武汉市都市发展区地表温度季节性空间分布与驱动力分析

基于2015年武汉市都市发展区30 m空间分辨率的Landsat 8遥感影像反演近地表温度(LST),运用地统计学、地理加权回归(GWR)等方法,分析都市发展区、生态绿楔以及主城区四季LST时空分布规律和各驱动因子的作用机制,以期为更全面、科学地规划城市发展空间布局和缓解热岛效应提供借鉴.结果 表明:(1)与单一的普通最小二乘回归(OLS)相比,线性逐步回归(LSR)可以寻找最优的多驱动因子组合模型,与LSR拟合的结果相比,GWR模型R2值提高了0.04～0.09,且AIC值均明显减小;(2) LST存在空间聚集关系,“高-高”聚集主要发生在主城区、新型城镇发展区、主要交通干线沿线等更容易造成高温聚集的人工表面,其中夏季“高-高”聚集网格数最多且占比最大,而“低-低”聚集四季均主要发生在各大湖泊水系;(3)绿楔生态用地降温幅度各异,春季降温幅度不明显,夏季降温幅度最显著,各绿楔生态用地降温均超过2℃,且在一定范围内,LST随着与绿楔距离增大而升高,达到一定距离时,会随着与绿楔距离增加而趋于平缓或呈下降趋势;(4)与前人研究相比,景观格局对LST变化的解释程度整体较低,其原因可能是快速城市化导致人工表面积增加,相应的人工绿地也将增加,使得城市景观格局更加零散,导致LST受多种相互作用因素的影响;(5)影响四季LST的驱动因子空间差异较大,夏季土地覆盖和景观格局与冬季土地覆盖、景观格局和人为活动的回归系数均为正值,说明高温或低温条件下这些驱动因子对全域升温作用明显.     

Applying Statistical Causal Analyses to Agricultural Conservation: A Case Study Examining P Loss Impacts

Estimating the effect of agricultural conservation practices on reducing nutrient loss using observational data can be confounded by factors such as differing crop types and management practices. As we may not have the full knowledge of these confounding factors, conventional statistical meta‐analysis methods can be misleading. We discuss the use of two statistical causal analysis methods for quantifying the effects of water and soil conservation practices in reducing P loss from agricultural fields. With the propensity score method, a subset of data was used to form a treatment group and a control group with similar distributions of confounding factors. With the multilevel modeling method, data were stratified based on important confounding factors, and the conservation practice effect was evaluated for each stratum. Both methods resulted in similar estimates of the conservation practice effect (total P load reduction avg. ~70%). In addition, both methods show evidence of conservation practices reducing the incremental increase in total P export per unit increase in fertilizer application. These results are presented as examples of the types of outcomes provided by statistical causal analyses, not to provide definitive estimates of P loss reduction. The enhanced meta‐analysis methods presented within are applicable for improved assessment of agricultural practices and their effects and can be used for providing realistic parameter values for watershed‐scale modeling.     

浙江省酸雨的空间分布格局及其未来变化趋势预测

利用浙江省1992、2002年的酸雨监测数据,并利用RAINS-ASIA模型模拟了1990-2030年浙江省酸雨前体物(SO2)的排放量,以及酸沉降超临界负荷面积占研究区域面积比例的变化情况.结果表明,浙江省的酸雨分布范围不断扩大、危害程度不断加重;未来一个时期内,SO2排放量都会维持在较高的水平;酸沉降超临界负荷面积所占比例在经历较快的增长阶段之后,会维持在较为恒定的水平,并呈现出明显的时滞性.     

降低FCC再生烟气NOx排放助剂的实验室评价

通过采用ACE装置与烟气NOx分析仪器联用的实验室评价方法,可在更接近实际催化裂化反应-再生过程的条件下,评价助剂对再生烟气中NOx的催化转化性能,同时还可考察助剂的加入对催化裂化产品分布的影响。采用该方法对几种降NOx助剂的性能进行了评价,结果表明,在催化剂体系中含有Pt基CO助燃剂的情况下,加入4％的RDNO;助剂后,烟气NOx降低幅度约30％～40％,且催化裂化产品分布基本不受影响。     

