Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

High and low value fish chains in the Mekong Delta: challenges for livelihoods and governance

This paper investigates the structure, function and wealth distribution within the Pangasius hypophthalmus and Henicorhynchus spp./Labiobarbus spp. value chains in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. The analysis is driven by key questions relating to the form and function of value chains, their contribution to the livelihoods of farmers and fishers, the effectiveness of government policy and the potential for value chain governance mechanisms, such as contracts and certification, to steer towards sustainable production. The results indicate that actors in the high value Pangasius hypopthalmus export chain have a higher potential income, but face considerably higher economic vulnerability from global markets. Alternatively, Henichorhychus/Labiobarbus spp. fishers are severely constrained in their ability to negotiate higher prices for their fish but appear to be less vulnerable to economic and environmental change. The paper concludes that for value chain governance to improve the livelihoods of fishers and farmers in both high and low value chains, new arrangements are needed that better accommodate customary institutions and informal market relations.     

Overcoming latecomer disadvantage through learning processes: Taiwan’s venture into wind power development

Research into national innovation systems (NISs) has received extensive academic and policy attention, and is especially relevant with latecomer countries seeking to innovate in challenging industrial environments. In playing catch up with their early industrializing counterparts, methods of learning take on increased importance in determining industrial success for latecomers. The wind turbine technology innovation system is one that is highly dependent on both the extent of the national learning processes and the strength of the national social-institutional setting. This research investigates the case of Taiwan, a country which has embarked on a program to build its national innovative capacity in wind turbine technologies with specific emphasis on Taiwan’s social sector. Within this system, the spotlight will be on four types of learning processes that interplay during wind turbine development: learning by searching, learning by doing, learning by using, and learning by interacting. Through a case study of the emergence of Taiwan’s burgeoning large-scale wind power technology initiatives, the paper aims to add to the understanding on how methods of learning impact upon the success of innovation systems. The findings show that the industry’s future prospects are constrained because of the limited learning by interacting processes between turbine component producers, turbine owners, and researchers and because of weaknesses in the institutional framework. This research also recognizes the importance that culture has on dominant forms of learning.     

Sustainable nations: what do aggregate indexes tell us?

What is a ‘sustainable nation’ and how can we identify and rank ‘sustainable nations?’ Are nations producing and consuming in a sustainable way? Although several aggregate indexes have been proposed to answer such questions, comprehensive and internationally comparable data are not available for most of these. This paper quantitatively compares three aggregate indexes of sustainability: the World Bank’s ‘Genuine Savings’ measure, the ‘Ecological Footprint,’ and the ‘Environmental Sustainability Index.’ These three indexes are available for a large number of countries and also seem to be the most influential among the aggregate indexes. This paper first discusses the main limitations and weaknesses of each of these indexes. Subsequently, it shows that rankings of sustainable nations and aggregate assessments of unsustainable world population and world GDP shares vary considerably among these indexes. This disagreement leads to suggestions for analysis and policy. One important insight is that climate change, arguable the most serious threat currently faced by humanity, is not or arbitrarily captured by the indexes.     

Economic growth and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions

This article considers a planner’s optimum control exercise with environmental pollution and derives a testable link between the growth rates of consumption and pollution. The link is then empirically estimated for the case of CO₂ emissions for a sample consisting of the union of top 25 countries in terms of CO₂ emissions, population and per capita GNP. The analysis suggests that the interrelationship between the growth rates of CO₂ emission and economic development is mostly significant for countries that have a high level of CO₂ emissions and population.     

Do EU pesticide standards promote environmentally-friendly production of fresh export vegetables in developing countries? The evidence from Kenyan green bean industry

Developed countries are major markets for developing country fresh produce. Demand by developed country consumers for spotless produce has encouraged developing country consumers to rely increasingly on pesticides in producing fresh export vegetables. However developed country pesticide standards enacted in response to reports of increased farmer and farm worker pesticide poisoning and the food safety scandals of the 1980s and 1990s require changes in the way growers use pesticides. The EU has especially developed stringent food safety standards relating to, among other things, pesticide usage. Under EU pesticide standards (EU-PS) farmers are trained by their buyers on safe use of pesticides and then closely monitored under contract. This paper looks at the impact of these standards on developing country farmers’ use of alternative pest management practices, pesticide protective clothing and the actual usage of pesticides. It finds that compliance with EU-PS increases the use of alternative pest management practices and protective clothing. However, EU-PS has mixed effect on the quantity of pesticides used. The paper also finds that farmer’s education and access to information play an important role in the use of alternative pest management practices. The paper concludes that EU-PS encourage the use of alternative pest management practices and pesticide protective gear in production of fresh export vegetables. The findings imply that EU-PS promote environmentally-friendly methods of production of fresh export vegetables in developing countries.     

Ecological Function Zoning for Environmental Planning at Different Levels

Environmental planning at different levels has been called for by environmental departments in China during last years to integrate environment consideration to economic development. Based on the accomplished environmental planning practice in Xiamen China, the paper suggests a general environmental planning process with ecological function zoning as its key steps, at the same time an effective method for ecological function zoning was formulated. The case studies of Dongfu suburban town environmental planning and Xiamen eco-city conceptual planning indicate that scientifically sound results of ecological function zoning can contribute to improving not only the adaptability and acceptability of environmental planning, also the environmental management and the decision-making. The experience shows that the ecological function zoning methods should be applied according to the principles of adaptive management, resource-based and community-based, so that it can integrate science into decision-making process, avoiding both narrow-minded viewpoints of planners and natural resource use conflicts among variety of stakeholders. Problems to be resolved in the future are also pointed out in the ending part.     

太湖地区典型小流域非点源污染物流失规律 --以宜兴梅林小流域为例

由农业产生的非点源污染是湖泊的主要污染源。为了研究太湖流域非点源污染负荷流失规律,选择了宜兴梅林小流域为研究对象,对降雨过程中径流流量及其污染物浓度随降雨—径流变化过程进行监测研究。采用统计和系统分析方法,建立径流量和非点源污染负荷输出量之间的数学统计模型,得出该流域非点源污染物流失规律,此方法可以推广到与该流域相似的其它地区的非点源污染研究中,应用于太湖流域水污染综合治理。     

我国循环经济的发展模式

循环经济发展模式主要是指循环经济的产业发展模式和区域发展模式。根据我国循环经济的内涵、国际做法和国内相关实践探索经验,我国循环经济的产业发展模式涉及生产和消费两个重点领域和四个重点产业。四个重点产业是生态工业、生态农业、绿色服务业和废弃物再利用、资源化及无害化处置产业。循环经济区域发展模式是在区域基础设施体系和生态系统支撑下的两个重点领域和四个重点产业的有机组合和共生。是区域可持续发展的核心组成部分。区域基础设施体系也是应用循环经济原理的重要领域。以资源能源离效和环境影响最小为特征。在目前的实践中。我国出现了三种将发展循环经济作为推动区域可持续发展的助推器而引发的区域社会经济发展战略转型模式：东部发达地区的自发转型模式、辽宁资源型地区的转型模式和西部地区典型的跨越发展转型模式。