太湖流域北部潜在洪涝风险区分析及影响评估

太湖流域历来遭受严重的洪涝灾害,并且近年来有不断加重的趋势。本文选择太湖流域北部的无锡市作为典型研究地区,研究其洪涝的危险性并进行潜在损失评估。人类活动,包括修筑圩区、森林破坏、人口增长、城市化等,对这个地区的洪涝形势有较大的影响;自然条件的变化使河道水位升高,洪涝历时缩短,洪峰增高。本文选择不同回归年(2,5,10,20,50年),结合地理信息系统分析模型,计算了潜在洪涝危险区域和洪涝损失,主要结论为:(1)人类活动已经改变了自然的洪涝形势,增大了汇流和洪涝;(2)洪涝危险区与降雨中心有关;(3)筑圩成功地保护了圩内的土地,缩短了洪涝历时,增高了圩外河道的洪涝水位;(4)经济发展使洪涝损失增加。     

Potential,constrains and solutions for marine aquaculture in Kiel Bay & Fjord

Marine aquaculture is facing a variety of competing uses in densely populated coastal areas such as the coast of Kiel Bay. Thus, a major barrier for extending the marine aquaculture business could be the lack of suitable space for “offshore farming”. Moreover, in public opinion the aquaculture sector is often associated with a negative image derived from environmental concerns. It might therefore be expected that planning aquaculture installations in Kiel Bay & Fjord would face resistance both from other offshore stakeholders and the public. This study therefore addressed the question whether arguments and criteria can be found that may contribute to a greater support and positive image of local aquaculture enterprise, thus fostering political support for this sector as well. Indeed, a widespread regional survey showed less public reservation towards aqua-cultural business in Kiel Fjord than initially expected. However, expanding the entrepreneurship in the regional aqua-cultural sector will only be successful if the installations can avoid a significant deterioration of the water quality in Kiel Fjord, e.g. through excessive emissions of nutrients from net cages. An important step forward toward this goal is the concept of IMTA = Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture. The IMTA concept spatially integrates nutrient emitting installations such as fish net cages with installations of nutrient extracting organisms, e.g. mussels and algae. Based on spatial analyses of marine environmental parameters and through modelling of nutrient mass balances (emitted versus extracted nutrient quantities) possible locations, types and sizes of aquaculture installations can be determined.     

Levels of community participation and satisfaction with decentralized wildlife management in Idodi-Pawaga Wildlife Management Area,Tanzania

Participatory approaches to conservation are viewed as a plausible alternative to the old ‘fortress conservation’ approach. The design and implementation of these approaches in developing countries have tended to embrace community participation through decentralized governance mechanisms in the past three decades. However, sustainable conservation approaches that maintain community livelihoods while conserving biodiversity are challenged with meeting both objectives. In addressing this challenge, little attention has been given to an empirical analysis of community’s satisfaction levels on how they participated in the design and implementation of this approach. In this article, we use a mixed method approach using both quantitative and qualitative data to examine levels of satisfaction and participation of local communities in the Idodi-Pawaga Wildlife Management Area (WMA), south-western Tanzania. We find that social economic factors (e.g. age, household size, gender, number of years living in the same location and participation/non-participation) influence, in different ways, the satisfaction levels of community’s participation towards the WMA creation. Due to inadequate participation, we find that the WMA design and implementation process failed from the beginning to actively involve the local communities and this has resulted in the near absence of the promised economic benefits from wildlife conservation. We suggest that participation should go beyond the simple information sharing to actively engage the local communities in key planning activities from the beginning of any WMA programme. It is also important to take into consideration their levels of satisfaction with the process of decision-making if meaningful decentralized governance is to be achieved.