Measuring impacts on species with models and metrics of varying ecological and computational complexity

Approaches to assess the impacts of landscape disturbance scenarios on species range from metrics based on patterns of occurrence or habitat to comprehensive models that explicitly include ecological processes. The choice of metrics and models affects how impacts are interpreted and conservation decisions. We explored the impacts of 3 realistic disturbance scenarios on 4 species with different ecological and taxonomic traits. We used progressively more complex models and metrics to evaluate relative impact and rank of scenarios on the species. Models ranged from species distribution models that relied on implicit assumptions about environmental factors and species presence to highly parameterized spatially explicit population models that explicitly included ecological processes and stochasticity. Metrics performed consistently in ranking different scenarios in order of severity primarily when variation in impact was driven by habitat amount. However, they differed in rank for cases where dispersal dynamics were critical in influencing metapopulation persistence. Impacts of scenarios on species with low dispersal ability were better characterized using models that explicitly captured these processes. Metapopulation capacity provided rank orders that most consistently correlated with those from highly parameterized and data-rich models and incorporated information about dispersal with little additional computational and data cost. Our results highlight the importance of explicitly considering species’ ecology, spatial configuration of habitat, and disturbance when choosing indicators of species persistence. We suggest using hybrid approaches that are a mixture of simple and complex models to improve multispecies assessments.     

雅鲁藏布江中游河流生态系统健康状态对水环境因子的响应

河流生态健康评价是保护河流生物多样性、遏制河流水环境恶化趋势的前提,为探究雅鲁藏布江中游河流生态系统健康状态及其对水环境因子响应机制,于2021年的7月和10月在雅鲁藏布江中游进行浮游植物样品的采集和水环境因子的测定,鉴定浮游植物物种并计算其细胞丰度和生物量,构建浮游植物完整性指数评价该河段河流生态健康状态,分析水环境因子和浮游植物群落时空分布特征、P-IBI值和群落参数与水环境因子的相关性.结果表明,水环境因子在时间上差异不明显,在空间上有显著的差异;浮游植物平均细胞丰度和平均生物量大小为：丰水期>枯水期以及干流>支流,硅藻在群落中占绝对优势,pH和WT是驱动浮游植物时空分布的主要水环境因子;雅鲁藏布江中游生态健康状态整体为"健康-亚健康",河流健康状态枯水期优于丰水期、支流优于干流,EC、TUR、WT、NO₃^--N和NH₄⁺-N是影响该河段生态健康状态的主要水环境因子,可通过影响水体中浮游植物群落演替的方向和速率,参与和影响河流生态系统的物质循环和能量流动过程,驱动了雅鲁藏布江中游河流生态健康状态.     

控释氮肥减量配施对土壤氨挥发和N2 O排放的影响

施用控释氮肥是提高氮素利用效率、减少氮素损失的重要途径.为研究聚合物包膜氮肥与普通尿素配比减量施用对旱作棕壤氨挥发和N₂O排放的影响,利用15N同位素标记技术,通过5个不同氮肥施用量处理,分析施肥后土壤的氨挥发和N₂O排放规律以及玉米的当季氮肥利用率.结果表明:①土壤氨挥发主要出现在施肥后的前2周,普通尿素氨挥发速率最大可达4.04 kg/（hm2·d）,最大值出现在施肥后第7天,施用配比包膜氮肥氨挥发峰值出现时间比普通尿素延迟2 d,且氨挥发总量明显降低,为2.15 kg/（hm2·d）.②对于各处理下的氨挥发总量,无氮处理（CK）为3.69 kg/hm2,常规尿素处理（NU）为18.64 kg/hm2,配比控释氮肥处理（PU1）为9.39 kg/hm2,减量配比控释氮肥处理（PU2）为6.44 kg/hm2,再减量配比控释氮肥处理（PU3）为5.02 kg/hm2.③N₂O排放规律呈现先平稳后升高的趋势,较高的N₂O排放通量集中在施肥后的55~91 d之间.N₂O排放峰值最高的是常规尿素处理,在施肥后第79天出现,达到0.299 mg/（m2·h）,施用配比包膜氮肥N₂O排放峰值均低于常规尿素处理.④施用配比包膜氮肥玉米产量高于普通尿素处理,减量配比包膜氮肥不会降低玉米产量.⑤土壤氨挥发总量与施氮量呈显著正相关.施用配比包膜氮肥相比于普通尿素可显著减少土壤氨挥发,减量配施氮肥相比于全量施肥可显著减少土壤氨挥发.因此,施用配比包膜氮肥,可在保证粮食产量的前提下减少氮肥投入,降低氮肥的气态损失,从而降低环境风险.      

西安市典型道路扬尘排放清单及化学组分

道路扬尘是城市大气颗粒的主要来源之一,扬尘中含有的重金属、碳质组分和水溶性离子会危害人体健康 . 为研究西安市道路扬尘的排放量及颗粒物的化学组分,在西安市环路、主干路、次干路和支路设监测点,采集了 141个道路积尘样品,估算了不同类型道路的积尘负荷 . 采用 AP-42 模型估算了不同类型道路的扬尘排放因子,建立了 2018 年西安市道路扬尘 PM_2.5和 PM₁₀的排放清单,分析了道路扬尘颗粒物的化学组分 . 基于西安市路网分布、GIS信息和车流量对道路扬尘 PM_2.5和 PM₁₀的排放量进行了空间分配 . 结果表明,西安市机动车道、非机动车道和人行道的积尘负荷分别为（0.88±0.83）、（2.62±2.23）和（1.41±1.42）g·m^-2. 按道路长度加权平均的扬尘中 PM_2.5和 PM₁₀的排放因子分别为 0.22和0.93 g·km^-1·veh^-1. 2018 年西安市道路扬尘...     

