Overview and definition of risk: Its assessment and management

Risk assessment includes both risk estimation (identifying hazards and estimating their outcomes and probabilities) and risk evaluation (determining the significance or value of risks to those concerned with or affected by the decision). Risk estimation is about situations, and risk evaluation about the effect on people. Few situations are absolutely safe. Risks need to be estimated, and for many kinds of risk (e.g., exposures to potentially toxic substances or to potentially catastrophic situations) an expert view has to be formed, which must take account of associated uncertainties. Different sections of the public perceive risk in different ways, and regard some risks more seriously than the expert estimates. Thus studies of risk perception form a further input into the decision-making process. Another input is the benefit of the activity. A regulatory framework consistent with the reality of risk estimation has been proposed. Since risks and benefits fall on different parts of the community, the decision process is essentially political, though it must be informed scientifically. How the decision is taken will depend on national governmental practices.     

National estimates of outdoor air toxics concentrations

The Clean Air Act identifies 189 hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), or "air toxics," associated with a wide range of adverse human health effects. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has conducted a modeling study with the Assessment System for Population Exposure Nationwide (ASPEN) to gain a greater understanding of the spatial distribution of concentrations of these HAPs resulting from contributions of multiple emission sources. The study estimates year 1990 long-term outdoor concentrations of 148 air toxics for each census tract in the continental United States, utilizing a Gaussian air dispersion modeling approach. Ratios of median national modeled concentrations to estimated emissions indicate that emission totals without consideration of emission source type can be a misleading indicator of air quality. The results also indicate priorities for improvements in modeling methodology and emissions identification. Model performance evaluation suggests a tendency for underprediction of observed concentrations, which is likely due, at least in part, to a number of limitations of the Gaussian modeling formulation. Emissions estimates for HAPs have a high degree of uncertainty and contribute to discrepancies between modeled and monitored concentration estimates. The model's ranking of concentrations among monitoring sites is reasonably good for most of the gaseous HAPs evaluated, with ranking accuracy ranging from 66 to 100%.     

Estimating Floodwater Depths from Flood Inundation Maps and Topography

Information on flood inundation extent is important for understanding societal exposure, water storage volumes, flood wave attenuation, future flood hazard, and other variables. A number of organizations now provide flood inundation maps based on satellite remote sensing. These data products can efficiently and accurately provide the areal extent of a flood event, but do not provide floodwater depth, an important attribute for first responders and damage assessment. Here we present a new methodology and a GIS‐based tool, the Floodwater Depth Estimation Tool (FwDET), for estimating floodwater depth based solely on an inundation map and a digital elevation model (DEM). We compare the FwDET results against water depth maps derived from hydraulic simulation of two flood events, a large‐scale event for which we use medium resolution input layer (10 m) and a small‐scale event for which we use a high‐resolution (LiDAR; 1 m) input. Further testing is performed for two inundation maps with a number of challenging features that include a narrow valley, a large reservoir, and an urban setting. The results show FwDET can accurately calculate floodwater depth for diverse flooding scenarios but also leads to considerable bias in locations where the inundation extent does not align well with the DEM. In these locations, manual adjustment or higher spatial resolution input is required.     

The effect of different educational interventions on schoolchildren's knowledge of earthquake protective behaviour in Israel

Knowledge of appropriate behaviour during an earthquake is crucial for prevention of injury and loss of life. The Israeli Home Front Command conducts a yearly earthquake education programme in all Israeli schools, using three types of educational interventions: lectures, drills and a combination of the two. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of these interventions in providing students with knowledge. We distributed a questionnaire to 2,648 children from the 5th and 6th grades in 120 schools nationwide. Knowledge scores for both 5th and 6th grades were increased, regardless of type of intervention, compared to the non-exposure group. A combined intervention of lectures and drills resulted in the highest knowledge scores. Our findings suggest that for the age group studied a combination of lectures and drills will likely prepare students best for how to behave in the event of an earthquake.     

