Modeling species-habitat relationships with spatially autocorrelated observation data.

Spatial autocorrelation in wildlife observation data arises when extrinsic environmental processes and patterns that influence the spatial distribution of wildlife are themselves spatially structured, or when species are subject to intrinsic population processes, causing contagion or dispersion effects. Territoriality, Allee effects, dispersal limitations, and social clustering are examples of intrinsic processes. Both forms of autocorrelation can violate the assumptions of generalized linear regression models, resulting in biased estimation of model coefficients and diminished predictive performance. Such consequences may be avoided for extrinsic autocorrelation when autocorrelated environmental variables are available for use as model covariates, whereas intrinsic spatial autocorrelation requires an alternative modeling approach. The autologistic model provides an approach suited to the binary observations often obtained in wildlife surveys, but its performance has not been tested across widely varying sampling intensities or strengths of intrinsic spatial structure. Here we use simulated data to test the autologistic model under a range of sampling conditions. The autologistic model obtains better fits and substantially better predictive performance than the standard logistic regression model over the full range of sampling designs and intensities tested. We provide a simple Bayesian implementation of the autologistic model, which until now has not been achieved with standard statistical software alone. A step-by-step procedure is given for characterizing and modeling spatial autocorrelation in binary observation data, along with computer code for fitting autologistic models in WinBUGS, a freeware Bayesian analysis package. This approach avoids normal approximations to the pseudo-likelihood, in contrast to previous Bayesian applications of the autologistic model. We provide a sample application of the autologistic model, fitted to survey data for a gliding marsupial in southeastern Australia.     

考虑火源位置的船舶机舱火-热-结构耦合研究

为准确分析真实火灾条件下的船舶机舱结构力学行为,克服传统标准温升法的缺陷,提出基于火灾动力学模拟器(FDS)和ANSYS的火-热-结构力学耦合分析方法;采用FDS仿真模拟真实火灾场景,获得近机舱内壁面处时变温度场信息,以此温度场信息为边界条件,传输到结构力学行为仿真软件ANSYS中,对机舱结构加载温度荷载并进行瞬态热分...     

基于社区参与的乡村旅游研究——以江西婺源县为例

对乡村旅游的概念进行了界定,分析指出社区参与是乡村旅游可持续发展的必然选择,认为利益相关者的利益分配机制理论研究不足是社区参与乡村旅游的制约瓶颈.以江西省婺源县为例,剖析了婺源县在乡村旅游发展过程中的成功之处与存在的问题,并对婺源县乡村旅游可持续发展给出了几点战略性思考.研究的意义在于,能给今后学界对社区参与乡村旅游的理论和实践研究进行导向,以期研究取得突破性的进展.     

改进的一次二阶矩计算埋地管道失效概率方法及其应用

为探究不同影响因素对埋地管道运行安全的影响,基于改进的一次二阶矩计算方法,综合考虑埋地管道环向受力和纵向受力的特性,依据应力-强度理论和钢制管道结构设计规范建立了埋地管道失效结构功能函数;通过对ABAQUS软件中的UVARM模块进行二次开发,建立了腐蚀、温度和不均匀沉降耦合作用下的三维管道-地层整体模型,模拟不同管道参数下的管道状况.运用该方法对工程实例进行了计算,分析可靠指标和失效概率的分布情况.结果表明:埋地管道工作内压与管道失效概率呈正相关关系,管道壁厚和管径与失效概率呈负相关关系;在影响参数变化相同的条件下,管道中部失效概率变化最快,两端的失效概率变化较慢.该模型计算结果体现了管道不同部位失效概率的特点,在管道设计、维护和风险评估方面有一定的借鉴意义.     

Decomposition of hexachlorobenzene over Al2O3 supported metal oxide catalysts

Decomposition of hexachlorobenzene(HCB)was investigated over several metal oxides(i.e.,MgO,CaO,BaO,La2O3,CeO2,MnO2, Fe2O3,and Co3O4)supported on Al2O3,which was achieved in closed system at a temperature of 300°C.Catalysts were prepared by incipient wetness impregnation with different metal oxides loading and impregnating solvents.The decomposition effciency of different catalysts for this reaction depends on the nature of the metal oxide used,and Al2O3 supported La2O3 was found to be the most active one.Pe...     

