Risk tolerance and pilot involvement in hazardous events and flight into adverse weather

INTRODUCTION: According to Lopes [Lopes, L.L. (1987). Between hope and fear: The psychology of risk. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 20, 255-295] tolerance of risk may be governed by sensitivity to either the opportunities for gain or threats of loss involved. Methods: In the initial study, qualified pilots were presented with 36 written flight scenarios that varied in the levels of opportunity and threat present. The pilots rated the likelihood that they would undertake each flight. Pilots were largely risk averse, as their ratings were all significantly influenced by threat. Results: The pilots whose ratings were significantly influenced by opportunity had been involved in more hazardous aviation incidents than the other pilots. In the final study, 32 qualified pilots completed both the risk tolerance measure and a simulated flight into adverse weather. The pilots who continued flying into adverse weather were less risk averse compared to the pilots who diverted. This further highlighted the link between risk tolerance and risk-taking, and suggested that some pilots may fly into adverse weather because of a greater tolerance of risk. Impact on Industry:The studies provide evidence that a measure of risk tolerance can predict potential accident involvement amongst general aviation pilots.     

State of the Arctic Conference 2010: International Perspectives on Progress of Research Responsive to Decision-Makers’ Information Needs

The SoA conference emphasized that urgent questions posed by society and decision-makers in response to rapid Arctic change require that Arctic research address the broader concepts of sustainability as well as adaptation to and mitigation of interrelated environmental and socioeconomic change. Murray et al. (submitted) explore progress made in this context. The SoA meeting demonstrated significant progress by the Arctic community of scientists and stakeholders in meeting this challenge, as well as the need to better engage the private sector and find more effective ways to partner with relevant research activities outside of the polar regions.     

Accuracy of ultrasound diagnoses in pregnancies complicated by suspected fetal anomalies

Referral of pregnancies complicated by suspected fetal anomalies to level III perinatal centres for further evaluation and management is increasing as use of real-time ultrasound spreads, but the sensitivity and specificity of the prenatal diagnoses made in this population are unknown. We undertook a prospective study that followed pregnancies referred to a designated programme dealing with suspected fetal abnormalities. Follow-up of 257 pregnancies revealed that 282 separate anomalies were accurately diagnosed in 212 cases. Normal anatomy was correctly predicted in 42 cases, 16 per cent of the referred population. False-positive and false-negative rates were 1·5 per cent (4/257) and 2 per cent (1/46), respectively. However, 37 per cent of those infants born with anomalies had additional problems not prenatally detected by ultrasound. These results indicate that prenatal ultrasound diagnoses are remarkably accurate overall but that they may be insensitive to associated anomalies in individual cases.