An Assessment of the Emissions Inventory Processing Systems EMS-2001 and SMOKE in Grid-Based Air Quality Models

Abstract

In the United States, emission processing models such as Emissions Modeling System-2001 (EMS-2001), Emissions Preprocessor System-Version 2.5 (EPS2.5), and the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model are currently being used to generate gridded, hourly, speciated emission inputs for urban and regional-scale photochemical models from aggregated pollutant inventories. In this study, two models, EMS-2001 and SMOKE, were applied with their default internal data sets to process a common inventory database for a high ozone (O₃) episode over the eastern United States using the Carbon Bond IV (CB4) chemical speciation mechanism. A comparison of the emissions processed by these systems shows differences in all three of the major processing steps performed by the two models (i.e., in temporal allocation, spatial allocation, and chemical speciation). Results from a simulation with a photochemical model using these two sets of emissions indicate differences on the order of ±20 ppb in the predicted 1-hr daily maximum O₃ concentrations. It is therefore critical to develop and implement more common and synchronized temporal, spatial, and speciation cross-reference systems such that the processes within each emissions model converge toward reasonably similar results. This would also help to increase confidence in the validity of photochemical grid model results by reducing one aspect of modeling uncertainty.     

Arctic Lake Physical Processes and Regimes with Implications for Winter Water Availability and Management in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska

Lakes are dominant landforms in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) as well as important social and ecological resources. Of recent importance is the management of these freshwater ecosystems because lakes deeper than maximum ice thickness provide an important and often sole source of liquid water for aquatic biota, villages, and industry during winter. To better understand seasonal and annual hydrodynamics in the context of lake morphometry, we analyzed lakes in two adjacent areas where winter water use is expected to increase in the near future because of industrial expansion. Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery acquired between 1985 and 2007 were analyzed and compared with climate data to understand interannual variability. Measured changes in lake area extent varied by 0.6% and were significantly correlated to total precipitation in the preceding 12 months (p < 0.05). Using this relation, the modeled lake area extent from 1985 to 2007 showed no long-term trends. In addition, high-resolution aerial photography, bathymetric surveys, water-level monitoring, and lake-ice thickness measurements and growth models were used to better understand seasonal hydrodynamics, surface area-to-volume relations, winter water availability, and more permanent changes related to geomorphic change. Together, these results describe how lakes vary seasonally and annually in two critical areas of the NPRA and provide simple models to help better predict variation in lake-water supply. Our findings suggest that both overestimation and underestimation of actual available winter water volume may occur regularly, and this understanding may help better inform management strategies as future resource use expands in the NPRA.     

Modeling In-Use Vehicle Emissions and the Effects of Inspection and Maintenance Programs

Different ways for modeling the impact of vehicle emission inspection and maintenance programs on fleet hydrocarbon emissions are examined. A dynamic model is developed for forecasting fleet emissions in which individual vehicle performance is modeled as a stochastic process and vehicle emissions are tracked over time. Emissions inspection and repair are incorporated into the model, allowing for the stochastic aspects of both testing and repair. This model is compared to EPA’s model for evaluating the impact of vehicle emissions inspection and maintenance. We find that the way vehicle emission equipment deterioration overtime is modeled is important for forecasting emissions from the fleet and for assessing the success of inspection and maintenance programs. For inspection programs, we find that factors such as the proportion of vehicles tested, and repair effectiveness and duration have the greatest impact on emission reductions. The ability of different emission testing regimes to identify polluting vehicles has less impact on a program’s overall potential for emissions reduction. Policy recommendations for I&M testing and predictions of emission reduction credits from these tests will depend in important ways on the methods used in the underlying emissions models.     