层状半空间中沉积谷地对入射SV波的放大作用——时域解答

利用傅里叶变换方法,研究了层状半空间中沉积谷地对SV波的时域散射问题。首先,通过傅里叶变换将时域问题转换为离散的频域问题,针对有效频率成分采用间接边界元方法求解频域响应,再将所得频域结果进行傅里叶逆变换得到时域解答。通过与已有结果的对比,验证了方法的正确性。最后,以基岩上单一土层中沉积谷地在R icker波入射下的散射问题为例进行了数值计算分析,结果表明,沉积谷地和土层的存在都会造成振动持续时间的增长;层状半空间中沉积谷地和均匀半空间中沉积谷地对波的放大作用存在显著差别。文中分析了造成该差别的原因,并讨论了覆盖层厚度和刚度对散射效应的影响。     

Metrics of progress in the understanding and management of threats to Australian birds

Although evidence-based approaches have become commonplace for determining the success of conservation measures for the management of threatened taxa, there are no standard metrics for assessing progress in research or management. We developed 5 metrics to meet this need for threatened taxa and to quantify the need for further action and effective alleviation of threats. These metrics (research need, research achievement, management need, management achievement, and percent threat reduction) can be aggregated to examine trends for an individual taxon or for threats across multiple taxa. We tested the utility of these metrics by applying them to Australian threatened birds, which appears to be the first time that progress in research and management of threats has been assessed for all threatened taxa in a faunal group at a continental scale. Some research has been conducted on nearly three-quarters of known threats to taxa, and there is a clear understanding of how to alleviate nearly half of the threats with the highest impact. Some management has been attempted on nearly half the threats. Management outcomes ranged from successful trials to complete mitigation of the threat, including for one-third of high-impact threats. Progress in both research and management tended to be greater for taxa that were monitored or occurred on oceanic islands. Predation by cats had the highest potential threat score. However, there has been some success reducing the impact of cat predation, so climate change (particularly drought), now poses the greatest threat to Australian threatened birds. Our results demonstrate the potential for the proposed metrics to encapsulate the major trends in research and management of both threats and threatened taxa and provide a basis for international comparisons of evidence-based conservation science.     

Using decision science to evaluate global biodiversity indices

Global biodiversity indices are used to measure environmental change and progress toward conservation goals, yet few indices have been evaluated comprehensively for their capacity to detect trends of interest, such as declines in threatened species or ecosystem function. Using a structured approach based on decision science, we qualitatively evaluated 9 indices commonly used to track biodiversity at global and regional scales against 5 criteria relating to objectives, design, behavior, incorporation of uncertainty, and constraints (e.g., costs and data availability). Evaluation was based on reference literature for indices available at the time of assessment. We identified 4 key gaps in indices assessed: pathways to achieving goals (means objectives) were not always clear or relevant to desired outcomes (fundamental objectives); index testing and understanding of expected behavior was often lacking; uncertainty was seldom acknowledged or accounted for; and costs of implementation were seldom considered. These gaps may render indices inadequate in certain decision-making contexts and are problematic for indices linked with biodiversity targets and sustainability goals. Ensuring that index objectives are clear and their design is underpinned by a model of relevant processes are crucial in addressing the gaps identified by our assessment. Uptake and productive use of indices will be improved if index performance is tested rigorously and assumptions and uncertainties are clearly communicated to end users. This will increase index accuracy and value in tracking biodiversity change and supporting national and global policy decisions, such as the post-2020 global biodiversity framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.     

国外有机市政固废批处理厌氧消化工艺介绍

批处理厌氧消化工艺是厌氧处理技术的一种,其通过序批式进料、连续式操作的设计,可简化物料的预处理工序和厌氧发酵过程控制,从而达到降低投资成本及运营费用的目的,使其相对其他固废厌氧处理技术形成优势。调整厌氧渗滤液回收循环方式及批处理反应器的数量,可形成一系列改进后的批处理工艺,包括序批式和阶段式的批处理系统。有机市政固废经厌氧消化后,不仅可以减量化及稳定化,而且还可以获取能源及回收有用物质。文章对目前国外主要的有机固废批处理厌氧消化工艺进行了分析,并针对国内的固废特征给出了建议。     

高海拔水电水库温室气体的排放特征——以雅鲁藏布江藏木水库为例

水电水库是大气温室气体的重要来源,在一定程度上影响着区域气候变化.然而目前关于水库温室气体排放的估算仍然存在很大的不确定性,一方面原因是缺失了世界各地山区水库的数据,另一方面原因是未将受水库影响的上下游河道考虑在内.本研究重点关注雅鲁藏布江流域水电水库——藏木水库丰枯水期CO2、CH4和N2O的溶存浓度与扩散通量的时空...