Transforming systems of consumption and production for achieving the sustainable development goals: moving beyond efficiency

The United Nations formulated the sustainable development goals (SDGs) in 2015 as a comprehensive global policy framework for addressing the most pressing social and environmental challenges currently facing humanity. In this paper, we analyse SDG 12, which aims to “ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns.” Despite long-standing political recognition of this objective, and ample scientific evidence both on its importance and on the efficacy of various ways of promoting it, the SDGs do not provide clear goals or effective guidance on how to accomplish this urgently needed transformation. Drawing from the growing body of research on sustainable consumption and production (SCP), the paper identifies two dominant vantage points—one focused on promoting more efficient production methods and products (mainly through technological improvement and informed consumer choice) and the other stressing the need to consider also overall volumes of consumption, distributional issues, and related social and institutional changes. We label these two approaches efficiency and systemic. Research shows that while the efficiency approach contains essential elements of a transition to sustainability, it is by itself highly unlikely to bring about sustainable outcomes. Concomitantly, research also finds that volumes of consumption and production are closely associated with environmental impacts, indicating a need to curtail these volumes in ways that safeguard social sustainability, which is unlikely to be possible without a restructuring of existing socioeconomic arrangements. Analysing how these two perspectives are reflected in the SDGs framework, we find that in its current conception, it mainly relies on the efficiency approach. On the basis of this assessment, we conclude that the SDGs represent a partial and inadequate conceptualisation of SCP which will hamper implementation. Based on this determination, this paper provides some suggestions on how governments and other actors involved in SDGs operationalisation could more effectively pursue SCP from a systemic standpoint and use the transformation of systems of consumption and production as a lever for achieving multiple sustainability objectives.     

Indoor/Outdoor Measurements of Volatile Organic Compounds in the Kanawha Valley of West Virginia

The Kanawha Valley region of West Virginia which is comprised of Charleston and surrounding communities Is the center of a heavily industrialized area known for its chemical manufacturing. As part of a larger study designed to investigate the Impact of the chemical industry on human exposures to volatile organic compounds (VOC), a study of the relationship between indoor and outdoor concentrations was conducted. Thirty-five homes were selected for monitoring from among volunteers; approximately ten in each of three distinct population-industry centers and four outside the Valley to act as controls. Monitoring was performed using passive, badge samplers with a three-week monitoring period. Two separate questionnaires were administered: one for characterization of the residence; and one to characterize source use during monitoring. Participants were also asked to keep a record of their activities with respect to in-home, outdoors and other Indoor environments. Analysis of the samplers was performed by solvent extraction followed by gas chromatography using a flame-ionization detector. Results suggest that indoor VOC concentrations are higher than outdoor concentrations. Additionally, certain ventilation-related parameters were identified that afforded some predictive power for indoor concentrations. No statistically significant differences between regions were identified.     

Establishment of a constructed wetland in extreme dryland

Background, aim, and scope

The project was set to construct an extensive wetland in the southernmost region of Israel at Kibbutz Neot Smadar (30°02′45″ N and 35°01′19″ E). The results of the first period of monitoring, summary, and perspectives are presented. The constructed wetland (CW) was built and the subsequent monitoring performed in the framework of the Southern Arava Sustainable Waste Management Plan, funded by the EU LIFE Fund. The specific aims were: (1) To end current sewage disposal and pollution of the ground, the aquifer, and the dry river bed (wadi) paths by biologically treating the sewage as part of the creation of a sustainable wetland ecosystem. (2) Serve as an example of CW in the Negev highlands and the Arava Valley climates for neighboring communities and as a test ground for plants and building methods appropriate to hyper arid climate. (3) Serve as an educational resource and tourist attraction for groups to learn about water reuse, recycling, local wildlife and migrating birds, including serving the heart of a planned Ecological–Educational Bird Park. This report is intended to allow others who are planning similar systems in hyper arid climates to learn from our experience.