北京4种阔叶绿篱球的减噪效应及其影响因子

运用AWA6288型多功能声级及TmeRTA音频分析软件等仪器对北京4种常见阔叶绿篱球的减噪功能进行了测定,并对其结构特征进行了定量化统计,以探寻与植物减噪密切相关的影响因子。结果表明：小叶黄杨球（Buxus microphylla）平均相对A声级减噪能力最强,为1．76dB／m;紫叶小檗球（Berberis thunbergii cv．atropurpurea）相对最差,为1．05dB／m。紫叶小檗球与大叶黄杨球（Euonymus japonicus）、小叶黄杨球、金叶女贞球（Ligustrum vicaryi）在平均相对A声级减噪能力、减噪率方面均存在冠著差异。影响单株植物减噪排名前5的相关结构因子分别是树冠体积（0．804）、冠高（0．781）、绿篱高度（0．733）、叶质地（0．690）、平均冠宽（0．679）;叶大小、冠层、叶质地和倾斜状态、叶密度、枝密度5个主因子的累积方差贡献率已达85．233％,在绿化减噪应用中要重点考虑这5个因子。大叶黄杨球平均相对A声级减噪能力随植株大小变化没有显著变化,与树体各结构因子不相关,这可能与研究的样本量较少或者树体结构特征差异不明显有关;影响不同种类植物减噪的相关因子不尽相同。     

Choosing ecosystem service investments that are robust to uncertainty across multiple parameters

Info-gap decision theory facilitates decision making for problems in which uncertainty is large and probability distributions of uncertain variables are unknown. The info-gap framework allows the decision maker to maximize robustness to failure in the presence of uncertainty, where uncertainty is in the parameters of the model and failure is defined as the model output falling below some minimally acceptable performance threshold. Info-gap theory has found particular application to problems in conservation biology and ecological economics. In this study, we applied info-gap theory to an ecosystem services tradeoff case study in which a decision maker aiming to maximize ecosystem service investment returns must choose between two alternative land uses: native vegetation conservation or the establishment of an exotic timber plantation. The uncertain variables are the carbon price and the water price. With a "no-information" uncertainty model that assumes equal relative uncertainty across both variables, info-gap theory identifies a minimally acceptable reward threshold above which conservation is preferred, but below which plantation establishment is preferred. However, with an uncertainty model that allows the carbon price to be substantially more uncertain than the water price, conservation of native vegetation becomes an economically more robust investment option than establishing alien pine plantations. We explored the sensitivity of the results to the use of alternative uncertainty models, including asymmetric uncertainty in individual variables. We emphasize the general finding that the results of info-gap analyses can be sensitive to the choice of uncertainty model and that, therefore, future applications to ecological problems should be careful to incorporate all available qualitative and quantitative information relating to uncertainties or should at least justify the no-information uncertainty model.     

不同原料厌氧发酵及其微生物种群的研究

使用PCR-DGGE技术,对以鸡粪、猪粪、牛粪、秸秆为发酵原料的发酵体系的微生物群落多样性进行了研究.在发酵不同时间取样,进行了日产甲烷量、日产甲烷浓度的变化分析和DGGE分析.结果表明,日产甲烷量整体趋势为猪粪>鸡粪>秸秆>牛粪,日平均产甲烷量分别为2.67、2.24、0.99、0.49L;猪粪、鸡粪、秸秆的日产甲烷浓度在整个发酵周期大多可维持在50%以上,牛粪的日产甲烷浓度大部分时间低于30%;细菌的优势菌群有拟杆菌属(Bacteroidetes)、密螺旋体属(Treponema)、厌氧绳菌科(Anaerolineaceae)等,新增优势菌群有梭菌属(Clostridium)、脱硫叶菌属(Desulfobulbus)、毛螺旋菌科(Lachnospiraceae)、醋弧菌属(Acetivibrio);古菌的优势菌群有甲烷鬃菌属(Methanosaeta)、甲烷八叠球菌属(Methanosarcina)、甲烷八叠球菌目(Methanosarcinales),新增优势菌群有斯氏甲烷球菌属(Methanosphaera stadtmanae).     

大型体育赛事对城市旅游的影响研究——以兰州国际马拉松为例

大型体育赛事的举办对城市旅游业发展具有巨大的刺激作用。以兰州国际马拉松为例,采用2000—2013年兰州旅游人数和旅游收入的统计数据,分析比赛前后几年旅游人数及旅游收入的变化。结果表明,兰州国际马拉松赛事对兰州旅游业发展的拉动作用极为明显。在此基础上,提出作为经济欠发达地区的兰州在发展以体育赛事为主的文化创意产业时所面临的问题及对策。