Suppression of precipitation by dust particles originated in the Tibetan Plateau

Dust aerosols play an important role in modulating the hydrologic cycle. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is little polluted by human activities as an ideal site to study the effect of dust aerosol on precipitation. In this study, observational data of dust storms and precipitation in the TP and its vicinities as well as CALIPSO satellite data were used to analyze the distributions and vertical structure of dust storms on the plateau. The results showed that dust storms occur with high frequency and raise dust particles into the troposphere from ground level to a height of 5–9 km to modulate the hydrologic cycle in the TP. There are significant negative correlations between dust aerosol and precipitation in the dust source regions during the period of both 40 and 200 years. It is found that the role of precipitation in suppressing dust storms could be unimportant, while dust aerosol may play an important role in suppressing precipitation in the hinterland of the TP. Our study provides a potential approach to better understand the climate changes in the TP.     

China's grazed temperate grasslands are a net source of atmospheric methane

A budget for the methane (CH₄) cycle in the Xilin River basin of Inner Mongolia is presented. The annual CH₄ budget in this region depends primarily on the sum of atmospheric CH₄ uptake by upland soils, emission from small wetlands, and emission from grazing ruminants (sheep, goats, and cattle). Flux rates for these processes were averaged over multiple years with differing summer rainfall. Although uplands constitute the vast majority of land area, they consume much less CH₄ per unit area than is emitted by wetlands and ruminants. Atmospheric CH₄ uptake by upland soils was ?3.3 and ?4.8 kg CH₄ ha^?1 y^?1 in grazed and ungrazed areas, respectively. Average CH₄ emission was 791.0 kg CH₄ ha^?1 y^?1 from wetlands and 8.6 kg CH₄ ha^?1 y^?1 from ruminants. The basin area-weighted average of all three processes was 6.8 kg CH₄ ha^?1 y^?1, indicating that ruminant production has converted this basin to a net source of atmospheric CH₄. The total CH₄ emission from the Xilin River basin was 7.29 Gg CH₄ y^?1. The current grazing intensity is about eightfold higher than that which would result in a net zero CH₄ flux. Since grazing intensity has increased throughout western China, it is likely that ruminant production has converted China's grazed temperate grasslands to a net source of atmospheric CH₄ overall.     

Hydrogeochemical Indicators of Groundwater Flow Systems in the Yangwu River Alluvial Fan,Xinzhou Basin,Shanxi, China

Based on analysis of groundwater hydrochemical and isotopic indicators, this article aims to identify the groundwater flow systems in the Yangwu River alluvial fan, in the Xinzhou Basin, China. Groundwater δ²H and δ¹⁸O values indicate that the origin of groundwater is mainly from precipitation, with local evaporative influence. d-excess values lower than 10% in most groundwaters suggest a cold climate during recharge in the area. Major ion chemistry, including rCa/rMg and rNa/rCl ratios, show that groundwater salinization is probably dominated by water–rock interaction (e.g., silicate mineral weathering, dissolution of calcite and dolomite and cation exchange) in the Yangwu River alluvial fan, and locally by intensive evapotranspiration in the Hutuo River valley. Cl and Sr concentrations follow an increasing trend in shallow groundwater affected by evaporation, and a decreasing trend in deep groundwater. ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios reflect the variety of lithologies encountered during throughflow. The groundwater flow systems (GFS) of the Yangwu River alluvial fan include local and intermediate flow systems. Hydrogeochemical modeling results, simulated using PHREEQC, reveal water–rock interaction processes along different flow paths. This modeling method is more effective for characterizing flow paths in the intermediate system than in the local system. Artificial exploitation on groundwater in the alluvial fan enhances mixing between different groundwater flow systems.     

The Sustainable Development of ICTs in China： An Empirical Study of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

The wide application of new information and communication technologies （ICTs） has been argued to be critical to business success of small and medium-sized enterprises （SMEs）, especially to those in the developing countries. Drawing upon existing literature, this article will examine the determinants of ICTs application in SMEs in China based on data collected from interviews with top managers and/or owners of 70 SMEs. We identify 20 factors affecting ICTs application in SMEs in China and divide them into four broad categories, namely pressures, firm specific factors, technical factors and local milieu. We also pay special attention to the Chinese business environment affecting ICTs application. Our analysis shows that local ICT infrastructure, external pressures from competitors and ICT knowledge of employees are the determinants of Internet application by SMEs, while product characteristics and market target are important factors of e-commerce adoption.