Materials and methods

The project is located in an extreme arid desert with less than 40 mm of rain annually and temperature ranges of ?5°C to +42°C. The site receives 165–185 m³ of municipal and agricultural wastes daily, including cowshed and goat wastes and winery outflow.

Results

The CW establishment at Neot Smadar was completed in October 2006. For 8 months, clean water flowed through the system while the plants were taking root. In June 2007, the wetland was connected to the oxidation pond and full operation began. Because of seepage and evaporation, during the first several months, the water level was not high enough to allow free flow from one bed to the next. To bed A, the water was pumped periodically from the oxidation pond (Fig. 1) and from there flowed by gravitation through the rest of the system. The initial results of the monitoring are promising. In nearly all measurements, the system succeeded as expected to reduce levels of contaminants at least to the level acceptable for irrigating fruit trees and often to the level of unlimited irrigation. The introduction of the plants in the system and their physiological performance were evaluated and were found to correlate well to the quality of water in the various beds.

Discussion

It should be said at the outset that evaluation of the performance of a CW system is a long-term process. Thus, the main aim of this report is to present the problems, difficulties, preliminary results, and concepts concerned with the first stage of establishment of CW in an extremely dry region.

Conclusions

The CW system was designed to dispose of municipal and agricultural wastes in a way that not merely reduces pollution, but adds to environmental quality by creating accessible parkland for local residents and tourists. Several factors affected the performance of the system at the initial stages of operation: ecological balance between microbes and plants, big seasonal variations, seepage and evaporation reduced the flow in the initial operation of the system. Despite the initial difficulties, the quality of water coming out the system is acceptable for irrigation.

Recommendations and perspectives

The CW can function well under extreme dryland conditions. The oxidation pond was the major source of evaporation and bad odors. Therefore, alternatives to the oxidation pond are needed. Cost effectiveness of the system still has to be evaluated systematically.     

Beyond the Prevention of Harm: Animal Disease Policy as a Moral Question

European animal disease policy seems to find its justification in a “harm to other” principle. Limiting the freedom of animal keepers—e.g., by culling their animals—is justified by the aim to prevent harm, i.e., the spreading of the disease. The picture, however, is more complicated. Both during the control of outbreaks and in the prevention of notifiable, animal diseases the government is confronted with conflicting claims of stakeholders who anticipate running a risk to be harmed by each other, and who ask for government intervention. In this paper, we first argue that in a policy that aims to prevent animal diseases, the focus shifts from limiting “harm” to weighing conflicting claims with respect to “risks of harm.” Therefore, we claim that the harm principle is no longer a sufficient justification for governmental intervention in animal disease prevention. A policy that has to deal with and distribute conflicting risks of harm needs additional value assumptions that guide this process of assessment and distribution. We show that currently, policies are based on assumptions that are mainly economic considerations. In order to show the limitations of these considerations, we use the interests and position of keepers of backyard animals as an example. Based on the problems they faced during and after the recent outbreaks, we defend the thesis that in order to develop a sustainable animal disease policy other than economic assumptions need to be taken into account.     

Fundamental Moral Attitudes to Animals and Their Role in Judgment: An Empirical Model to Describe Fundamental Moral Attitudes to Animals and Their Role in Judgment on the Culling of Healthy Animals During an Animal Disease Epidemic

In this paper, we present and defend the theoretical framework of an empirical model to describe people’s fundamental moral attitudes (FMAs) to animals, the stratification of FMAs in society and the role of FMAs in judgment on the culling of healthy animals in an animal disease epidemic. We used philosophical animal ethics theories to understand the moral basis of FMA convictions. Moreover, these theories provide us with a moral language for communication between animal ethics, FMAs, and public debates. We defend that FMA is a two-layered concept. The first layer consists of deeply felt convictions about animals. The second layer consists of convictions derived from the first layer to serve as arguments in a debate on animal issues. In a debate, the latter convictions are variable, depending on the animal issue in a specific context, time, and place. This variability facilitates finding common ground in an animal issue between actors with opposing convictions.