾日数的气候特征和变化规律。结果表明,上海霾气候数据序列重建值与报表记录值之间变化形态存在着较好的一致性,重建值较记录值偏高。1960～2008年,上海霾日数以9.7d/10a的线性趋势显著增加,2002年以后霾日数总体上呈减少趋势。上海多年平均霾日数以冬季最多而夏季最少。近50a,上海霾日数呈现出西南部最多-市区较多-东北和东南部最少的空间分布,霾日数的空间变化趋势则表现为西南部增加较多而东部增加较少。1981～2008年,上海霾日数在西部和南部都增加,东部则减少。     

Contamination status of dioxins in sediment cores from the Three Gorges Dam area, China

In order to screen dioxin pollution in sediment of Three Gorges Dam (TGD) area, three sediment cores were obtained from two sites in 2010~2011; each core was divided into different samples with every 10 cm depth. Sediment dating determined by radiometry (¹³⁷Cs, ²¹⁰Pb) and concentrations of dioxins were analyzed by high-resolution gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. The results indicated: Sediment dating showed no significant difference among all the samples from the same core and the two locations (ANOVA, p?>?0.05). The total amount of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD)/Fs in all sample ranged from 30.7 to 371 pg/g dry weight (d.w.), with the mean value of 66.2 pg/g d.w. PCDDs occupied 60.33~85.22 % of dioxins in each sample, and PCDFs contributed to a very small extend. There was no significant difference in the dioxin concentration between 2010 and 2011 and in the two locations (t test, p?>?0.05), but the vertical distribution of dioxins showed significant different in different depths. Toxic equivalent (TEQ) (WHO 2005, Humans) of samples ranged from 0.15 to 1.60 pg/g d.w.; the mean was 0.41 pg/g d.w. No significant difference was found in TEQ between 2010 and 2011(t test, p?>?0.05). It could be concluded that the distribution of dioxins showed the spatial heterogeneous which resulted from the strong mixing and sediment deposition characteristics. Dioxin concentration in sediment cores was low with very low environmental risk potential. Dioxins at the two sites had the same origin, and exogenous input was the main source. It is the first report on the dioxins concentrations in sediment cores in the TGD area.     

Occurrence, distribution, and sources of six phenolic endocrine disrupting chemicals in the 22 river estuaries around Dianchi Lake in China

The objectives of this study are to track the occurrence, distribution, and sources of phenolic endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) in the 22 rivers around Dianchi Lake in China, to estimate the input and output amounts of phenolic EDCs in the water system, and to provide more comprehensive fundamental data for risk assessment and contamination control of phenolic EDCs in aquatic environment. Six phenolic EDCs were systematically evaluated in water and surface sediment in the estuaries of those rivers. The water and sediment samples were preconcentrated by solid-phase extraction system and microwave-assisted extraction system, respectively. Phenolic EDCs were analyzed by GC-MS (Thermo Fisher Scientific, USA) after derivatization. Phenolic EDCs were found ubiquitously in the aquatic environment. The total concentrations ranged from 248 to 4,650 ng/L in water, and 113 to 3,576 ng/g dry weight in surface sediment. The residue amount of phenolic EDCs in Dianchi Lake was 258 kg/a. Concentrations of the phenolic EDCs in the Lake decreased with increase in distance to the estuaries of those rivers which run through urban and industrial areas. The rivers seriously contaminated by phenolic EDCs were Xin River, Yunliang River, Chuanfang River, Cailian River, Jinjia River, Zhengda River, and Daqing River which run through the old area of Kunming City. Satisfying correlations were observed between the concentrations of the target compounds in water and in surface sediment. NP1EO, NP2EO, and BPA were identified as the three predominant phenolic EDCs. There were significant correlations between phenolic EDCs and many basic water quality parameters. Urban and industrial areas are the major contributors for phenolic EDCs, especially in Kunming City. Compositional profiles of phenolic EDCs in surface sediment were similar to those in river water. The concentrations of phenolic EDCs in the rivers located in the northwest part of the valley were very high, and posed a potential risk to aquatic organisms and even human. The concentrations of NP2EO, NP1EO, and BPA were at moderate levels of other areas. The basic water quality parameters (TOC, TN, DO, and pH) play important roles on the distribution, fate, and behavior of phenolic EDCs in the valley.