The sex in short supply for matings varies over small spatial scales in a katydid (Kawanaphilanartee, Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae)

In katydids such as Kawanaphilanartee, a female bias in the operational sex ratio (OSR) results in female competition for mates and male choice of mates. Previous work showed that the excess of sexually active females occurs when food availability is low, in part because less food increases the propensity of females to mate as they forage for the large edible spermatophores produced by males. In this study with K.nartee, a pollen-feeding species, we estimate natural variation in numbers of sexually active males and females by assessing male calling activity and the propensity of females to respond to experimental calling males. We found an excess of sexually active males at a site with many flowers and an excess of sexually active females at a site with few flowers about 900 m away. Between-site differences in gut masses of calling males were consistent with the hypothesis that pollen availability controls OSR. Finally, at a third site where flowers were at first scarce, we found that the initial excess in sexually active females changed to an excess of sexually active males after a clump of grass-trees flowered. The mean gut mass of all sampled males from this site increased after flowering. The large variation in OSR that we document for K. nartee highlights the importance of identifying the appropriate spatial and temporal scales over which OSRs are measured in studies of factors controlling sexual selection. Received: 13 May 1997 / Accepted after revision: 27 October 1997     

Rapid sexing of human embryos by non-radioactive in situ hybridization: Potential for preimplantation diagnosis of X-linked disorders

Sixty spare human embryos at various stages of preimplantation development were prepared for cytogenetic analysis. Fluorescent staining of those with metaphases allowed scoring for the presence of a Y chromosome. In situ hybridization was then performed using a biotinylated Y-specific sequence, and the probe was detected by a standard streptavidinlinked alkaline phosphatase system. This enabled comparison of the chromosomal sex with that obtained after in situ hybridization in 28 embryos, and the sexing result obtained by the two methods was concordant in all cases. A further 21 embryos in which no metaphase chromosomes were obtained were sexed by biotinylated in situ hybridization only. Overall, 66 per cent of male interphase nuclei demonstrated a Y-specific hybridization signal. Results were obtained in under 24 h, which may permit the sexing of an embryo biopsied during cleavage and the transfer of sexed embryos at the blastocyst stage to the mother's uterus in the same cycle as oocytes are collected for in vitro fertilization.     

Mosaicism of autosomes and sex chromosomes in morphologically normal,monospermic preimplantation human embryos

We have previously detected chromosome abnormalities in human embryos whilst identifying the sex for preimplantation diagnosis of X-linked disease. In this study we assess the incidence of these abnormalities, both for sex chromosomes and autosomes 1 and 17, using dual fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH). Sixty-nine normally fertilized embryos of good morphology at the 6–10 cell stage (day 3 post-insemination) were examined. The embryos were spread whole using HCl and Tween 20 to dissolve the cytoplasm. Thirty-four embryos were analysed for the sex chromosomes and 35 for autosomes 1 and 17. All probes were directly labelled with fluorochromes allowing analysis in 2 h. Control lymphocytes demonstrated that the probes were of high specificity. For the sex chromosomes, five embryos were mosaic (15 per cent) with the remaining 29 being uniformly XX or XY. In no case was an XX nucleus found in an otherwise XY embryo, indicating that even though mosaicism for the sex chromosomes is present, such abnormalities would not lead to a misdiagnosis of sex. For the autosomes, 16 embryos were abnormal (46 per cent); one embryo was triploid, one was monosomic for chromosome 1, and ten others were diploid mosaics (three diploid/aneuploid, three diploid/polyploid, and four diploid/haploid). A further four embryos had variable chromosome numbers in the majority of nuclei which appeared to be the result of uncontrolled mitotic division. The presence of haploidy or double monosomy, which occurred in 15 per cent of nuclei, has important implications for the diagnosis of trisomies and dominant disorders.     

PISCES: Tracking Trace Chemicals in Power Plants

PISCES, Power Plant Integrated Systems: Chemical Emissions Studies, is a multimedia chemical species project on plant emissions. Products generated in the PISCES project will help utilities design and operate their plants to minimize chemical species emissions. PISCES takes a holistic approach to the control of toxics by acknowledging that a chemical removed from a gas stream will appear in a liquid or solid stream.     

Durability of Textile Filter Media

A critically Important primary requirement of filter media is resistance to the chemical and physical effects created by a processed aerosol. Filter media life or durability can be extended substantially by recognizing and investigating problem areas and by evaluating and resolving the problems to achieve maximum cost and performance benefits.